QQ hand... I check call my rivered set

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ...

Strange hand. Villian was 62/0/.1/25 over 26 hands. I think I like the flop 3-bet as it allows me to go into calldown mode if villian caps. This is great 2 pair and straight board and I don't want to cr the turn with the worse hand. On the river I was puzzled. I sucked out on 2 pair but am toast against the straight. Since I couldn't stomach bet-folding I decided to check call. Thoughts?

Krishan

[spydog]

Tough one.

I would imagine check-call, bet-fold, CR/Fold to 3-bet would have close to the same expecation on this hand.

I'm a skirt so I just check-call.

[Wes ManTooth]

check call

[pudley4]

I think it's close enough in expectation between check-call and bet-fold, that even if bet-fold was the higher EV line, I'd give up the difference to be able to see his hand (especially since you've only got 26 hands on him).

[Alobar]

Ive been donk betting these hands lately HU (could be why im losing tho /images/graemlins/smile.gif). Since he has position, Im worried about the free card. Lots of people will cap here with nothing but a ten and then check behind the turn. So HU I just call his flop raise, and lead the turn (sans 7 or Q). If he pops me again, I call down. If this is god awful thinking, someone straighten me out.

River is tough. I prolly check/call? Tho I might bet call. If he was playing J9, J8, 98, he may very well check beind. But I suppose there is JT T9, T7, the very rare QT or random Tx hands he played aggresively/ So I guess there is more combinations with a T than without. Yeah, I check/call.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Ive been donk betting these hands lately HU (could be why im losing tho ). Since he has position, Im worried about the free card. Lots of people will cap here with nothing but a ten and then check behind the turn. So HU I just call his flop raise, and lead the turn (sans 7 or Q). If he pops me again, I call down. If this is god awful thinking, someone straighten me out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's aweful. If someone caps for a free card it's not the end of the world. They paid more than if they just called the flop and turn. More often I think your putting in chips when you are behind. The point of a flop 3 bet is to save bets when you are behind. Now I sometimes stop and go to charge a likely draw. But that has to be read based rather then the default.

Did you look at the read I provided?

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

River is tough. I prolly check/call? Tho I might bet call. If he was playing J9, J8, 98, he may very well check beind. But I suppose there is JT T9, T7, the very rare QT or random Tx hands he played aggresively/ So I guess there is more combinations with a T than without. Yeah, I check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a strange spot. I don't think J9, J8, T8 will check behind. That weighed pretty heavily in my decision to check call.

I also don't think it's likely that he has a one pair hand + draw. It's pretty rare that you get someone willing to cap + bet the turn who happens to have the stats this guy did even over a small sample.

I think he either has t7, j9, j8, 98, qt, jj, 99, or 88.

Krishan

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]


Did you look at the read I provided?



[/ QUOTE ]

mean that 26 hand thing? I ignored it on general principle /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Did you look at the read I provided?



[/ QUOTE ]

mean that 26 hand thing? I ignored it on general principle /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Ignoring it isn't bad per se. But I think it's better to allow it to color your thoughts slightly. Especially since they are on th extreme VP$IP/PFR/Agg.

Krishan

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]

It's a strange spot. I don't think J9, J8, T8 will check behind. That weighed pretty heavily in my decision to check call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hands you mentioned, plus the possibility of an underset would seem to make a river checkraise plausible, no? I know I will get berated for saying this, but I think I can fold to a river 3-bet here against a passive player (even if it's only after 26 hands).

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

River is tough. I prolly check/call? Tho I might bet call. If he was playing J9, J8, 98, he may very well check beind. But I suppose there is JT T9, T7, the very rare QT or random Tx hands he played aggresively/ So I guess there is more combinations with a T than without. Yeah, I check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a strange spot. I don't think J9, J8, T8 will check behind. That weighed pretty heavily in my decision to check call.

I also don't think it's likely that he has a one pair hand + draw. It's pretty rare that you get someone willing to cap + bet the turn who happens to have the stats this guy did even over a small sample.

I think he either has t7, j9, j8, 98, qt, jj, 99, or 88.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I very much disagree that people wont play pair+draw this way, I think lots of people will.

If you feel he will still bet those 2 pair hands, then obviously check/call That brings up the interesting, do we c/r here questiong? If you think he isnt playing pair+draw or draw this way, you are only looking at one combination of QT, so there arent alot of flopped str8 combos out there. You can safely fold to a 3 bet, are you good enough times?

Also, I'd like to point out that on your solid 26 hand read, you use this as reasoning he wont play pair+draw like this (cuz hes so passive) but yet you assume he still bets his 2 pair on the river when 4 to a straight are out? I watch passive players check behind QQ on a Q3467 boards all the time, even tho I raised PF and theres no way in the world I would have a 5.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'd like to point out that on your solid 26 hand read, you use this as reasoning he wont play pair+draw like this (cuz hes so passive)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not read based. I don't think your average 5-10 players plays a pair + draw like this. Maybe is standard at 10-20 but at 5-10, people try the free card play, it fails and they go into calldown mode. It takes a special person to cap for a free card. I tend to identify the type within 30 hands. This person wasn't that type. It wasn't really based on stats at all.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
yet you assume he still bets his 2 pair on the river when 4 to a straight are out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think players that cap the flop in this spot often bet the river. Again it's not stat based. It's just based on my experience at 5/10.

I think the river cr fold to 3-bet has merit. I don't think I've ever used it and it didn't pop into my head.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
ou are only looking at one combination of QT, so there arent alot of flopped str8 combos out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This fact is the one thing I missed when I played this hand. Nice catch.

Krishan

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'd like to point out that on your solid 26 hand read, you use this as reasoning he wont play pair+draw like this (cuz hes so passive)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not read based. I don't think your average 5-10 players plays a pair + draw like this. Maybe is standard at 10-20 but at 5-10, people try the free card play, it fails and they go into calldown mode. It takes a special person to cap for a free card. I tend to identify the type within 30 hands. This person wasn't that type. It wasn't really based on stats at all.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

in the case of pair+draw its not capping for the free card, its for value, and even doubly so in the mind of the fish

obviously you had a read other than just those numbers, so go with it

[krishanleong]

Okay Villian had J9. I think the best ways to play this river is check-raise.

Krishan

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay Villian had J9. I think the best ways to play this river is check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer a bet/crying call.

[etizzle]

IMO the best line is check-raise-fold, but that takes some balls.

I would bet-crycall as well.

[wheelz]

I think check-raise-fold might be best against other players, but against this guy I definitely like betting. Won't he check behind a lot of sets/2 pairs when the straight card falls?

I realize the sample size is small, so we probably would have to bet/crying call and not bet/fold, but with numbers that extreme can't we safely assume he'll check behind the river a lot without a straight?

[Trix]

Check-raise.

Only reasonable straight is QT and 3 of the Qs are in use, lots of 2pair combinations though.

If you know him well, then maybe fold to 3bet.

[Trix]

You think he will check 2 pair through if you check ?

Check-calling seem alot better than bet-calling to me.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
You think he will check 2 pair through if you check ?

Check-calling seem alot better than bet-calling to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But I don't think he raises much so bet-X may be better than check-call.

Krishan

[Klepton]

i think c/ring and folding to a 3bet is the best line, there's no way he's 3-betting without a straight, and he'll call with any 2-pair/lower set

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
i think c/ring and folding to a 3bet is the best line, there's no way he's 3-betting without a straight, and he'll call with any 2-pair/lower set

[/ QUOTE ]

I think c/r-fold to 3bet is a very ambitious line, but I know I personally have never taken it.

My understanding was that I'm never 93% (1 in 14 to call the 3bet) sure that he wont be 3betting me with an overzealous QJ or 99 or somesuch. Does anyone employ this type of line regularly?

Surf