Twos full of aces

[DBowling]

No stats on villian.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

[The Goober]

I think I'd just call the 3-bet on the river. Your play is so consistent with a big PP that when villain 3-bets the river you have to start worrying about 55, 66, or some random 2.

[deception5]

No stats makes this tough, but most reasonable opponents at 3/6 I would think would not be calling for nearly 1/3 of the pot preflop with 55/66 or a 2 (the blind structure at party is 1/3 right?). I think more often you are up against a big overpair here who is putting you on a lower one. Something like KK/QQ. They are also more likely than 55/66 so I think I would go ahead and cap.

[toss]

I think the river cap is good because he doesn't have to fear a reraise.

[Toonces]

River cap is only right if you think you are ahead more than 50% of the time. I think with this betting 55, 66, and a 2 will happen at least 50% of the time

[DBowling]

you dont think he would 3bet preflop with KK/QQ? As you said, its difficult without stats, but I think 33-TT are more likely than JJ and up.

[mmbt0ne]

3/6 is 1/3 blinds yes? If this is so SB made a pretty big call to have a 2 since he can't have a pair of them.

66 and 55 are the only things that hurt you here, but what hands would he pump this hard that he doesn't 3bet preflop? Any overpair seems like a stretch to be pushing this hard, maybe 99, TT?

I don't know, I find it hard to put an unknown on a big range of hands that you're beating right now, I really think it's 55 or 66 often enough that you should just call the 3bet. However, not being able to be 5bet does make the cap closer.

[DBowling]

pokerstove says my equity against the hand range TT-55 is 80%

[toss]

Under my experince there always seems be a cap no matter what once the board trips. Haha I'm results oriented.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
pokerstove says my equity against the hand range TT-55 is 80%

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but against an unknown, how often is 77, 88, even 99 going to 3bet that river? I probably call the 3bet when I'm playing, but I don't know if it's right.

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
Under my experince there always seems be a cap no matter what once the board trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this statement. people seem more willing to cap low overpairs once the board trips.

[private joker]

I would just call the river 3-bet as well. SB's line of check-call flop, check-raise turn is a standard line for a monster hand, so you might be putting him on 55 or 66 once he 3-bets the river. He knows you have an overpair and still re-raising the river; so he can often beat deuces-full here.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd just call the 3-bet on the river. Your play is so consistent with a big PP that when villain 3-bets the river you have to start worrying about 55, 66, or some random 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
pokerstove says my equity against the hand range TT-55 is 80%

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. DeuceKickerStove says my equity on the river against TT-77 is 100%. My equity against 66-55 is 0%.

You can't credit all these holdings with the same likelihood. Hero's betting is consistent with AA/KK. Think about not just what villain might have, but how does his betting indicate what he thinks Hero has. If he's willing to 3Bet the river given the strong possibility that he puts Hero on AA/KK, the likelihood of 66,55 or a random deuce goes way up against the likelihood of TT-77.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[Hero's betting is consistent with AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW: I believe Hero's betting is consistent with 99-AA.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
you dont think he would 3bet preflop with KK/QQ? As you said, its difficult without stats, but I think 33-TT are more likely than JJ and up.

[/ QUOTE ]

He probably would, but many players would try to slowplay it. The way he played it, calling your preflop raise, smooth calling the flop and raising the turn to me screams that he was trying to slowplay a big hand. Of course the type of person who would do this would also play 55 or 66 this way but likelyhood of those hands is less.

And if this was a better player I think it would be much more likely that you are up against 77-TT. Although the 3-bet on the river certainly would make me question that.

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[Hero's betting is consistent with AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW: I believe Hero's betting is consistent with 99-AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is true, but i dont believe it changes anything given villians likely hand range