Push TT this early?

[mustardo]

22, is this board too scary for TT or exactly what I want. No real reads as was only few hands in and was multitabling, couldn't even say how short stack had lost all his chips.

Time for a great fold or easy push even in round 1?

#Game No : 2257424665
***** Hand History for Game 2257424665 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13374588 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, June 24, 19:38:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 14015 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 9: leafan93 ( $875 )
Seat 4: MussyBardo ( $770 )
Seat 10: cicwang ( $807 )
Seat 6: sshore10 ( $510 )
Seat 1: splashdapot2 ( $225 )
Seat 2: dmband10 ( $760 )
Seat 5: donhagen ( $845 )
Seat 7: sidekic ( $1555 )
Seat 8: RackemTony ( $1653 )
Trny:13374588 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MussyBardo [ Ts Td ]
splashdapot2 calls [15].
dmband10 folds.
MussyBardo raises [90].
donhagen folds.
sshore10 folds.
sidekic folds.
RackemTony folds.
>You have options at Table 13990 Table!.
leafan93 calls [80].
cicwang calls [75].
splashdapot2 calls [75].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 6s, 8s ]
leafan93 checks.
cicwang bets [90].
splashdapot2 is all-In [135]
MussyBardo??

Ta for help, Mussy

[lastchance]

This board doesn't have overcards, therefore TT is pretty good, and with two spades so people have flush draws.

This is a spot where I push TT.

Oh, and also, I don't raise TT preflop. Just not worth making a big pot when you don't really know what to do if J-A show up.

[DJ Sensei]

Its unlikely that you're up against an overpair except maybe JJ, AA-QQ would probably reraise preflop, and JJ might too. However, there is a good chance that you're up against a set or 2 pair.

The leading bet for 90 smells like a draw, but theres no way to tell what the raise-push is, it could be a draw, 2 pair, or a set. In any case, you don't have a deep enough stack to charge draws without going all in, and I don't think your hand is strong enough to do that at this point. However, folding is a rather weak move too, as you have a decent chance of still having the best hand.

I'd recommend that you just call the push for 135. If the original better or the last player to act reraises, then you can fold knowing that you're beat. If he just calls, you're probably against a draw. If he checks any non-spade, non 4 or 9 turn, you can push and probably chase him off, and checking it down isnt a terrible play either, although he could hit his draw.

[Pitcher]

Hi DJ,

I think there are some issues with this post.

[ QUOTE ]
However, there is a good chance that you're up against a set or 2 pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you believe this? Two pair seems especially unlikely after calling a pre-flop raise. (8-6?). A set of 8's is certainly possible, but I think a hand like A8 or A6 is much more likely.

If he is on a draw, it is imperative to put a raise in large enough to not give odds for it. Calling doesn't do that at all and cuts your options down afterward because now even if you move in on the turn, your opponent will have the necessary pot odds to call. A raise is pretty much required at this point, and all in isn't too bad. Regardless, it must be substantial.

[ QUOTE ]
If he checks any non-spade, non 4 or 9 turn, you can push and probably chase him off, and checking it down isnt a terrible play either, although he could hit his draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is on a draw, why give a free card on the turn....no way you can check it down... That is just way too conservative.

Pitcher

[DJ Sensei]

I appreciate the constructive criticism, maybe i can clarify a little.

Given that the bet and raise came from the last 2 players to call the preflop raise, they could have weaker hands and called because of pot odds preflop (I can't really imagine why the shortstack would call off almost half his stack preflop and not just push, but thats his prerogative). Obviously 88 is a good possibility, but so is 66, 55, or even 65s (despite the bad position, I don't think its wrong to call a raise preflop with 3-1 odds and a middle suited connector, the implied odds if you hit are great).

In any case, the biggest problem with this hand is that the stacks arent deep enough to find out much more about the opponents hands without pushing. It may be a good chance to double up or more, but i'm not sure if TT is strong enough to go to the felt with this early in the tournament. I suppose I play fairly conservatively early in a tourney, hoping to outplay my opponents when the stakes are a bit higher, maybe its a leak, but its been working for me so far.

Would you recommend pushing the flop to chase off draws, or calling and pushing a safe turn?

[Pitcher]

Hi DJ,

I agree trips are a remote possibility, but not enough to prevent me from moving forward with a substantial raise on the flop. The idea would be to raise the pot enough to make it incorrect to pursue a draw. On the flop there is already 360 chips in the pot. On the flop an additional 225 chips went in for a total of 585. The only bet that works, unfortunately (and as you correctly pointed out) is a push.

My earlier post indicated a smaller bet might be correct, but that is not the case. So I would push the flop and deal with the consequences, fairly secure in the knowledge that I did the right thing if I lost all my chips.

Pitcher