QQ under fire

[JTG51]

It's a typical loose passive low limit game.

The hero is in the BB with Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif . Hero's opponents are unknown to him.

UTG limps, EP limps, MP limps, LP limps, SB limps. BB raises and everyone calls.

6 players see the flop for 2 bets each.

Flop: T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds. EP raises. Everyone folds back to Hero who 3 bets. EP calls.

Turn: [T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/club.gif ] A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Hero bets, EP raises, Hero calls.

River: [T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/club.gif A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif ] K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

Hero checks and EP bets.

What do you think of Hero's play so far, and what's his river play? What does UTG1 have?

[Jeffage]

I think Hero should have folded on the turn. You're getting 12-1 to catch one of two outs. Your opponent's play strongly indicates a set or (at worst) a hand that has QQ severely punished...he waits to jam you again on the turn and follows through even though an ace (that could hit ur potential AK) drops. I'm done with the hand against a typical opponent.

Jeff

[JohnShaft]

Think I too would have folded to the turn raise. If he isn't scared enough of the Ace on the turn to stop him raising you should be.
As for Hero's river play I wouldn't have called the turn to fold on the river. But then I plain wouldn't have called the turn.
You're getting 14-1 to call the river bet, so if you think he could be bluffing or he's way too over aggressive you should call only to be shown a better hand, and likely have wasted *TWO* BB's instead of folding to the turn raise.

He probably has A-10s?

[Clarkmeister]

Wow, people have short memories. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

I think this is very instructive. Looking at hands from both sides is one of the best ways to train oneself to start thinking on those deeper levels.

[JTG51]

Shhhhh.... /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I agree about how instructive it is though. The responses are quite different already.

Maybe I should have waited longer? Maybe no one will read this and won't catch on? /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[ZManODS]

Hmmm. up to the turn you played nice and agressive, not giving him the chance to outrdraw you. But the turn was an A, and he was betting strong, possibly with an A-10 or A-k. Nice check on the turn/river.... let me know what he had.

[JTG51]

OK, here's the little twist. I was the unknown UTG1 in the hand, and this is the same hand I posted from my perspective about a week ago. If anyone wants to go back and look, the subject of that one was, "Too aggressive against likely overpair?". It was posted on 1/21/03.

I tried to change the suits to disguise the hand a little, but Clarkmeister's memory is just too good. No wonder why he's such a good player. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Anyway, I had Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif T /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . The BB called me down with his QQ and won the hand. I put him on the right hand, and thought I made it really, really hard for him to call me, but he did anyway. The responses to this perspective at least confirm for me that I made it hard for him to call.

Thanks.

[JohnShaft]

I was thinking on this one last night and decided that from the UTG1 perspective:

The BB (PF raiser) leading, and 3 betting the flop looked for all the world like protecting an overpair and not like a missed big Ace.
Knowing that he has JJ-AA, when the Ace hits (it's more likely he has JJ-KK) it's very likely to be a scare card for him.
Raising is the correct play if you can get him to fold 1 in 5, no matter what UTG+1 has.

4 x -2BB He calls with JJ-KK you check the river and lose
1 x +10BB (pot) He folds JJ-KK, you win the pot.

If he 3 bets you have to fold figuring AA (I guess).
So your play was plus EV no matter your holding, but especially as you normally have 5 outs that would have enabled you to bet the river (only 2 outs in this case though and the case Q hitting could cost you 2 BBs).
I think a good player would have to fold a JJ-KK at *least* one in five times. So it was a good read and play on your part, shame it was nullified by him not being good enough to make the 'correct' laydown.

Thanks for making me think about this from both angles. Something I don't do enough.

You checked the river of course.

[Homer]

Hero should have folded to the turn raise. He is almost definitely drawing at two outs, for which he does not have proper odds.

-- Homer

[JTG51]

I think there's one important thing you missed John. The A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif wasn't just a scare card to his likely KK-JJ, it also gave me a 4 flush.

Also, I didn't check the river. BB checked to me and I bet. I thought there was absolutely no chance I had the best hand, so that was my only chance to win. I thought there was a pretty good chance he'd fold QQ or JJ, I was wrong.

[JohnShaft]

Sorry yeah Q-10 diamonds of course was a 4 flush.

As for betting the river. My feeling in these situations is that, yes you don't feel you can win the river without betting, but the type of person that calls that turn raise is calling the river anyway. That's why I might well check.
I figure he has me beat and will call anyway and cost me another BB.

I still like your play on the turn WITHOUT the 4 flush, as you can put him so well on a big PP, and you only need him to fold 1 in 5. Assuming of course he can make the correct laydowns.

Question for you, was the 4 flush crucial in the turn raise? And could or *should* you have made that play without it (against a normal player) on this read?

[JTG51]

I think you brought up two important things here.

but the type of person that calls that turn raise is calling the river anyway.

You could very well be right, but as Clarkmeister just tried to point out the other day players will in fact call a turn bet and fold to a river bet. I think it's a little more likely in this situation. There are a lot of players that just never bet then fold to a raise on the same street. I think they feel embarassed to bet then fold. They'll often fold to a bet on the next street though.

Question for you, was the 4 flush crucial in the turn raise? And could or *should* you have made that play without it (against a normal player) on this read?

If it was an opponent who I thought would fold an underpair to a scare card, then I think a raise would be a good play with or without the 4 flush. The flush outs just give my raise a lot more equity. A backup plan if you want to think of it that way.

[Ulysses]

There are a lot of players that just never bet then fold to a raise on the same street. I think they feel embarassed to bet then fold. They'll often fold to a bet on the next street though.

I couldn't agree more. I see a lot of players burn through a lot of chips by semi-bluff raising the turn then never following through with a bet on the river when they miss and it's checked to them. Obviously, this won't work much when the board isn't that scary and opponent has something like TPTK, but many opponents will bet and call the turn raise with something like middle pair and will either bet the river if they improve or check-fold if they don't.

[JohnShaft]

Yeah I figure you guys are right now about following through with the river bet. I think that at the lowest of low limits where you are facing utter calling stations and people cannot fold the river bet is probably a bad idea.

But if the game is even half decent LL then a river bet with a pot of 13 BB's has to be near essential. The river being a King, QQ is now calling with both overcards.

I think this (not river betting to fold better hands) is one part of my game I now have to throw off like a well worn coat.

[mojolang]

I can tell you why this wasn't played correctly. Unless you know your player really well, you should NOT be semi-bluffing in a loose low-limit game. It isn a play with -EV. Feeney talks about this. In addition, if this is a tough player (the only type of player that would fold in this scenario), he would probably analyze your play and realize the only hands you could beat him given the flop would be TT (remember you are in EP). given the turn, AK, AQ (less likely given the pocket queens), AJ or AT. Now, wouldn't you have raised had you had AK....yessss. As for AT and AJ, BB made it really difficult to call given the action on the flop. If I were QQ, I probably would have smooth called the flop and check-raised the turn with the plan of showing down the river without a fight. If I got re-raised, I'm gone. That's just me.

[JohnShaft]

I sort of agree except I don't think that the BB made it hard to call the flop. There was 12 SBs in preflop, and another 5 in after his reraise. You would fold out of a 17SB pot for 1 SB?
You have a possible 5 outs even in the likelyhood you're behind.

I think UTG+1 having A10s is a real possibility here, even if you ignore the power set you still have 2 outs.

When the turn hits (and the flush draw) the semi bluff raise by UTG+1 is an excellent play if you think the guy can make a laydown.
Even if he can't you have to call for the flush draw even if you know he has QQ and won't fold to a turn raise. Folding is not an option.

And you have to raise him when you flop top pair, and call the extra SB 3 bet.
I don't think this hand was played wrong. Except by the BB.

[mojolang]

I didn't actually mean a difficult decision between calling and folding, merely that BB put maximum pressure on EP

ATs, AJ, TT, 88, and 55 (the last two pocket pairs are rather unlikely) are the only hands that could be beating BB given the previous action, and assuming that UTG+1 is a decent player (the type of player that you would semi-bluff, as you can see this is a paradox. If he is a good player, then he has you beaten, and if he is a bad player, why would you semi-bluff a calling station?). As I said I would check-raise the turn and put myself in the driver's seat. Also, on the draw, if I was UTG +1 I would call the turn and if my card hit, go for a check raise. After scrutinizing the hand, I don't think either one played too poorly, althought I believe EP overplayed it a bit.