$55 hand ....never know what to do here

[minwoo]

Taking into consideration the stack sizes...it's pretty clear that I can just fold into the money.

I am UTG. Big stack is BB.

***** Hand History for Game 2259075738 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 13382589) - Sat Jun 25 00:55:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 19564 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: ajmian (1055)
Seat 5: wwwobbe (6700)
Seat 8: Hero (1870)
Seat 9: Jim22Bullets (375)
ajmian posts small blind (200)
wwwobbe posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ks, Ah ]

Hero - push, call, or fold?

[ZebraAss]

ICM

[minwoo]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM

[/ QUOTE ]

gonna have to learn how to use that one day... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Meatmaw]

AKo is too strong a hand to make this questionable. This is a definite push. Now, a hand like KQ or A5s, that's a tougher call.

And now, with analysis, with BB calling range of (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs) and SB/BTN of (TT+,AQs+,AKo), it's +.7% to push.

Even with BB at (22+,A2+,K5+,Q9+) and others at (TT+,AQs+,AKo), it's still +.2%.

I just can't pass up the chance to hit ~4000 and run for 1st v. scraping for 3rd.

[minwoo]

How about if you had pushed the previous hand...making the current push look more like a bluff?

[Meatmaw]

even better. i think the fear is more 'what if they have a coinflip hand' going into this situation where you could sneak in. I love it even more, the looser image I have here. Perhaps that is misguided but I love chasing that first place. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
AKo is too strong a hand to make this questionable. This is a definite push. Now, a hand like KQ or A5s, that's a tougher call.

And now, with analysis, with BB calling range of (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs) and SB/BTN of (TT+,AQs+,AKo), it's +.7% to push.

Even with BB at (22+,A2+,K5+,Q9+) and others at (TT+,AQs+,AKo), it's still +.2%.

I just can't pass up the chance to hit ~4000 and run for 1st v. scraping for 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would push this if I were playing it. I 8table so I wouldnt think about it at all but

If I am playing one table I limp.

Fold to a push from the big stack unless the small stack is in then I will call.

My ITM is going to be over 90% if I just let the AK go if the going gets rough.

The main thing is when you limp, you gain the information from both small stacks if they are playing or not. This is priceless IMO.

what does the ICM say?

[lastchance]

I think this is terrible poker. You can't get into a confrontation that is anywhere near profitable here, at least against big stack. Getting called with 32o by big stack is not a good thing. If you want to win money, you've got to squeak into the money at times. In a spot very much like this, I had a big stack that was willing to call my push with any 2, and I mean any 2. In that case, you really should be able to lay this down either after limping or open-folding.

That said, unless big stack and others loosen up a lot, push it.

[curtains]

btw this is completely insane, if you move allin, theres no @#^@^ way in hell you want the big stack to call you. If you do want the big stack to call you then you are just wrong and have a huge lack of understanding of what your goals are in a sit and go. I'm not sure if this is what you were implying though, it was hard for me to figure out.

[DonButtons]

push push

[Myst]

Push if the big stack has REASONABLE calling standards.

[minwoo]

Well, here's what happened:
I was about to fold to slip into ITM but then I get this crazy pull from my head yelling at me to have some balls and always go for the 1st. So I pushed /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Got called by big stack holding TT. I rivered an Ace but oh yeah...he caught a set on the flop /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think next time, I will fold. First place is great and all and does make a huge difference in prize money but I think overall...the correct move in this particular situation is to fold. ITM is inevitable here if I fold.

ITM is the difference between -$55 and +$45 at the least.

[CaptSensible]

Anytime I'm guarenteed ITM if i lay low I take that route. Once ITM it's a different ball game. I'll push the AK but If i'm waiting for 1 or maybe 2 players to fall out and I have a huge stack I chill, watch the low stacks panic and drop out. That's just me though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MeanGreenTT]

[ QUOTE ]
btw this is completely insane, if you move allin, theres no @#^@^ way in hell you want the big stack to call you. If you do want the big stack to call you then you are just wrong and have a huge lack of understanding of what your goals are in a sit and go.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK...now I'm a little confused, the more I read the replies and the hand, thinking on it...I just don't know.

A standard 2.5-3xbb raises is more than 1/2 your stack, so you might as well push if you're going to play the hand. 4 handed, I HAVE to think I have the best of it at this point and picking up the blinds would add 600 chips and if I double up, then I have a great shot at 1st.

The ONLY other option in my mind is to fold, taking into account the short-stack will be blinded out. Now I'm not a fan of "folding into the money" but in this specific case...

I don't see how you can limp, calling off nearly 1/4 of your stack, just to fold on a non-scary board...and what do if the BB pops it...fold?

So what's the prevailing thought here then? Fold into the money?

[MrX]

drag the slider bar all the way to the right and bet.

[stupidsucker]

ICM has this slightly leaning to a push, but that depends on what range you can put the other stacks on. If you tighten up the 2 short stacks and loosen the big then it becomes more and more a fold.

Really it doesnt make a damn bit of difference except in variance. Sometimes arguments will erupt on here as to what the "clear" move is.

There is no clear move. How you want to play the hand is all the matters. The OP followed his poker intuition and there is a differnce in that and a "gut feeling". IMO you made the clear rigfht choice because that is what your brain told you to do.

Had you folded and missed the the money then you would be posting here in a different light I can almost promise.

I will stick to my limp to gain information. I don't think most big stacks know how to play here. If I am the big stack.... I am likely calling your all in with almost any 2. Depends on how much attention I am paying. If the big stack loses he still has more chips by a large margin, and he still has shorty one and shorty 2 to back him up for chip steals.

I want to know what Lori thinks. She normally has very good insight to hands like this. I think I may be right on with this one.

[microbet]

Don't overestimate your chances of folding into the money.

Fold here and the next hand you are BB with big stack in SB. There's a very good chance when that hand is over you only have T1470. Next hand, you are SB and shorty is BB. If he doubles through you, he has T750 and you have T1095.

There's a substantial chance those two hands go like that and from there you clearly have no guarantees.

This is a difficult situation. I think against standard opponents 99+, AQ+ are good pushes or maybe TT+, AK, AQs.

I really really really really don't understand why BB would or should call with anything near any two here. If you call with more than even 20% of hands here please explain. I don't see calling with even 10% of hands from BB.

[lastchance]

I hope you didn't misread my and curtains's posts. Against a normal, sane BB, you should push this 100% of the time. He's only going to get TT or better 5% of the time, and sometimes other guys are coming along for the ride here.

I was saying, you want normal sane BB, rather than an insane BB that gives you a 5:3 chance to double up here. That would be worse than folding ITM, but you push because you're not getting called 100% of the time. You are picking up a huge t450 a lot of the time, short stacks are calling you a lot of the time too.