Could you get a hit off of Jamie Moyer?

[ripdog]

I used to think I had a shot at this. He tops out at 85 if the wind is behind him. Then I watch hitters flail at his change, even though everyone in the stadium knows a change is coming. All of the sudden he puts his seemingly weak-ass fastball in on the hands and gets a pop-up. His curve is pretty nasty as well. I don't think I'd stand a chance after watching Chavez fail miserably. On a related note, how many seasons does Moyer have in him? He's 43--could he go 4 more? Does anybody else marvel at how he can lob the ball in to Major League hitters and make them look silly? For the poll: Assume that you get three AB's and he is pitching at his best.

[kerssens]

I think the only thing I'd have going for me is that I haven't faced 95 mph fastballs so his 85 will look fast, as probably will his 70 mph change. The curve would make me look retarded though.

[namknils]

I voted probably, but that's an arrogant vote. With only three at bats it would be very hard, are many major leaguers hitting .333 against this guy? Probably not. Give me 6 at bats.

[M2d]

with a good changeup, 85 can look blazing fast.
who the hell voted "probably"? they better have some pro ball (or some top college ball) under their belts, at least.

[M2d]

how far did you get?

[namknils]

[ QUOTE ]
how far did you get?

[/ QUOTE ]

I almost made the little league all star team when I was 11. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[namknils]

Also, I voted after I read the 3 at bats thing. Anybody would need many more at bats than that. But eventually I like to think (arrogantly) that I would get a hit.

[judgesmails]

A pitcher like Moyer who can locate and change speeds is the hardest kind to hit. I would have a better chance hitting against a closer who throws only two pitches - a hard fastball and a slider - than I would someone like Moyer, Pedro, Maddux.

[Crveballin]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have a better chance hitting against a closer who throws only two pitches - a hard fastball and a slider - than I would someone like Moyer, Pedro, Maddux.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah cause Billy Wagner is pretty easy to hit.

[ThaSaltCracka]

hmmm, I said probably, and I stick by it.

[Dudd]

There's a reason he's been pitching for forever, and it isn't because he can't get people out. I vote for absolutely not, although my baseball career consists of going 0-1 with a strikeout (curves are hard to hit when you've never seen one before) in a dorm league game in which we got no hit through three innings and mercy ruled.

[Phoenix1010]

I'm quite certain I couldn't even get a hit off of my highschool football coach. We played a game of baseball in gym class once, and he pitched to me and decided not to take it easy on me, probably because I was so cocky when it came to basketball and football. I'm as athletic and coordinated as they come, but during those at-bats I had the realization that: A. Hitting a pitch from someone who knows what they're doing is incredibly tough and therefore B. I had absolutely zero chance of making contact with that ball unless he purposely let me, or I devoted a ton of time to learning how to hit. I'm fairly sure I still would have no chance of hitting that guy (he was probably 50 years old at the time), much less any current professional. Getting a hit is much harder than some people think.

[DougOzzzz]

Could I? Sure, I could get lucky. I was a decent hitter in high school. Would I? Almost definitely not. It'd take way more than 3 AB's - maybe 20, before the chances of me getting a hit reached 50%.

[judgesmails]

I did not say anyone was "easy" to hit.

Just to quantify, given 100 ABs vs. Moyer I could probably hit .100. Against Wagner, maybe .120.

My point was that for me, personally, Moyer would be very tough.

[Jack of Arcades]

There is no way you're going to get 12 hits off of Billy Wagner.

[judgesmails]

Okay.

[Jack of Arcades]

I mean, maybe, if you were a pretty good hitter in college or the minors.

[bones]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5536

Lifetime, MLB hitters are hitting .187 off of this guy.

[youtalkfunny]

See The Sports Guy's column, where he was working out with an old, washed-up Tom Seaver, who was trying to rehab for a comeback.

TSG: I think I could hit that curve ball.
SEAVER: Oh yeah? Grab a bat, and dig in.

Sports Guy steps in.

Seaver sends a fastball right over his head.

Sports Guy scurries like a cockroach. When he regains his wits, he does the Walk of Shame back to the bat rack.

[Drac]

Do we get to use an aluminium bat?

[ripdog]

yes

[SomethingClever]

Give me an entire day to swing at his pitches, and I'll get a handfull of hits off him.

I'd probably bat about .030.

I'm pretty athletic, but hitting a pitched baseball is something I've never been trained to do.

[KingDan]

If I knew what pitch was coming, then I would get a hit.
Unless he threw outside curves on me. For some reason I could never hit it.

[ripdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Give me an entire day to swing at his pitches, and I'll get a handfull of hits off him.

I'd probably bat about .030.

I'm pretty athletic, but hitting a pitched baseball is something I've never been trained to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was a very good hitter in my prime, but I never faced a pitcher that could change speeds like Moyer. Back then, I would have told you that I could absolutely get a hit. Now I realize how tough it is to time your swing to a pitcher like Moyer. He'd make me look silly, now or then.

[Uston]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, maybe, if you were a pretty good hitter in college or the minors.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Maybe if he is currently a great hitter in college or the minors.

This reminds me of my roommate freshman year who thought he could play wide receiver at FSU despite being a backup TE in HS.

[tdarko]

what makes moyer difficult is his ability to change speeds with his off-speed pitches (breaking ball and change-up), this adds a whole other dimension for him to pitch with whereas most are trying to change speeds with their fastball by throwing a two-seam or a cutter he is doing it with his breaking pitches and then throwing cutters and two-seamers at 77-79mph...so then when you get that 1 pitch at 84 in on your hands it looks like 94.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
what makes moyer difficult is his ability to change speeds with his off-speed pitches (breaking ball and change-up), this adds a whole other dimension for him to pitch with whereas most are trying to change speeds with their fastball by throwing a two-seam or a cutter he is doing it with his breaking pitches and then throwing cutters and two-seamers at 77-79mph...so then when you get that 1 pitch at 84 in on your hands it looks like 94.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy has a current BAA of .295. I don't think major league hitters are agreeing with you that he's amazingly tough to hit.

Not saying I could get a hit off of him. Danny Graves would make me look silly, but let's stop talking about how Jamie Moyer's so much harder to get a hit off of than Wags.

Mo only uses one pitch, but he's not exactly a cakewalk.

[tdarko]

he is 43 arcades give him a break, this is by far his worst year in a while--your the stat guy you tell the last time he has been this bad. i am just telling you his reasons for success in his career not necessarily this year, everyone thinks its JUST the changeup but one pitch doesn't dominate big league hitters when you can't overpower them.

[Drac]

Even with the aluminum bat hitting .333 off any major league pitcher is a stretch. Do I think I'd hit the ball? Yes. Would I get an actual "hit" in 3 cracks? Probably not.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
he is 43 arcades give him a break, this is by far his worst year in a while--your the stat guy you tell the last time he has been this bad. i am just telling you his reasons for success in his career not necessarily this year, everyone thinks its JUST the changeup but one pitch doesn't dominate big league hitters when you can't overpower them.

[/ QUOTE ]

2000.

He has a career BAA of .265 and a career best of like .240.

[wayabvpar]

After watching his godawful performance last night in Oakland, I might need to change my vote /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[DeezNuts]

People that vote "absolutely", "probably", or even "probably not" seem to think that making contact and putting the ball in play constitutes a "hit". This is not so at all. If you really want to think about it, if any of us came to bat, the infield(and outfield) would be at a very, very shallow depth and getting an actual hit would be near impossible.

DN

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
2000.


[/ QUOTE ]
thank you for proving my point--5 years ago is a long time ago.

and another thing pitchers that aren't overpowering are going to give up more hits than a billy wagner or randy johnson but they also get more GBDP's and pitch out of jams very well as does moyer. when looking at moyer you don't look at his opponent BA...look at his wins and IP because he wins games and saves your bullpen, well until this year at least.

[Jack of Arcades]

The topic is about getting a hit off of Jamie Moyer. How is his BAA not the most important thing? Also, how about the fact that he pitches in safeco?

Look, I like Moyer. I enjoy that type of pitcher. Hell, I'm a Braves fan, and I watched Glavine for years. I'm not badmouthing him or anything, really - but a pitcher likes him gets by on not walking anyone and not allowing homers, and his pitching repetoire is based on his ability to change speeds... which is something that, once it evaporates, triggers a huge fall. Moyer's doing that now.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, how about the fact that he pitches in safeco?


[/ QUOTE ]
has to do with HR totals not hits.
[ QUOTE ]
which is something that, once it evaporates, triggers a huge fall. Moyer's doing that now.

[/ QUOTE ]
no kidding, i wish he would start showing better command again...a guy like him can't continue to pitch behind in the count at 1-0 and 2-0 and not pay for it.

[Jack of Arcades]

Park Factoring (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/park-factoring/)

[ QUOTE ]
Now that we've looked at the places that have been friendly to hitters, let's check out the other end of the spectrum: pitcher's parks. For overall run scoring, no place has been worse than Safeco Field in Seattle, which has cut runs by 18.0%. This shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as Safeco Field has been a great place for pitchers since it opened in 1999.

Interestingly though, it hasn't been all that difficult to hit for power in Seattle this year (despite what the Mariners' hitters would have you believe), as Safeco Field has actually been favorable for hitting both homers (+2.8%) and doubles (+3.8%). What has really cut down on the run scoring in Seattle is that Safeco Field has been the worst place in baseball to hit triples (-51.3%) and singles, as hits in general have been cut down by 14.5% despite increases in doubles and homers.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tdarko]

this isn't because of the park jack it's because the mariner's suck this year including moyer, that place is a graveyard but when a ball is hit on the button over and over it doesnt matter what field it's at the homeruns and hit totals are going to jump.

[ripdog]

[ QUOTE ]
People that vote "absolutely", "probably", or even "probably not" seem to think that making contact and putting the ball in play constitutes a "hit". This is not so at all. If you really want to think about it, if any of us came to bat, the infield(and outfield) would be at a very, very shallow depth and getting an actual hit would be near impossible.

DN

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Making contact does not equal getting a base hit. Throw in a Major League defense behind him and the odds plummet even further.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
this isn't because of the park jack it's because the mariner's suck this year including moyer, that place is a graveyard but when a ball is hit on the button over and over it doesnt matter what field it's at the homeruns and hit totals are going to jump.

[/ QUOTE ]

Darko,

You don't know how park factors are figured.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't know how park factors are figured.

[/ QUOTE ]
tell me then.

i do know that the park is a constant and the players inside the park aren't constant. in the end the numbers have ZERO to do with the park and everything to do with the players because if they are not getting it done (and the mariners aren't this year, they are terrible) then the totals are going to be higher.

are you really trying to tell me that safeco is easier to get a hit in this year or something?

[Jack of Arcades]

The short answer is that it's based on Home/Road splits. That's not quite right, but it's the easiest way to explain it.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't know how park factors are figured.

[/ QUOTE ]
tell me then.

i do know that the park is a constant and the players inside the park aren't constant. in the end the numbers have ZERO to do with the park and everything to do with the players because if they are not getting it done (and the mariners aren't this year, they are terrible) then the totals are going to be higher.

are you really trying to tell me that safeco is easier to get a hit in this year or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you get that idea? I meant that his BAA was less impressive because he played in safeco.

[judgesmails]

I discussed this scenario with a current AAA player for the Las Vegas 51s. He is a former US Olymian and average AAA hitter - Nick Theodorou.

The important factor in this discussion is the number of at-bats - 100. According to Nick, and this is the point I was trying to make, Moyer has more ways of getting you out than a power pitcher like Wagner and therefore is more difficult to hit time and time again.

Given one AB against both, Wagner would blow you away and you may be able to slap something out there against Moyer.

But given time, a good hitter will figure out Wagner and hit him harder than he would Moyer. That is why pitchers like Wagner close instead of start. If they were starters they would get killed the third time around the order. To be an effective starter in the majors you need more than two pitches.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
I discussed this scenario with a current AAA player for the Las Vegas 51s. He is a former US Olymian and average AAA hitter - Nick Theodorou.

The important factor in this discussion is the number of at-bats - 100. According to Nick, and this is the point I was trying to make, Moyer has more ways of getting you out than a power pitcher like Wagner and therefore is more difficult to hit time and time again.

Given one AB against both, Wagner would blow you away and you may be able to slap something out there against Moyer.

But given time, a good hitter will figure out Wagner and hit him harder than he would Moyer. That is why pitchers like Wagner close instead of start. If they were starters they would get killed the third time around the order. To be an effective starter in the majors you need more than two pitches.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they were starters, they also wouldn't able throw as hard... I don't think Wagner would be touching 100 30 times a year if he had to face 30 batters every five days...

I'm sure Gagne's added 3 MPH to his fastball since his days as a starter.

Anyway, I'm a HUGE fan of Nick Theodorou. I don't think he'll ever be a productive major league player, but I love his approach to the plate... a guy with almost no power that draws a ton of walks.