We've all experienced this....

[Mikey]

this is the play that day in and day out no matter how many times it happens, it's hard to put this hand down. Is it because of a lack of discipline or because we just have a hard time believing it.
-or- in some situations do we fold and some situations do we play on.

Here is the hand AKo
-you raise UTG and get called in about 3 spots with both the BB and the SB folding.

The flop is A Q 8 rainbow.

You bet and are called by the first cold caller, the second cold caller and the third one drops.

On the turn falls an offsuit 5.

You bet and are raised by the first caller.
The second guy drops.

Now the action is on you......

- Do you fold here knowing he could have two pair or better.
It's pretty obvious that your normal opponnent won't raise you here unless he holds 2 pair or better.....but....also you have to stop and think of why would he put a move on you with an Ace on the board, with just a single Ace.

Is it better to fold here or is it correct to call the turn bet here and quite possibly the river if you don't make much improvement.

Is there a time you fold?
Is there a time you play on?

I'm sure that for different flop types....you can often lay down, when you flop top pair.....but for this type of flop is it correct when you are being raised by a non-sophisticated player.

Often enough I find myself playing the hand out and calling with being shown....two stupid pair. What is the play here?

Is there a time to do things and is there a time not too?

[Pringle]

Well, you had better not fold.

After his raise, there is something like 8.75 BB in the pot. Even if you were somehow sure that he had two pair, the number of outs you have is enormous, EVEN IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY ARE. Any King gives you top two pair, any Queen gives you two pair above Aces and Fives and Aces and Eights. Any Ace gives you top trips. Even if they have something fishy like Q5, any Eight gives you a bigger two pair (similar comments apply if they have hands like 85, Q8, etc.)

"But wait!" you say. "THIS opponent wouldn't call my raise with Q5!" Then use your judgement. All you told me was that he was "unsophisticated." Does that mean he's loose in the face of tight preflop raises? ARE you a tight preflop raiser? Does he even know what position means? Is this a guy who you have only seen raise on the turn with two pair or better? Or would he raise with any ace? This is what reading hands is all about. But even if you are SURE that he has two pair or better and never bluff raises due to your excellent hand reading skills, call the turn looking for an out on the river. If you don't hit, then call a river bet if and only if the chances of your top pair top kick holding up are better than 9.75 to 1, and don't forget to take into account bluff river bets if he's into those. That means call if he will bet a hand less than top pair top kicker even once for every 11 or so rivers.

Pringle

[KDF]

I think...
"unsophisticated" players generally don't raise a raiser without top two pair or better. They don't semi-bluff or even know what it is. If this is your guy, call the turn for improvment, save a bet on the river if you don't improve.

Against a more sophisticated aggressive player, or a maniac, calling to a showdown without improvment would be more correct since you still have a decent chance to win against a missed semi bluff followed by a last ditch bluff. With the "unsophisticated" player this chance is close to nil.

[SoBeDude]

Not sure I agree with your analysis.

Since this "type" of player is likely to play with A-x, there is a good chance he has an ace. Then the raise on the turn may likely represent two pair with aces.

Lets assume the raise does represent 2 pair.

In this case, your only outs with AK is a king, 3 outs.

An ace that gives you trips, gives him a full house so they're not outs.

Queen comes and you split the pot if he's holding A8, but gives him a full house if he's holding Q8. Hard to count the 3 queens as outs.

If he has AQ then an 8 won't help you either, your second pair is smaller than his queens. If he has A8 or Q8 then you're toast as well.

So I see you're heads-up drawing nearly dead with 2 outs. Get out. Don't look back. Get on to the next hand, and thank him for his raise that saved you money.

Just my thoughts.

-Scott

[Mikey]

I agree. The most difficult thing in the hand is determining what two pair he has....and assuming he has A8 or A5 or AQ for two pair, you can't make that distinction, very simply...so your only out is a King....even if he is middle and bottom pair, same story....you dont' know...and if he has a Set..you are crushed....

I think I fold too.....especially on an uncoordinated board.

I love it when they show you Q8 for two pair...I LOVE IT!!!

[Pot-A]

Well, I agree with most posters in that unsophisticated can mean different things. If you can reliably put him on Ax, and he doesn't bluff or semi-bluff, by all means fold. But Q8 suited is not an unusual hand for an unsophisticated player.

It's pretty obvious that your normal opponnent won't raise you here unless he holds 2 pair or better

I don't think that's obvious at all. In fact, I don't think it's true. Recall since he has position it is correct for him to raise you with any hand that would be worth a call on the river. If you make three bets or you bet the river he can safely fold if he has only one pair.

On the other hand, if you fold, not only do you potentially lose a pot you should have won, but you're encouraging him to play correctly. The densest of opponents will start playing aggressively if you play this weakly, costing you much more money in the future.

[Pringle]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Not sure I agree with your analysis.

Since this "type" of player is likely to play with A-x, there is a good chance he has an ace. Then the raise on the turn may likely represent two pair with aces.

Lets assume the raise does represent 2 pair.

In this case, your only outs with AK is a king, 3 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

A queen is still an out, to give him Aces and Queens with no kick, while I have a King kicker.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
An ace that gives you trips, gives him a full house so they're not outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unless his raise on the turn represented a different two pair, which you give him credit for holding later in your post.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Queen comes and you split the pot if he's holding A8, but gives him a full house if he's holding Q8. Hard to count the 3 queens as outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Again, a Queen is not a split if he has A8 or A5. Plus, if he has 85, a Queen is also an out.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
If he has AQ then an 8 won't help you either, your second pair is smaller than his queens. If he has A8 or Q8 then you're toast as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he has A8, I have 6 outs: K-K-K-Q-Q-Q. If he has Q8, I have 9 outs: A-A-A-K-K-K-5-5-5. I suppose if you were 100% sure that he had AQ or better (top two pair), and he NEVER bluff raises, then a fold would be OK. You are getting 9.75 to 1 to call the turn raise, which means that you would only need like 4.5 outs.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
So I see you're heads-up drawing nearly dead with 2 outs. Get out. Don't look back. Get on to the next hand, and thank him for his raise that saved you money.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 outs?? You definitely have more than 2 outs. Also, another reason to take a card on the turn here is so people don't start pushing you around. If I see you raise preflop, bet the flop, and then fold on the turn to a raise, you can bet that I will be sending you plenty of turn raises, exploiting your weak-tightness. The problem is that if you are right (in that you are behind), you are only costing yourself a bet or two. If you are wrong, you costed yourself in excess of 9.75 big bets. It all goes back to Sklansky's essay on the 8 mistakes in poker. Incorrectly folding is awful.

Pringle

[SoBeDude]

In reply to:
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Not sure I agree with your analysis.

Since this "type" of player is likely to play with A-x, there is a good chance he has an ace. Then the raise on the turn may likely represent two pair with aces.

Lets assume the raise does represent 2 pair.

In this case, your only outs with AK is a king, 3 outs.

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A queen is still an out, to give him Aces and Queens with no kick, while I have a King kicker.

As I said I'm assuming he has two pair. If he already has Aces and queens, you're toast - he filled up. If he has Q-8 or Q-5 you're toast as well - same reason. If he has Ax then you have a split pot.

In reply to:
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An ace that gives you trips, gives him a full house so they're not outs.

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Unless his raise on the turn represented a different two pair, which you give him credit for holding later in your post.

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Queen comes and you split the pot if he's holding A8, but gives him a full house if he's holding Q8. Hard to count the 3 queens as outs.

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Again, a Queen is not a split if he has A8 or A5. Plus, if he has 85, a Queen is also an out.

sure it is. If he has either A8 or A5 when a queen lands you both Aces and Queens - split pot. Only with 85 does the queen improve you to a winner, which I admit I forgot to consider him holding a 5 in my first analysis.

In reply to:
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If he has AQ then an 8 won't help you either, your second pair is smaller than his queens. If he has A8 or Q8 then you're toast as well.

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If he has A8, I have 6 outs: K-K-K-Q-Q-Q. If he has Q8, I have 9 outs: A-A-A-K-K-K-5-5-5. I suppose if you were 100% sure that he had AQ or better (top two pair), and he NEVER bluff raises, then a fold would be OK. You are getting 9.75 to 1 to call the turn raise, which means that you would only need like 4.5 outs.

In reply to:
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So I see you're heads-up drawing nearly dead with 2 outs. Get out. Don't look back. Get on to the next hand, and thank him for his raise that saved you money.

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2 outs?? You definitely have more than 2 outs. Also, another reason to take a card on the turn here is so people don't start pushing you around. If I see you raise preflop, bet the flop, and then fold on the turn to a raise, you can bet that I will be sending you plenty of turn raises, exploiting your weak-tightness. The problem is that if you are right (in that you are behind), you are only costing yourself a bet or two. If you are wrong, you costed yourself in excess of 9.75 big bets. It all goes back to Sklansky's essay on the 8 mistakes in poker. Incorrectly folding is awful.

I meant to say 3 outs - kings. but your point is taken. In retrospect, failing to consider he may very well have a five changes my view of the hand. But your point about getting pushed around should be saved for better players. I play with many ppl similar to what he was describing and IMO the raise definitely represents two pair with this type of player. And they're too unsophisticated to try to bully me later because I folded. Now if I was playing against you or people of your caliber I'd call that bet and maybe reraise. But if his table is like my regular, I'd call it only about 50% of the time. This caliber of players really telegraph their hands. take the info, fold.

-Scott

[JohnShaft]

Again, a Queen is not a split if he has A8 or A5. Plus, if he has 85, a Queen is also an out.

sure it is. If he has either A8 or A5 when a queen lands you both Aces and Queens - split pot.
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Yeah you both have Aces and Queens but you have a King kicker which beats him. It isn't a split pot, you take the whole share.

[Bozeman]

Scott,

When a queen fails and he has ax, you have aaqqk, while he has aaqq8, so you win the pot outright. As the earlier poster said, you almost always have 6 or more outs, though you don't know which they are. The only time you can fold is if he has aq more than two thirds of the time.

Craig

[SoBeDude]

Yeah you both have Aces and Queens but you have a King kicker which beats him. It isn't a split pot, you take the whole share

Oh man. where was my brain!? you're right, of course.