2+2 at the WSOP ME

[pryor15]

i suspect i may have missed a prev thread, but whatever. i was thinking about this last night, what is the consensus on the odds of a 2+2er winning the main event. and just to clarify, let's say anyone w/ more than 200 posts. 4-1? 8-1? higher? discuss.

[RicktheRuler]

[ QUOTE ]
i suspect i may have missed a prev thread, but whatever. i was thinking about this last night, what is the consensus on the odds of a 2+2er winning the main event. and just to clarify, let's say anyone w/ more than 200 posts. 4-1? 8-1? higher? discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winning the ME? 4:1 or 8:1? Phil Ivey is 25:1 to make the final table. I will bet you almost any amount that a 2+2er does not win.

[pryor15]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i suspect i may have missed a prev thread, but whatever. i was thinking about this last night, what is the consensus on the odds of a 2+2er winning the main event. and just to clarify, let's say anyone w/ more than 200 posts. 4-1? 8-1? higher? discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winning the ME? 4:1 or 8:1? Phil Ivey is 25:1 to make the final table. I will bet you almost any amount that a 2+2er does not win.

[/ QUOTE ]

just to clarify, i don't mean a specific 2+2er, but the 'field'. there's gotta be a bunch of us playing. (not me, sadly, but a bunch anyway)

my math's not good on a saturday, but if raymer's 325:1 and daniel n.'s 200:1 and sklanky's 700:1, then combined they're what?

edit: daniel's got much fewer posts than i thought.

[MicroBob]

Of course, this brings up the question of How many 2+2'ers with 200+ posts will be playing the main-event in the first place.


Do we have 200 or so?



Also - since when does Daniel count as a 2+2'er. he's stopped by here a few times but he doesn't even have more than 10-15 posts does he?
FWIW - I also would not consider Greenstein to be a 2+2'er either.

Sklansky and Raymer obviously are though.

[The Armchair]

There are probably 20 or so 2+2ers in the ME. Maybe significantly more, hard to say. Just based on the # of entrants alone, I think you have to start it at about 100:1 -- but 8:1 is nuts.

[pryor15]

yeah, i thought he was around more. my bad. that changes things a lot. i was thinking we had 200-300 including daniel, but apparantly i was way off.

[RicktheRuler]

If Greenstein, Phillips, Negreanu and the few other pros that post on here count as 2+2er I would need to see the spread first.

[MicroBob]

I would be surprised if we only had 20.


me
dogsballs
jurollo
granny
odoyle rules
amazon
corey
nick-zack
nick b
alobar
sklansky
raymer
equal

guessing that daryn is a strong possibility.



that's 14 just off the top of my head and I didn't even look at the 'Your WSOP day 1 assignment' threads to refresh my memory.



I think we had 20 or so 2+2'ers on the PPM cruise and that event only had 700 players.
Pokerstars is sending almost 1k players....surely we have at least 20 in that bunch alone.

[Howard Treesong]

I don't have 200 posts yet, but I'm getting there. I'm guessing that PaulP has 200+ posts. And if Vince Lepore can find a backer, I'm sure he counts as well.

I ran across a number of 2+2ers in the 2K limit event: at least three that I played against. That field was far smaller, of course.

[HavanaBanana]

Hey I am playing too! and many 2+2 ers got a piece of me too, so how many do I count as?! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ToT

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have 200 posts yet

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but your hundred-something posts are actually good.

[prana]

i find this funny from bodog:

Ben Affleck 625/1
David Sklansky 700/1
Shannon Elizabeth 800/1

Yesterday:

Ben Affleck 450/1
Shannon Elizabeth 600/1
David Sklansky 700/1

[riverdance]

my <200 posts are playing too. ps qualifier

[MicroBob]

right. I remembered you after I posted.


your 'backers' or 'investors' don't count for squat.
Otherwise we would have SEVERAL dozen people involved just based on Granny.
(hell - my parents, and a few others, are backing me....they don't count either).

[mantasm]

I'll be there. I'd put myself 7000:1 to win.

[M.B.E.]

The correct odds are in the ballpark of 20-1, but you can't really wager on this because of verifiability.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be surprised if we only had 20.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I would have guessed closer to 80 or 100.

I'm in, btw.

[DVaut1]

I don't have 200 posts, and of the 160 or so posts I do have, a vast majority are in the politics forum. I do lurk alot, though.

I'd put my odds around 8000 to 1.

[billyjex]

i'm in the main event as well. i'm a decent but not great tourney player but with all the luck involved in a tournament you never know.

[GrannyMae]

Otherwise we would have SEVERAL dozen people involved just based on Granny.


almost a gross

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would be surprised if we only had 20.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I would have guessed closer to 80 or 100.

I'm in, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm in the main event as well. i'm a decent but not great tourney player but with all the luck involved in a tournament you never know.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have 200 posts yet

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but your hundred-something posts are actually good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Better be careful with statements like that. Vince, if he's still lurking, will instantly accuse you of sticking your tongue up my ass. Thank you, by the way.

[hotdog da 2rd]

i'm in, and just to let you guys in on a little secret. i will win..........i hope. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[fireman664]

granny should be even money!!

[the_joker]

I will be there. My 100+ posts mostly suck. I give myself 100000 to 1 odds.

[pokergripes]

In the interest of carrying on the vince lapore legend in the absence of the real thing (banned I think), I will go ahead and say it: Armchair has his tongue so far up your ass he can tell you what you ate for breakfast. (By my count, only 85% or so of your posts are good howard... /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

On a perhaps interesting related note, I stopped by the 15-30 lhe tables at the bellagio a couple of times when we were out there asking around for Vince, and not only didn't find him, but couldn't even find anyone willing to acknowledge knowing who he is...and neither did that floor guy boba (sp?), who tends to know everyone...

[burningyen]

I'll be playing in the ME. I figure myself to be a 12,000:1 shot.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have 200 posts yet

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but your hundred-something posts are actually good.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, treesong rocks. post more often.

[Scooterdoo]

I'm in. Haven't been playing great poker at the events I played so far, but hopefully I'll bring my satillite game to the ME where I've been doing great. Was pretty bummed this morning after getting knocked out of the Pot Limit event aroudn 95th on Sat. I'll probably post the hand in the MMT tomorrow. My flight didn't leave until 6:30 today so played one $525 sat and won. We had a $500 last longer too and I took that. I left in a much better mood... and I purchased one of those Bose sound reduction headphones at the airport that everyone seems to be wearing so now I'll really be ready for the ME. Watch out!

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
played one $525 sat and won. We had a $500 last longer too and I took that.

[/ QUOTE ]
I love playing winner-take-all sats where some of my opponents are in a last-longer.

[lostinthought]

I'll be there as well - won a $30+3 R qualifier at Stars..

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be surprised if we only had 20.


me
dogsballs
jurollo
granny
odoyle rules
amazon
corey
nick-zack
nick b
alobar
sklansky
raymer
equal

guessing that daryn is a strong possibility.



that's 14 just off the top of my head and I didn't even look at the 'Your WSOP day 1 assignment' threads to refresh my memory.



I think we had 20 or so 2+2'ers on the PPM cruise and that event only had 700 players.
Pokerstars is sending almost 1k players....surely we have at least 20 in that bunch alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

much more than 20

i'm in, i know colson10 and schaefer are also. i'm def thinking its in the 100-ish range

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm def thinking its in the 100-ish range

[/ QUOTE ]
Given the OP's definition (anyone with more than 200 posts) the number playing the ME will be considerably more than 100. Keep in mind that there are lots of people who may have made 200 posts in 1999 or whenever and still play poker, but no longer participate here.

[Scooterdoo]

I hear people saying that, but for me, it doesn't effect my strategy much at all. Perhaps if it's just two of us left and there are other players I might be a bit more conservative, but only very slightly so. I also find that the better, more experienced players are the ones who always want to do the last longers and it's the weaker players (not you of course <G>) who decline -- so most of the time it's the last longer crowd who come down to the end.

[revots33]

I think it totally depends on how many 2+2ers are entered. If there are 30 2+2ers in a field of 6,000, then odds would be 200-1, if you assumed all players were equal.

I guess the question is, how much better are the 2+2 entrants, than the "average" player who's entered in the ME? In other words, if the true odds were in fact 200-1, how would you adjust those odds to account for the skill level of 2+2ers, compared to the rest of the field?

[luvrhino]

Are there any gatherings of 2+2ers planned during the Main Event?

I know had that meetup earlier in the Series, but i was hoping there'd be a get-together for those of us only flying for the Main Event.

I certainly wouldn't mind meeting some of you people...though preferably away from any middle limit or higher poker table. Perhaps we could hold a vigil outside Mr. Sklansky's house in tribute. I'm sure he'd love that.

[MicroBob]

I've chatted with a few people about 'we should get together for drinks' or something like that....but nobody has set up anything official.


Since I don't know my way around Vegas in the least I'm NOT the person to try to put something like this together.
I do suggest we start a new thread and try to organize SOMETHING though.

It's the freaking WSOP afterall and a bunch of us are going. So I think we should organize something of the Magoo-ish get-together type-vain.

[Philuva]

I am playing. I know cero_z is also playing and I think Nomar is playing too.

[Philuva]

Agreed, something on Monday or Tuesday (July 4th or 5th) would be ideal. I will leave it in your hands Bob.

[PokerNeal]

Thanks to PP Steps tournament I won a seat on WSOP as well.

Everytime I think about the odds I have a sinking feeling inside. Since this is my first WSOP I figured I would go there, play the best game as I know it, chug a few beers with MoneyMaker, and party with Jesus at a bar (Jesus is quite THE dancer!). Have a great time people watching and come back with a bunch of non-sensical posts for the entertainment of all 2+2'ers.

[MicroBob]

lets say 200 2+2'ers are there.
each with a 1:5000 shot of winning it (out of 6000 or so players I'm going to assume that the 2+2'ers have a better shot then many of the dead-money players).

This puts us at a 1:25 shot of having a 2+2'er win the whole thing, right? (4% chance I believe).


But lets look at the final-table (and we'll make the final table 10 players just to keep it simple).
200 players each with a 1:50 shot of making the final 10.
Not quite 50/50....but kinda close.

Not too unrealistic that out of 200 2+2'ers in the main-event that we get one player at the final-table....and VERY good chances that we get one player to the final 20 or 30.

Of course, this includes both Raymer and Sklansky (whom I am assuming is playing but I don't know) along with all the 'barely better than average' 2+2 WSOP-noobs like me.

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
This puts us at a 1:25 shot of having a 2+2'er win the whole thing, right? (4% chance I believe).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where you're getting this 4% crap, everybody knows granny is a lock!

[MicroBob]

oh yeah.

i forgot.

[AcesUp]

I don't have 200+ posts, but have been on 2+2 since nearly day 1. Took 31st in Event #2 and 2nd in Event #4 this year, and will be playing the ME.

Good luck to everyone else playing the big one!


-Aces

[coolhandkuhn]

And according to poker pages, you got 2nd AND 9th in the same event (#4)!!! Congrats on that accomplishment!!!

[Paluka]

I'm in the ME.

[AcesUp]

Good point...looks like they owe me some cash... /images/graemlins/smile.gif


-Aces

[Steve Chase]

[ QUOTE ]

my math's not good on a saturday, but if raymer's 325:1 and daniel n.'s 200:1 and sklanky's 700:1, then combined they're what?

[/ QUOTE ]

The combined odds is simple: 1/325 + 1/200 + 1/700
which is about 106:1

[Stosh]

I'm in. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[hoterdoc]

so when does one really become a 2+2er?
most of my posts have been about making tables, designing chips, and different home tourney structures, and few have fallen out of the home poker forum.

I don't believe I have ever posted a hand for commentary, yet.

I won a seat in the WSoP from a local charity's "___series of poker", (82 people in the final event);
after I finished 5th (or better) out of 54 in the initial $25 qualifier (the top 10% advanced to he final - so we quit playing when we were down to 5).

I don't really know if I am a 2+2'er or not, but I'd also love to meet up.
doc

[MrBlini]

I'm playing, too.