How often will I go bust???

[squeek12]

I play in a terrible 3/6 game at Harrah's in New Orleans. It's so juicy it's hard to explain. Anyway, I was just wondering what percentage of sessions should I expect to bust out given the following parameters.

I buy in for $100

I consider myself TAG, and at this horrible game I think I could make at least 6BB/100 hands.

The variation has to be pretty large in this game as 5-7 people see flops on average.

My VPIP in this game is probably ~20%.

Is there any way to compute or estimate how often I will lose all of my buy-in in say a 5 hr. session???

[AaronBrown]

Based on the information you give, I expect your standard deviation per 100 hands to be about 80 to 100 BB. There's obviouly some guesswork in there. If it's $500, then your $100 should disappear about 39% of the time.

With this many people in the pot, you proabably play pretty slowly. So your chance of going broke will only go up a little over five hours, say to 42%.

Keep track of this statistic. It can tell you more about the quality of your play than VPIP.

[squeek12]

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Keep track of this statistic. It can tell you more about the quality of your play than VPIP.

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Which statistic? BTW, about 40% is what I expected and have experienced for the most part. I play alot more hands in this game than I'm used to, I'm sure I could go broke alot less by playing tighter, but I would be bored to death.