Why push any 2?

[Matt R.]

I was observing a $200+15 just now, and this hand came up. I knew the original raiser was pushing any 2 in this scenario, and this is a $200+15, so let's assume that everyone left at the table also knows this. My general question is, what are the merits to pushing any 2 here versus folding. This is why I ask: If your opponents know you're pushing any 2, then they all, especially the short stack, should have a much wider calling range (in fact, I would think that SS should call with anything that is slightly better than 50:50 vs. a random hand since he is so low on chips and fold equity). The problem for me, and why I believe this may NOT be a push any 2 situation, is that if you push and everyone folds you increase your stack by 600 chips. If you push and are called, you're probably way behind if you're pushing trash (random doesn't necessarily mean bad, so I'm assuming trash cards here). You're going to lose most of these situations, and will be in bad shape at 1960 in chips if SS calls (less if someone else does). You obviously have to include situations where you call and win, and that will give you more than 50% of the chips in play.

So, my question is, why don't you just push with *marginally* good hands here -- hands that figure to have at least a modicum of success vs. everyone's (SS's in particular) calling range. Given that you are the biggest stack, I feel like there is at least some merit to waiting here and not putting most of your chips at risk with a hand like 72o (or 96o, in this case).

PS -- I wanted to edit out the names, but the hand converter apparently doesn't work if you aren't in the hand. Changing the names is pretty tedious as well, and I figured who was in the hand may help spark discussion on this.



***** Hand History for Game 2257106509 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 13371939) - Fri Jun 24 18:30:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 17029 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Gigabet (3440)
Seat 5: Kirill137 (2210)
Seat 7: Danyonsgrmpa (1480)
Seat 8: BENNO_B (2870)
Danyonsgrmpa posts small blind (200)
BENNO_B posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Gigabet raises (3440) to 3440
Gigabet is all-In.
Kirill137 folds.
Danyonsgrmpa calls (1280)
Danyonsgrmpa is all-In.
BENNO_B folds.
Creating Main Pot with $3360 with Danyonsgrmpa
Creating Side Pot 1 with $1960 with Gigabet
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2h, Kd, 4s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ks ]
** Dealing River ** : [ As ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3360 | Side Pot 1: 1960
Board: [ 2h Kd 4s Ks As ]
Gigabet balance 1960, bet 3440, collected 1960, lost -1480 [ 9s 6h ] [ a pair of kings -- As,Kd,Ks,9s,6h ]
Kirill137 balance 2210, didn't bet (folded)
Danyonsgrmpa balance 3360, bet 1480, collected 3360, net +1880 [ Tc Ah ] [ two pairs, aces and kings -- Ah,As,Kd,Ks,Tc ]

[pergesu]

Well as I understand it, even if your opponents loosen up considerably, they still don't pick up a callable hand often enough to hurt you. When they do call, your hand still has a shot at winning.

It's all based off of ICM, and there are plenty of threads around here describing how to use ICM to determine whether you should push any two. Whether you choose to use ICM principles in making your decisions is all up to you.

edit: Download Sit n Go Power Tools (http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/) and go through the Blindstealing 101 article. It explains it way better than I could.

[Nick B.]

Because you are getting a very nice overlay. Can't go bust and aren't going to be crippled by any of the stacks. If you do get action it will be by the smallest stack. If you don't win that 600 in chips, it is going to go to one of your opponents, and that is a significant percentage of the chips in play.

[Matt R.]

This makes sense. I really need to actually look at ICM and try it out -- I've sort of been "eyeballing" it, I guess you'd say, in determining a push any two situation. I've thought that I could estimate these things pretty accurately, but if this is a clear-cut push any two scenario, I'm probably quite a bit off.

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't win that 600 in chips, it is going to go to one of your opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I think I overlooked this when originally thinking about my argument. This makes it quite a bit more clear to me.

[Pitcher]

Hi Matt,

It is important to understand the concept of ICM and "pushing with any 2", but this is specific instance was NOT a push any two situation. This is not in any way meant to criticize Gigabet because most consider him the best SNG player out there, but from this position this push is incorrect unless you assume that all your opponents calling standards are tight...(99+, AQ+) which is highly unlikely in a $215 SNG. In fact, against this opponent, my calling standard are VERY wide (any A, any K, any Pair, Q9+ and J10) so this is a bad investment in the long run. To make matters worse, even if all the players were playing tight, this is a breakeven situation at best.

Regardless, it is important to understand the concept behind this in order to improve and successfully play at the higher levels.

Pitcher

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponents know you're pushing any 2, then they all, especially the short stack, should have a much wider calling range (in fact, I would think that SS should call with anything that is slightly better than 50:50 vs. a random hand since he is so low on chips and fold equity).

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the payout structure. Next one to leave gets nothing - and the big stack will still be around if he loses.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]

Look at the payout structure. Next one to leave gets nothing - and the big stack will still be around if he loses.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this pretty much sums it up. Only the shortstack would call with a hand as vulnerable as A10. Benno probably isn't calling without aces.

[deathpotato]

[ QUOTE ]
Benno probably isn't calling without aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true at all, short stack doesn't have 1BB or something, he has 3.5BB and is entirely in the running. Folding KK here would be unbelievably bad. I would call TT+, AK here, and that's playing it safe - assuming Giga is being unusually tight in pushing (i.e. tighter than he was in this case).

[Pitcher]

Hi Flying,

[ QUOTE ]
I think this pretty much sums it up. Only the shortstack would call with a hand as vulnerable as A10. Benno probably isn't calling without aces.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not to quibble, but I don't agree with that assessment at all. The raiser is UTG, 3 players behind. I am pretty sure that 2 of the 3 will call with anything reasonable...and the SB is likely to call with even less than A-10.

Pitcher

[eMarkM]

From an ICM POV, the 2nd and 3rd biggest stacks are only margianlly +EV to call Giga's all-in with AKo. AQo here is a pretty clear fold for both. So these guys have to have very tight calling standards if they understand the game. They're just not that big of a favorites over Giga's likely live "any two" cards without a decent pair. Considering this, those two stacks can be put on pretty high calling standards. Putting them on tightest setting in SGA and the SB on Loose yields a positive for going all in on any two for Giga. Hence his push is correct (or not too far off) if the others know what they're doing and are willing to lay down seemingly premium hands.

If you change the short stack's chips to even worse desparation, like 600 and give BB 3310 and the button 2650, it's a huge mistake for them from an EV standpoint to call with any non-pair and no pairs below 99. That leaves only TT-AA that they can call with a positive EV. So UTG big stack is correct to push any two even more so here even though the other two stacks are much closer to him and can cripple him. Fold equity and the Gap are at their strongest at this stage. It's only correct for them to call here with a bigger pair. That's it. And you have no fear of the small stack calling, cause he can't really hurt you too much anyway.

[curtains]

Of course benno is calling with more than just AA. There is actually almost no sit and go situation in which you should ever expect your opponent to call with only AA.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
AQo here is a pretty clear fold for both.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't fold AQ here if there was a gun to my head.

-Jason

[SlackerMcFly]

I believe this is a play based on his read of the chips solely. Gigabet has approx. 1,000 more chips than the average. Meaning that he has 1,000 chips that are not earning any equity. By pushing any two into a player (SB) that (after posting) has a figure very near the "extra" or "wasted" chips that Giga has, he almost HAS to make this play.

He would expect the BB to fold as BB only has $350 in "non-equity" chips, so he can't call w/out a monster.

If SB and BB folds, you can expect more pushing from Gigabet as he will now have $1500 or so in chips that are wasting away.

Get called and lose, his stack is still within $600 or so of the average and can easily be made up with a steal, decent hand from the button, etc.

Most times, playing the chips are as effective (or more so) than playing the cards or the players. While Giga didn't win the hand, he lost almost nothing in terms of average stack and put his "wasted" chips into play.

There are other future benefits to making this play, but it's a secret that I don't want to reveal just yet.....

I'm out for a week or so. Y'all will have to get your retail quality humor (at Wholesale Prices) elsewhere. Good luck at the tables!

SchlackaMacka

[Pitcher]

Hi Jason,

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't fold AQ here if there was a gun to my head.


[/ QUOTE ]


Bingo!

Dunno where eMark is getting his numbers....cause its not plus EV from that position with any two cards. Its not even close.

Pitcher

[curtains]

I dont push any 2 there either...

[Luminous Mist]

You're *the* pitcher!!!!

Jesus....I had no idea you even played STTs anymore.

Yes, I also know that 99.99999% of the posters on this forum will think I'm insane for posting this. But, I happen to be quite drunk now and I don't care, /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Wow.....so.....I'm gonna pm you with questions at some point.

Sorry in advance, /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

Luminous

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont push any 2 there either...

[/ QUOTE ]

i do, and i would love to hear solid reasoning as to why i shouldnt. holla

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont push any 2 there either...

[/ QUOTE ]

i do, and i would love to hear solid reasoning as to why i shouldnt. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause you never suckout. Holla.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Quote:
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I dont push any 2 there either...


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i do, and i would love to hear solid reasoning as to why i shouldnt. holla


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Cause you never suckout. Holla.

[/ QUOTE ]

well yes, this is true, but even if i never suckout ill still steal them blinds sometimes. holla