Do bookies respect Gigabet?

[llabb]

Apparently yes. They must be paying attention to his recent tournament successes.

Different books are offering odds on winning the WSOP, making the final table, etc. I was perusing the lines, and was surprised to see Gigabet listed here (http://www9.pinnaclesports.com/guestcontestLines.asp?redirected=yes&ContestType=P oker&contestType2=204*Odds%20to%20Make%20Final%209 %20-WSOP%202005) .

Notably, he's getting the same odds as David Sklansky and Paul Phillips. About the same or better than Andy Bloch, Paul Darden, Humberto Brenes, Thomas Keller, Kathy Liebert, Tom McEvoy, and several other name pros.

Apologies if this has already been posted (haven't seen it here before) or if you find it irrelevant. This is the main forum I read, and I thought some of you might find it interesting that Gigabet is drawing the same amount of interest from a bookie as Sklansky or Phillips is.

[freemoney]

i would think gigabet has a MUCH better chance of winning then sklansky.

[tech]

Two things worth noting:

(1) Pinnacle knows what the hell they are doing, much moreso than any other online book.

(2) Odds are ultimately set by the market, not by the books. Perhaps he was originally priced much higher and has been bet down to this point. More likely is that this is a decent value since he is not a recognized name.

[microbet]

Very interesting list. I hardly know anything about this, but it seemed like maybe Barry Greenstein and Chip Reese are undervalued relative to some other top players.

[stupidsucker]

How does betting on someone work?
Not that I have any interest in betting, but i am curious how it compares to backing individuals instead.

[microbet]

Seems like shorting Phil Hellmouth might be the best option if it's possible.

[SuitedSixes]

This post will be in flames by Sunday morning.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
How does betting on someone work?

[/ QUOTE ]

Giga is +11000 to make the final 9. That means you get odds of 110 to 1. So you bet $100 on Giga and if he makes it, you win $11000.

[microbet]

I would definitely take the under on that.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

What is Gigabet's name?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
What is Gigabet's name?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dirk Diggler

[Bluff Daddy]

im def. taking moneymaker at +11669!

[Shilly]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is Gigabet's name?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dirk Diggler

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, that's just how I pictured him...

Darrell Dicken.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
This post will be in flames by Sunday morning.

[/ QUOTE ]


care to make a wager?

[stupidsucker]

lmao @ dirk

110-1 odds in a 5000+ field.(does anyone have an update on expected ME players this year??)

ummm... no thanks.

I don't know crap about sports betting so I could be way off, but these look like sucker bets to me.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This post will be in flames by Sunday morning.

[/ QUOTE ]


care to make a wager?

[/ QUOTE ]

I will bet you one million dolla it will be in flames by sunday.

provided I am allowed to post

[stupidsucker]

just let me know

[Unoriginalname]

In case anyone else was curious, I google-stalked our hero Gigabet once I found out his real name and found a picture/bio. Gigabet (http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=42079)

Not too much to say. Looks like a regular looking guy. What card room is that he's pimpin' on his shirt?

[skipperbob]

Not a bad thirty days /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[lorinda]

lmao @ dirk

110-1 odds in a 5000+ field.(does anyone have an update on expected ME players this year??)

ummm... no thanks.

I don't know crap about sports betting so I could be way off, but these look like sucker bets to me.

You are off, not sure if it's way off.

I have 199-1 about him to reach the top ten (I got him added to the betting on betfair and I suspect Pinnacle just copied the list).

An average player has a 660-1 chance of reaching this final and he's way way above the awful average in that field.
110-1 to reach the final means he'll do it six times more often than the average, which doesn't sound too suckerish to me.

I'm absolutely certain my 199-1 is a strong bet, not so sure about 110-1.

Lori

[stupidsucker]

Thanks Lori.

is that based on a 5940 field then? (660x9)

I still think the bets are bad even if you know what you are doing. Just a lot better then I originaly thought. I am curious if there is money to be made by betting correctly on good players. It has to be better then horse racing odds.

I shouldnt post assumptions on things I really know nothing about. Just here to learn something new.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
What card room is that he's pimpin' on his shirt?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's Scott Fishman's gear.

[TheNoodleMan]

even if we assume that Lori is right, the varience is astronomical on this type of bet. Personally, my roll is better served elsewhere but I'll be rooting for him.

[lorinda]

6600 field. The bet I have is ten players, I've since seen that Pinnacle have got it at nine. (It has been shockingly hard to find out if the final will be nine or ten)

The field WILL be 6600 give or take a few.

Almost always these bets are sucker bets, however this year I think that the bookies have underestimated the amount of dead money.

Lori

[llabb]

Tech is right on with his points. Apparently some things still need clarification, though:

(1) On longshot bets, all books rape the public. These are very clearly complete sucker bets. That was not the point of the post. For more info on why these are sucker bets, see the WSOP Odds thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2575691&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=31&vc=1) and other related threads in the Sports Betting forum.

(2) Shorting or betting against any individual player is clearly a +EV move. No book will let you do that. (Except Tradesports, which tries to be more of a market than a book, and those bets are limited.) Again, that was not the point of the post.

(3) Claiming that one famous pro is better than another, random flaming, and other such inferences drawn from these odds is likely unfounded. Books set odds based on the action they expect/desire to receive. Not the point of the post.

(4) The point of the post was simply to express surprise that Gigabet was included *at all* in the group of players to be wagered on. The book attempts to list the best players in the world and/or the ones that will attract the most wagers. For the book to choose only 131 such players and include Giga is an enormous sign of respect. It indicates that the book realizes he is either (i) one of the top players in the world, or (ii) many other people think so or will wager on him anyway. It is surprising for him to get this recognition after only 2 months of success in the B&M tournament world. For a relative unknown such as him to be listed at the same odds as Sklansky, Phillips, and other name pros means the book must think he is better than them.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
I am curious if there is money to be made by betting correctly on good players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but the most +EV bets on this WSOP are not going to be straight bets on the participants. They are going to be scalps (taking advantage of different lines on the same player at different sites) and in-progress betting.

[stupidsucker]

Next question...
Is there available information on how the payout structure is?

I can't seem to find it anywhere(not even at worldseriesofpoker.com)

Last year the field was 2500ish so if they keep the same payout structure then the winner pulls in over 10million.

I heard a rumor that they were going to flatten it out some. I can't even remember where I heard that, so I can not claim any validity to the statement.

according to the schedule the final table will be 9
[ QUOTE ]
July 14, Thursday Day 6, Start with 27 play down 9 @Binions Horseshoe

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine it is set in stone, depending on how long it takes that night.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How does betting on someone work?

[/ QUOTE ]

Giga is +11000 to make the final 9. That means you get odds of 110 to 1. So you bet $100 on Giga and if he makes it, you win $11000.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, an "average" player is 660 to 1 right ? Meaning +6600?

Man, these bookies are gonna clean up.

[lorinda]

1) I believe Pinnacle have made some errors in that list.

2) You can do it at betfair if you are English and most of the prices have been up there for several weeks now and nobody will touch them.

3) Correct

4) I believe they took their list from Betfair, most major bookmakers in the UK do that now, and for something as specific as this bet, I would not be surprised to see others follow suit.
Betfair added him solely because of my phone call and my money is 50% of the money traded on him.

If you look at the results so far this WSOP, it is clear that the name players are still going strong. Adding 4000 hopeless cases to the list will not make these people three times less likely to cash.

Lori

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
The point of the post was simply to express surprise that Gigabet was included *at all* in the group of players to be wagered on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pinnacle uses outside consultants for their odds on events that are outside of mainstream betting (arena football, etc.). I assume they probably did the same thing for poker. If it is someone in tune with 2+2 tournament poker, that could explain Giga's inclusion.

Edit: Lori's phone call is also an extremely likely explanation. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
lmao @ dirk

110-1 odds in a 5000+ field.(does anyone have an update on expected ME players this year??)

ummm... no thanks.

I don't know crap about sports betting so I could be way off, but these look like sucker bets to me.

You are off, not sure if it's way off.

I have 199-1 about him to reach the top ten (I got him added to the betting on betfair and I suspect Pinnacle just copied the list).

An average player has a 660-1 chance of reaching this final and he's way way above the awful average in that field.
110-1 to reach the final means he'll do it six times more often than the average, which doesn't sound too suckerish to me.

I'm absolutely certain my 199-1 is a strong bet, not so sure about 110-1.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Lorinda, I think even 199-1 is steep.

[GtrHtr]

Now that is a very good avatar. Well done.

[llabb]

Thank you, Lorinda, for the info. Are you connected in any way with betfair, or did they really add him due to just one phone call? If it really is just from your phone call, I'm very surprised that the odds on him aren't better. They would have no reason to put him at the same odds as name pros, if so, it's just another example of the books screwing the public.

[lorinda]

I gave them a call and asked if they could add him, their reply was "I'm sorry, I have never heard of him"
I said "He cashed at The Mirage three times this week if you want to look it up on pokerpages" and the guy said "In that case we'll be happy to add him"

I then put up 999-1 which didn't get matched, but someone offered 199-1 which I took nearly instantly.

Since then he has traded at 119-1 for the same amount (a 50 GBP bet) and that's all the action they've had.

If Pinnacle did take their betting from Betfair, that second bet is probably enough to worry them.

There are some players on the Pinnacle list, such as Howard Plant that leads me to believe that at least part of the list is taken from Betfair, as there is no way an expert would put him in the top 130,000 players in the world, let alone the top 130, but he is well known in the UK and hence makes the UK list.

Lori

[TheTimeIsUp]

WTF. Gigabet is in, but Gavin Griffin isn't?

[llabb]

Gotcha. Thanks, Lorinda. I have since seen Gigabet appear on some other books' lines, so they must be sharing the info.

I only peruse books open to Americans, and don't know much about betfair. From what you've written, I gather, is it an exchange-traded type of book that simply matches up bettors, similar to Tradesports? That would make sense the way you've explained it, and now makes sense how his odds got lowered so drastically.

I'm curious, the odds you're willing to take seem much lower than others here or on the Sports Betting forum. If you put Giga or another top player at roughly 200-1 to make the final table, what are you estimating the right odds are for a top player to win?

Most other people seem to want a field bet. Would you be on that bet, or the other side of it, and what odds would you be willing to take on that (assuming it was the field vs. every noteworthy player imaginable, say 500 or so)?

[lorinda]

If I can pick the top 500 players, I'll happily give you even money about the field.
That being said, I'd want to research the top 500 properly.

I think the favorite should be around 500-1 in this field.

Betfair is indeed an exchange.

Edit: Please don't take the fact that I would give the bet to mean I currently will.
An actual list of the best 500 would take me a very long time to compile.

Lori

[llabb]

Well, Pinnacle's offering most top players between 300-1 and 600-1, so you might be able to find a wager you like. It still seems a bit steep to me. Keep you posted if I find anything interesting!

Oh, and I wasn't implying I wanted to wager against you, just wanted your opinion on the odds since you seemed pretty knowledgeable about it all.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
What is Gigabet's name?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keyzer Soze.

[SuitedSixes]

$200. Book it.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This post will be in flames by Sunday morning.

[/ QUOTE ]


care to make a wager?

[/ QUOTE ]

$200. Book it. I need new pants.

[the shadow]

This thread is gonna be flaming well before Sunday morning. It's been up only about 4 hours, but already has 8000+ views. That's even faster than the Shana Playboy pics thread.

The Shadow

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread is gonna be flaming well before Sunday morning. It's been up only about 4 hours, but already has 8000+ views. That's even faster than the Shana Playboy pics thread.

The Shadow

[/ QUOTE ]

Gig had a better year than Shana.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
If I can pick the top 500 players, I'll happily give you even money about the field.
That being said, I'd want to research the top 500 properly.

I think the favorite should be around 500-1 in this field.

Betfair is indeed an exchange.

Edit: Please don't take the fact that I would give the bet to mean I currently will.
An actual list of the best 500 would take me a very long time to compile.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]
While this sounds right, amateurs have won the last 3, and 4 of the last 5,(considering furlong an amateur, not positive)

Back 5 years ago, the field was pro-heavy, now it's fish-heavy. I don't know that that makes it more likely, but I'd book this bet for you, should you care to.

[the shadow]

[ QUOTE ]
(considering furlong an amateur, not positive)


[/ QUOTE ]

Noel (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=12195&m_id=20) said that he wasn't a pro.

[lorinda]

The difference is that now the old 500 runner field would (with some obvious exceptions and probably a handful of non obvious ones) be the new best 500, with the next 6100 being comprised mainly of idiots.

I may try to compile a list and have a smallish ($100 or so) bet, but compiling 500 names in a reasonable manner so there is no aftertiming ("Oh yes, I've heard of him, of course I win") is going to be messy without doing it properly (Which would be crazily time consuming).

I may try to devise some system that picks the 500 names (Anyone who has previously cashed this year, or whatever), and if anyone can think of something reasonably fair I'd be interested to hear it.

Lori

[SuitedSixes]

I think you still have my Empire info for transfer. If not let me know and I'll PM it to you.

My ass is looking forward to some new pants.

[microbet]

I bet on the under for Sunday. I didn't specify an amount nor did anyone accept, but I want $200 too.

[Phoenix1010]

A post with 47 replies gets over 10,000 views in under a day... incredible. From now on, I'm putting the word Gigabet in the title of everyone of my posts, even the ones in the sports forum.

-Phoenix

[SlackerMcFly]

[ QUOTE ]
This post will be in flames by Sunday morning. Suited Sixes

[/ QUOTE ]

As usual you are correct, sir! And it's only Friday night.

Since I am the "thread killer" (anytime I post there are none after), my guess is it will die now. However, can't take action on that even if random player has $25.

Happy days! Sllllaaacker

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
A post with 47 replies gets over 10,000 views in under a day... incredible. From now on, I'm putting the word Gigabet in the title of everyone of my posts, even the ones in the sports forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll notice a couple of things:

- This post has about twice as many views as Gigabet's "Almost there . . ." post, a fan favorite, and also twice as many as Gigabet's exposition of his "block" strategy for SNGs, and both of those posts were actually written by Gigabet. Seems rather odd. You could write the first one off to a smaller forum population when it was written, but the second was written just a couple of weeks ago.

- There was betting on this page reaching 10,000 views. I think somebody made an unwise bet.

[llabb]

Now that the bet and excessive page viewing/refreshing are over, perhaps we could shift discussion back towards the original direction of the thread.

(1) The first point was to express surprise that bookies had listed Gig with the same odds for the WSOP as name pros. Mystery was solved when it became apparent that Lorinda had singlehandedly created the market, and just one other additional bet on an illiquid British betting exchange demolished the odds down to the same level as the pros.

(2) The thread next headed in the direction of, what are the correct odds on top players in the WSOP, and how do you estimate that? I've seen a couple guesstimates elsewhere, but with all of the quality analysis on this forum, I'm curious what the posters here think. What is the analysis and reasoning behind how to set the correct odds on:

(a) a top player winning the WSOP ME
(b) a top player making the final table
(c) a player from "the field" (anyone other than the top 500 or so names) winning the ME

[JJKillian]

I have an "in" as far as the size of the field. The tournament is set to cap at 6600. They are being very hush hush about how many are in at the moment. Even employess of the RIO do not know for sure.

But the exact words from the tournament director to my friend last week was this. "We are no where near where we thought we would be"

So not sure how many that is, but my guess is 4.5k or so.

[HoldingFolding]

Lorinda, how did you get 199, I've had my 190 bet on betfair for over a week with no takers.

Was think of getting MLG (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=2649743&Forum =All_Forums&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=50&Main=2629 844&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=10633&daterange =1&newerval=1&newertype=m&olderval=&oldertype=&bod yprev=#Post2649743) listed.

[lorinda]

lorinda, how did you get 199, I've had my 190 bet on betfair for over a week with no takers.

I got 200 by asking for 10 at 1000 and 10 at 750 as soon as the name was listed.
Someone offered a tasty looking 200 to fill the gap, so I took it all. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Edit: To be entirely accurate, I took 25 immediately and then went and earned myself 25 more on some random sporting event or other so I could take the other 25 and not miss it should he happen to be outdrawn before the final.

Lori

[llabb]

Lori, I did a quick look around, and the most players I found listed on a site is 275 players to bet on. The average line is around 350:1, so taking them all gives you a line of around +125. Better than even money, but only 275 players. By the way, Giga was 400:1 there.

The odds at that site are pretty bad, though, and I've seen other sites with odds twice as good. So if you were to shop around and get an average line of +550, that would result in a combined bet on all 275 players that pays you 2:1. Pretty similar odds as you had posted.


Dali, you could get a field bet there, but the odds were listed 1:5, so you'd have to lay 5:1 since you get the entire rest of the field. 6325 players vs 275, or if JJKillian is correct, 4225 vs 275. What do you (or anyone else) think of the line for this field bet?

[lorinda]

I think I'd want about 2-5 for the field bet or lay 1-4. I think the true odds are in the 3-1 range (To be in line with even money for the top 500 and allow for the fact that although we have most of the best 275, there are probably some celebs and morons on the list.)

Lori

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This post will be in flames by Sunday morning.

[/ QUOTE ]


care to make a wager?

[/ QUOTE ]

I will bet you one million dolla it will be in flames by sunday.

provided I am allowed to post

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd take that bet and then pay mat sklansky $100,000 to lock this thread up and ban you.