A math problem.

[squeek12]

I posted this in the probability forum, but it doesn't seem like anyone reads it. This could be impossible to answer, but I'll throw it out there.

I play in a terrible 3/6 game at Harrah's in New Orleans. It's so juicy it's hard to explain. Anyway, I was just wondering what percentage of sessions should I expect to bust out given the following parameters.

I buy in for $100

I consider myself TAG, and at this horrible game I think I could make at least 6BB/100 hands.

The variation has to be pretty large in this game as 5-7 people see flops on average.

My VPIP in this game is probably ~20%.

Is there any way to compute or estimate how often I will lose all of my buy-in in say a 5 hr. session???

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

As someone who just spent 3 months playing in this card room damn near every day, I tell you this. Get the [censored] out of the 3/6 game. It's terrible. The variance is godaweful. Play the 6/12 or the 10/20. The 6/12 is still quite juicy and at least the people in that game know the mechanics of the game. If you're there on the weekend, the 10/20 is a good game. Play it. Don't waste your time at 3/6.

As for your actual question your variance is probably so high it wouldn't even be calculable. I've never experienced variance so high as in this exact card room.

[squeek12]

[ QUOTE ]
As someone who just spent 3 months playing in this card room damn near every day, I tell you this. Get the [censored] out of the 3/6 game. It's terrible. The variance is godaweful. Play the 6/12 or the 10/20. The 6/12 is still quite juicy and at least the people in that game know the mechanics of the game. If you're there on the weekend, the 10/20 is a good game. Play it. Don't waste your time at 3/6.

As for your actual question your variance is probably so high it wouldn't even be calculable. I've never experienced variance so high as in this exact card room.

[/ QUOTE ]

6/12 is a bit out of my BR range, and I can't stand playing scared. I once sweated a 15/30 game in this card room for a while. Saw people cold calling preflop with Ax offsuit and Q10 offsuit. Probably 4-5 on each flop. Never so badly did I want about $500.

[Jeff W]

Variance is determined empirically. If you calculated your variance, you could find the answer to your question. This post belongs in the probability forum.

[drudman]

[ QUOTE ]
As someone who just spent 3 months playing in this card room damn near every day, I tell you this. Get the [censored] out of the 3/6 game. It's terrible. The variance is godaweful. Play the 6/12 or the 10/20. The 6/12 is still quite juicy and at least the people in that game know the mechanics of the game. If you're there on the weekend, the 10/20 is a good game. Play it. Don't waste your time at 3/6.

As for your actual question your variance is probably so high it wouldn't even be calculable. I've never experienced variance so high as in this exact card room.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this even mean? If Hero is properly bankrolled, he shouldn't care about what his variance is, only what his hourly rate is.