Understanding Poker Equity

[Bill Lumberg]

I’m new to poker and thought it would be a good idea to just post my current understanding of the thought process of analyzing your hands as you play as sort of an essay and then let the veteran 2+2ers correct it like professors.

The only factor that goes into whether or not you make money is if the sum of the equities of the choices you make is positive. So, our thought process at the table shouldn’t be so much about if we have the best hand or not, or on winning any one particular hand, just the percentage of the time we will win (given all of the circumstances) compared to the pot size. This will then tell us the right course of action. Therefore, you want to train yourself to be able to identify this in every situation. Obviously, you won’t have a calculator at the table, so being able to estimate as accurately as possible is the one of the best skills to have. This equity is expressed in a percentage of the time that you will win. Therefore, you must learn how to add and subtract percentages from the value of your hand for different circumstances (i.e. opponents, board texture, etc.) to come up with the most accurate value for your hand.

Here’s how:

On the flop, you must have an idea of the percentage strength of different kinds of hands. Once you are able to identify fairly accurately this percentage strength, you take the strength of your hand (% of the time it will be the best based on what your opponents probably hold) and adjust it to the number of opponents you are facing and the degree of aggression they have shown so far (adjusted for the type of player they are, of course). When you come up with this percentage, you must then adjust it by adding or subtracting your expectation for the rest of the hand (positive or negative). This is the chance that you will improve to the best hand if you don’t have it already compared to the chance an opponent will improve to a hand better than yours. (Is this right?). Also, you would add positive expectation for the possibility of opponents folding to your bet or raise and negative expectation for a raise behind you (depends on opponents). Using these, you would add or subtract and come up with a final percentage value for your hand. To decide how much your hand is worth and if it’s positive, you would multiply this percentage by the pot size to see how much your hand is worth at that time. If it’s more than the current bet, you can bet, raise, or call. If it’s less, your equity is negative and you should fold. If it’s close, then apply implied odds or reverse implied odds to push the decision a one way or the other.

The hard part is being accurate, no?

[Mark1808]

To sum up what you said, the object of the game is to make positive EV bets. The tough part is knowing your players and thus calculating potential payoffs with various plays based on your estimations of what hands a player plays and how they are likely to respond to various bets given certain hands.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I’m new to poker and thought it would be a good idea to just post my current understanding of the thought process of analyzing your hands as you play as sort of an essay and then let the veteran 2+2ers correct it like professors.

The only factor that goes into whether or not you make money is if the sum of the equities of the choices you make is positive. So, our thought process at the table shouldn’t be so much about if we have the best hand or not, or on winning any one particular hand, just the percentage of the time we will win (given all of the circumstances) compared to the pot size. This will then tell us the right course of action. Therefore, you want to train yourself to be able to identify this in every situation. Obviously, you won’t have a calculator at the table, so being able to estimate as accurately as possible is the one of the best skills to have. This equity is expressed in a percentage of the time that you will win. Therefore, you must learn how to add and subtract percentages from the value of your hand for different circumstances (i.e. opponents, board texture, etc.) to come up with the most accurate value for your hand.

Here’s how:

On the flop, you must have an idea of the percentage strength of different kinds of hands. Once you are able to identify fairly accurately this percentage strength, you take the strength of your hand (% of the time it will be the best based on what your opponents probably hold) and adjust it to the number of opponents you are facing and the degree of aggression they have shown so far (adjusted for the type of player they are, of course). When you come up with this percentage, you must then adjust it by adding or subtracting your expectation for the rest of the hand (positive or negative). This is the chance that you will improve to the best hand if you don’t have it already compared to the chance an opponent will improve to a hand better than yours. (Is this right?). Also, you would add positive expectation for the possibility of opponents folding to your bet or raise and negative expectation for a raise behind you (depends on opponents). Using these, you would add or subtract and come up with a final percentage value for your hand. To decide how much your hand is worth and if it’s positive, you would multiply this percentage by the pot size to see how much your hand is worth at that time. If it’s more than the current bet, you can bet, raise, or call. If it’s less, your equity is negative and you should fold. If it’s close, then apply implied odds or reverse implied odds to push the decision a one way or the other.

The hard part is being accurate, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops, forgot the factors:

Factors determining equity:
1. Hand strength
2. Number of opponents
3. Aggression shown
4. Fold equity
5. Board texture
6. opponent’s personality
7. Chance of being raised
8. Positive potential
9. Negative potential

[Bill Lumberg]

So, to start, you can learn the concrete factors based on the cards: strength of hand, number of opponents, board texture, positive potential, negative potential.

If you can know these as a foundation, then you can more quickly adjust up or down based on the situational factors: aggression shown, fold equity, opponent's personality, chance of being raised?

[pzhon]

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I’m new to poker and thought it would be a good idea to just post my current understanding of the thought process of analyzing your hands as you play as sort of an essay and then let the veteran 2+2ers correct it like professors.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok. Please keep in mind that poker is a complicated game, so you shouldn't expect to have figured it out so quickly.

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The only factor that goes into whether or not you make money is if the sum of the equities of the choices you make is positive.

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Wrong. It also matters what your opponents do. If you have a choice between giving your opponent a tough decision or not, you should be willing to sacrifice a bit of equity (versus an ideal opponent) to give your opponent a tougher decision.

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So, our thought process at the table shouldn’t be so much about if we have the best hand or not, or on winning any one particular hand, just the percentage of the time we will win (given all of the circumstances) compared to the pot size.

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That's one thing to think about, but not the only thing, and it can lead you to the wrong action.

Suppose you have 5555 showing in 7 card stud. There is no better hand you can make, so everyone knows you have quad fives. Quad fives is so strong that you are extremely likely to win, though it may be possible that someone just completed a straightflush. You have just enough money for one last bet. Should you bet on 7th street? No. Even though your estimate may be that you are ahead over 90% of the time, it is horribly wrong to bet, since you will only be called when you are beaten.

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This will then tell us the right course of action.

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No, it won't. There are many times when you know you have a monster hand, but it is unclear how to get the most in. Do you bet, then 3-bet if raised? Do you bet, call a raise, then check-raise on the next street? Do you check-raise and lead the next street? It's even more complicated when you don't have a monster.

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Therefore, you want to train yourself to be able to identify this in every situation. Obviously, you won’t have a calculator at the table, so being able to estimate as accurately as possible is the one of the best skills to have.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you were allowed to have a calculator at the table, and could make all of the calculations you want, this wouldn't make you a good poker player.

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This equity is expressed in a percentage of the time that you will win.

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It shouldn't be. That neglects important factors such as the size of the bets in relation to the pot and your position. It ignores the information advantage you can have on later streets: With one hand, on the river you will know whether you have a busted draw or a monster you can bet for value. With another hand with the same winning chances, you might have no idea whether you are ahead or behind, so on average you pay off bets while behind and can't bet for value when you are ahead.

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Therefore, you must learn how to add and subtract percentages from the value of your hand for different circumstances (i.e. opponents, board texture, etc.) to come up with the most accurate value for your hand.

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I recommend learning to play poker instead.

Suppose you have KJo in the small blind, and you are playing NL, heads-up, with stacks 1000 times the size of the blinds. You are first to act. You know your hands is a clear favorite over a random hand. Do you move in? Of course not. You will usually pick up the blinds, as many better hands will fold, but when you get called you will be far behind.

There are many different levels of thinking in poker. Here are a few basic ones:

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Think about the strength of your hand.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Think about what your opponents might have.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Think about what your opponents think you might have.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Think about how much each line of play will win or lose against each possible hand your opponent could have.

To play poker well, you need to progress beyond evaluating the probability your hand will win.