Hold Em Poker Quiz on Cardplayer.com

[scream1158]

I found this question rather interesting and I got it wrong according to the author. I would like to hear some more thoughts on it.

A $30-$60 game. You open with a raise under-the-gun having the A-A. The player on your immediate left cold-calls your raise and everyone else folds. There is $170 in the pot and two players. The flop is: Td-8h-4c, giving you an overpair. You bet and your opponent calls. There is $230 in the pot. The turn is the Kh. You bet and your opponent raises. What do you do?

The question is a little hard to answer without any information on the other person in the pot, but I still think I would reraise. Would you put your opponent on KK, TT, or 88 and just call?

[Ironman]

I would reraise.

Ironman Dave

[andyfox]

I wouldn't put him on K-K.

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't put him on K-K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm about as certain that he doesn't have KK here as I am that AA is the best starting hand. Otherwise, all bets are off. If he's aggro, I reraise. Otherwise, I call and check-call....unless I hit the bullet on the end.

The most probable hand is AK.

[scream1158]

The reasoning on the website is:

Call. You are risking another raise if you three-bet here, and your opponent could have a wide range of hands that beat a pair of aces at this point. While occasionally raises on the turn are semi-bluffs, these are rare among typical players. Instead, raises on the turn frequently denote two pair or better. He could easily have cold-called your preflop raise with K-K, T-T, or even 8-8, and now have a set. You will get four-bet if you are against a set, and you only have two outs. You have eight outs against the top two pair, and again you could easily get four-bet. By calling, you can check the river if a blank comes, and perhaps induce a bluff bet on the end if your opponent was semi-bluffing with something like queen-jack suited. If your opponent has ace-king, you can call here, check on the end, and he will probably bet the river for you.

I think that there is too many times where he could have something like AK or AQ hearts and I would be missing a bet by not reraising the turn. Also the author suggests checking the river if a blank comes out, but doesnt this seem a little passive? I feel that if a blank comes out and I dont bet, I could be missing a value bet on the river.

[BWebb]

I'd probably call and checkraise the river.

[STG]

I have him/her on 2 pair at least. it would have been in their best interest to just call your bet and re-raise on the river if an ace doesn't come. This person has to have you on a big pair.

[skp]

IMO, the author is right that the typical opponent requires a big mitt to raise a PFR on the turn. This is not to say that I would never 3 bet the turn. You need to know your opponents but absent opponent info, calling is the better play IMO.

His most likely hand is 88 or 44 or KQs. I think that most players in 30-60 would 3 bet preflop with AK or AQ or TT.

[andyfox]

"Also the author suggests checking the river if a blank comes out, but doesnt this seem a little passive? I feel that if a blank comes out and I dont bet, I could be missing a value bet on the river."

With what is he going to check behind here that he would have called your bet?

[Mempho]

A raise is only 0.08BB is positive EV...so its highly dependant on your bankroll. The variance is 18.18 times the positive EV....so most players should call unless they have very good metagame reasons for not doing so. You give up a little but you give up a lot if high risk/low reward situations break you.

[Nate tha' Great]

If this is $30/$60 Party Poker then it's an easy 3-bet.

[scream1158]

I am still more of a low-limit player (2/4 6max usually) so I appreciate the input. I think this problem would rely heavily on observations of the player. If no information was known, I can see how calling the turn might be the best play.

[W. Deranged]

I think the best way to approach this hand is in terms of the four possible scenarios:

a. Your opponent actually has a better hand then you which he will four bet (most likely 10 10 or 88... KK a little less likely.

b. Your opponent has another decent hand that they will most likely call down two bets with if you three bet.

c. Your opponent is on some kind of hand that is worth the third bet (a semi-bluff hand, a semi-tricky or badly-played hand like JJ, etc...) but which your opponent will fold on the river.

d. A pure bluff which your opponent will fold if you raise.

For simplicity we will assume a pure bluffing opponent will always bluff the river if you check behind and a semi-bluffing (case c) player will never bluff the river if you check behind. (Not a hugely ambitious assumption, because sometimes pure bluffers will give up once you call the turn and sometimes semi-bluffers will miss). We will also assume that the probably of getting sucked out on is small enough that we can disregard it for simplicity (it will be largely balanced out by the probability of you sucking out when you're behind). Lastly, we assume your opponent isn't a pure chump and will four bet the turn if you three-bet when they have a hand that is better than yours.

Your EV of raising compared to calling (namely, the difference in bets you make if you call) is approximately:

-2P(a) + P(b) + P(c) - P(d)

Namely, raise if:

P(b)+ P(c)> 2P(a) + P(d)

Basically, you should only not raise if you have a reason to think that a or d is particularly large: namely, your opponent is a total rock who would not raise on the turn without a very large hand OR your opponent is a real aggro who would raise the turn with nothing.

Against normal players, a raise is clearly the way to go, in my opinion, because there are so few hands that beat you that P(a) will be naturally quite low and because you will rarely see d except in cases where you've already identified the player as a bluffer.

I doubt any of the symbolic notation helps much, but it is useful for me in working out the situation.

[Mempho]

Assume that you evaluate that you are ahead 65% of the time and see if you come up with the same answer I did (that it was positive EV of 0.11BB to raise in this situation...which I estimated down to 0.08 due to losing the river bluff if it is a stone cold bluff. I included his "average" number of outs if it is a semi-bluff and the AA's probable number of outs if the AA is behind here.

[joker122]

calling and checkraising the river is viable.

[A_C_Slater]

KT or K8 are also possible if the opponent is a donk.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning on the website is:

Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised it wasn't "fold".

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning on the website is:

Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised it wasn't "fold".

[/ QUOTE ]thats what i was gonna say...

[BarronVangorToth]

Reraise, this is 2005, not 1985.

Not raising here you're missing a bet far more often then you're giving one up.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[helpmeout]

Quizes are mostly a waste of time because it depends on the opponent.

Sometimes the opponent is fairly tight and his range of hands will mostly beat yours so you call down.

Some opponents will semibluff and fire another bullet on the river if you just call the turn.

Some TAGish opponents will raise the turn fold to a 3bet so calling and checkraising the river is usually better/ or betting out.

Some players are just very loose and aggressive and will call your 3 bet and a river bet as well with a King.

So it depends.

[BarronVangorToth]

Good point, so I always assume in these quiz situations that it's John Q. Public who you have no read on.

And I 3-bet John.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)