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View Full Version : AK TPTK, passives get aggressive

dark_horse
06-24-2005, 05:47 PM
table was loose/passive. opponents were no exception. easy laydown on the flop?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB
imported_ncray
06-24-2005, 05:51 PM
MP2's check-cap is extremely worrisome. Smells like KT. I'd get out when it's 2 back to me on the flop.
DBowling
06-24-2005, 05:52 PM
you cannot fold on the flop
ThisHo
06-24-2005, 05:54 PM
I would think that you could find a fold at the river, but not before.

You're getting 10:1 when its back to you on the flop and you're drawing to the nut straight (though it may be a chop) and on the turn you're still getting 10:1. I think you're behind to a set or 2pair very very frequently, but neither villain is playing much like they have a K so I think that a T gets you the pot.

On the river I think you're beat often enough that you can fold it.

ThisHo
mscags
06-24-2005, 05:59 PM
You might be able to call the flop but laying it down is probably best. So many things you can be behind too and you may be drawing dead already. Throw it away on the turn for sure.
DBowling
06-24-2005, 06:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
you may be drawing dead already

[/ QUOTE ]

no
mscags
06-24-2005, 06:03 PM
What card gives you a clean win?
DBowling
06-24-2005, 06:04 PM
he is not drawing dead
mscags
06-24-2005, 06:05 PM
What card does he want to see?
DBowling
06-24-2005, 06:06 PM
ten
nepenthe
06-24-2005, 06:06 PM
Fold the flop. UTG+2 has 2 pair, a set, or another AK, and MP2 has the straight far too often here.
Skip Brutale
06-24-2005, 06:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What card does he want to see?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a difference between drawing dead and drawing to a likely chop.
imported_ncray
06-24-2005, 06:30 PM
I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly, but I'm going to give it a shot. It seems like we've established that it's a clear call if nobody has a made straight. If one villain already has a made straight, our odds of making the gutshot are...
3/45 * 1 + 42/45 * 3/42 (we assume one villain has KT)
= 13.8% = 6.24-1 odds

If there is no straight out...
4/47 * 1 + 43/47 * 4/46
= 16.5%
Assume a final pot size to be 22BBs (maybe a raise on a later street). Also assume you put in 1BB on flop + 1BB on turn.

If there is no straight out:
So 16.5% of the time we make 22BBs and 83.5% of the time we lose 2BBs. EV = + 1.96 BBs.

If there is a straight out and we are looking to chop:
13.8% of the time we make 11BBs and 86.2% of the time we lose 2BBs. EV = -.206BBs

Threshold: 90.5%
.905*-.206 + .095*1.96 = 0

So, this would be a neutral EV call if a villain had the straight about 10% of the time. Any higher and it's -EV.

I think all the calculations are right...maybe some assumptions are a bit off, but it should give a rough idea.