55 at party. ya fold this?

[JJKillian]

I would of won the hand, but my thought is UTG has pp and caller has a/x.

1. one of my aces is dead
2. I am behind to the pp anyway
3. Don't really have to gamble at this point with my stack size


#Game No : 2254921496
***** Hand History for Game 2254921496 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13360701 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Friday, June 24, 04:09:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 11469 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: barkeep25 ( $645 )
Seat 3: santana275 ( $2605 )
Seat 4: eleung8888 ( $1850 )
Seat 5: Panic23 ( $910 )
Seat 6: jetboy100200 ( $1710 )
Seat 8: JJKillian ( $2280 )
Trny:13360701 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JJKillian [ Kh As ]
eleung8888 is all-In [1850]
Panic23 is all-In [910]
jetboy100200 folds.
JJKillian folds.
barkeep25 folds.
santana275 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, Kc, 3s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
>You have options at Table 12377 Table!.
eleung8888 shows [ Js, Qd ] two pairs, fives and threes.
Panic23 shows [ Ac, Ts ] two pairs, fives and threes.
eleung8888 wins 940 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, fives and threes.
Panic23 wins 2045 chips from the main pot with two pairs, fives and threes with ace kicker.

JJ

[microbet]

I guess I'd be a sucker and fold to those fish. They sure are fishy.

[mustardo]

Think I'd reluctantly fold as well, two all ins normally means best case scenario two pps lower than the king and as you say I don't think you need to gamble yet

[lastchance]

What are you thinking putting UTG on PP and Caller on Ax? It very easy could be both people with Ax, or both people with PP. It makes no sense to put people hands that specific. Anything within reasonable range for both players should be considered.

And I think I call here, but it's pretty close.

[freemoney]

i instacall and its not even close

[curtains]

I definitely fold here

[deathpotato]

I fold too.

[future]

With these stacks I'm definitely folding. AK is a lot better here when pushing and not calling. No need to gamble.

[John Hurst]

I think we are going to have run this one through some calculations. I lean towards folding this without any reads.

[microbet]

I'm really just bumping this because the answers were mixed and it would be interesting to see what other people think.

But, Lastchance, you were pretty on the fence, so I'll direct this towards you.

If they both have PPs under K, you are about 37% to win. If one has AK and the other has PP below K, you are about 17% to win. Change that AK there to AQ and you are still only about 34% to win. Obviously, if either has AA or KK you are not doing well here. On the other hand, they could be crazy and you could be looking great.

[JJKillian]

I went into a tank when the bet came to me, used a little of my time bank.

My exact thinking process was this. One probably has pp and one probably has a/x. My AK is better than the a/x. If the ss has the pp and the big stack has the pp I am in trouble. If it is switched then I am a favorite to lose to the ss and win against the big stack. So I win 1200 on the 1800+ bet, if I only beat the big stack. So if my read is right I am 50/50 on my hand guess and I am about 70/30 to beat the a/x. Basically less than 50% over all to win 1200 for 1800. This also assumes I lose to the pp.

Is my math and thinking correct here?

Once again this is assuming my read is right, which could be wrong as well hehe.

JJ

[adanthar]

I call if my read on UTG is 'oh hey, nice sidepot with A7' and not, say, 'oh hey, nice sidepot with JJ'.