help with analysis please - newbie using Lee Jones technique

[strategem]

Hi all

Edit: lol... I didn't really consider the fact that I am referring to a book by the competition here at twoplustwo! Believe me, I know little, but I know that Sklansky and Malmuth are the twin Titans in the Hold-Em book world /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

First things first - this seems like a much better community than the other one I was just checking out /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Also, meant this to go in the 'Beginners' forum... sorry about that - can/should it be moved?

This is an old story, and if someone wants to direct me to old posts as an answer it's no problem. I did review the first few pages on this thread. I am a beginner playing at the Paradise .50/1.00 tables, using Jones WLLHE techniques. I need to know -

a) my fold rate is remarkably consistent over my first 8 sessions, which makes sense since I am going by the book. I am folding 88% of my hands pre-flop - does this seem right?

b) My stats under 'your actions' are something like - fold on flop 76%, call 12%, bet 6%,raise 2%. I presume this indicates what I do after I see a flop. I thought that the last time I looked, they didn't add up to 100, not sure why, maybe this is a mistake on my part.

Now I have learned one thing in my two weeks of experience - losers check and call, winners bet and raise /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I want to raise more but I am out so much!

my second question is predictable. I have spent some time tracking the actions and stats of the few winning players at these micro-limit tables. In fact, I have broken the rules and sought out the tables with these strong players so that I could watch them play (a cheap lesson on .50/1.00). I have noticed that their techniques are remarkably similiar, and that they don't bear much resemblance to the techniques I am trying.

Now, I am not so naive as to immediately suggest that 'Jones technique doesn't work' or 'These tables are unfair' or something like that. I have done the rake calculations and certainly it would be a surprise if cheating was instigated by the cardroom itself. Why kill the goose that laid the golden egg? I have gone from $100 to $40 over the course of 8 2-hour sessions, i.e. $60 loss over 8 sessions. It is not like I am playing mistake free poker, but there are whole sessions where I don't seem to make any obvious blunders. Most sessions are about the same, just a gradual drift down, watching a LOT (88% of the time!). I have had a couple of winning sessions. I stop after 2 hours, having lost i.e. 10-15, because it seems to me that another two hours will just produce more of the same results - is this a mistake? I believe that the problem lies in my play, not in the techniques. I am just wondering, can anyone make a comment on the use of these techniques as a learning tool vs. what I see as the techniques used by other apparently winning players?

Last, I read an expert, who said "Beginners should be able to beat Wilson Turbo Texas Hold Em's lowlimit.lup setting before playing real money games. Any comment? Thanks a lot, Nik

[JohnShaft]

Hmmm, well I have quite a lot of experience in exactly the types of very low limit games online you are talking about (not on Paradise though).

My thoughts:
12% flop shows you have very good discipline, especially for a beginner, but my thoughts are this is too LOW for .50/1 on Paradise. If the tables are reasonably loose you are missing opportunities with Pocket Pairs and suited connectors you should be taking (ideally if you can get in cheap).

3/4 of the time you are folding on the flop, that seems a little too high, depending on what and how you are playing. (You should be flopping a pair with your big cards 1/3 of the time)
The fact that you are calling 12% of the time and only raising a miniscule 2% is not good.
Particularly if you are playing good cards you want to be raising when you are flopping top pair against players much looser than yourself.

My general advice to you would be to loosen up preflop in the way I suggested. And become more aggressive on the flop and after.
Playing weak-tight at these tables is really not going to help you. Tight and aggressive is still the way to beat even the lowest of limits.

Oh and as for Lee Jones book, the suggested way of playing in there really should make you a winning play over time in these type of games. But the key in everything you read is adapting it for the games you play in.

Good luck and I think you're on the right track.
But note that $100 for .50/1 really is not enough to be able to cope with a run of bad cards. Aim for 200 (Ideally 300) Big Bets Minimum IMO.

[pufferfish]

In fact, I have broken the rules and sought out the tables with these strong players so that I could watch them play (a cheap lesson on .50/1.00).

You might want to do this as an observer. Practice seeking out the easier games where the fact that you've read a poker book is gonna count.

[Ted]

My experience: 4 months ago, I had never played poker. I bought Jones, and played micro limit using his "technique". After 3,000 hands, I’m averaging 1BB per hour. So, it worked for me, even if a lot of people like to take shots at the book (do a search for "Jones" in the books/software forum).

My advice: (1) move your bankroll to a site where the limits are lower and the play is softer (e.g. UB or Planet); and (2) download, print and study the hand history for every hand on which you see the flop - reexamine every decision you made - recognize your mistakes and try to learn from them.

Good luck.

[Ed Miller]

Hi stratagem... welcome to our forums. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I think the Jones book is ok (I don't like it as much as some do here... I dislike the preflop advice especially), but that you should pick up the S&M books if you are serious about poker. HPFAP is the best book available on Holdem by far... and will give you all the tools you need to be successful at 0.50-1 and at 50-100.

Frankly, if you can afford the education, I think the idea about playing against better opponents is a good one. Playing against loose-aggressive players still makes me uncomfortable, so sometimes I try to seek them out at the lower limit tables at Paradise so I can get some cheaper education.

As for your results... you are making tons of mistakes. I felt the exact same way that you did when I started playing poker six months ago. I read and reread the books, played by the rules preflop, and lost and lost. I chalked it up to bad luck at first (and I still think I got a little more than my share of that), but as I played more and more, and reread the books and especially read the advice on this forum... I realized that I was routinely making signficant (mostly postflop) mistakes. After about three months as a losing player, I turned it around and have been quite successful over the past three months and have even started playing in the 10-20 game (when it isn't full of the loose-aggressives that make my stomach churn).

So expect to lose a few bucks at first... but if you put in the effort to study and correct your mistakes (unlike your poor-playing opponents who never think twice about the way they play) you will certainly learn to print your own money at these small online games that are currently beating you.

[strategem]

Hi John

Really appreciate your taking the time to provide a detailed response - the bit about minimum stake really got my attention. I once had a run of 30 flops where I didn't get playable cards, and I was beginning to wonder. But I guess the cards can run bad at any time. I will review your advice and try to apply it.

pufferfish - good advice - I do this with the high limit games so why not with the game I want a piece of? That said, i realize that I can't model my play on what I see at the high limit tables.

Ted - Great to hear from someone who has taken a similiar path. Do people take shots at the Jones book? I will do that search you suggested. I have never downloaded a hand history - I will do my first one after my next session. An obvious move, thanks for pointing it out.

Majorkong- Your story is certainly encouraging - thanks! And yes, you are right - until I have 3 or 4 sessions under my belt with no bad blunders, I should work on eliminating those. I assuem that you can infer more subtle mistakes just by looking at my bet/raise percentages. Downloading my hand histories is something I will start doing immediately.

I'm going to try to remember that as long as there are players with the kind of technique I see on these low-limit tables, there MUST be a way for me to do well. I have the desire and the willingness to put the time in. I worry that these fish will go away just as I get good enough... and this will probably make the veterans laugh /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[bernie]

i agree the responses so i wont rehash...

"Last, I read an expert, who said "Beginners should be able to beat Wilson Turbo Texas Hold Em's lowlimit.lup setting before playing real money games. Any comment?"

this i will comment on...since im one of the bigger advocates of this program on this forum...

i think this line is bull. just because you can beat a LL game doesnt mean your ready for higher limit and vice versa....the only thing that restricts you is your bankroll size.

holdem is not a 'limit' game...it's a texture game. in general, higher the limit the tighter/tougher the texture....so lets say you can beat this texture...the opponents may be more predictable since they may be more knowledgeable...this doesnt mean you can auto-beat a LL passive game texture. and vice versa...learn the adjustments for many textures, or at least think of them that way and youll be ahead of the 'monetary' thinkers.

i would recommend using TTH to get the basics down. there's no reason to spend money in a room to learn those. meaning, basic preflop play and flop play....even some intermediate flop play. i use this to see if some parts of my basic game are off too....sometimes im suprised how far i slide at times...depending on how much ive been conditioning myself to one texture of a table...

if you use the 'when to play' stat under player evaluation, (dont worry about the 'when to bet' stat...disregard it, if your playing right it will say your too aggressive) if your up in the high 80s/low 90s youll be about break even in a typical LL game. if you hit the mid 90s, you should be winning a little.
but remember, you only really need to see the preflop and flop stat for this...

it's a great tool, and well worth the investment. if you know how to use it...

but there's really no way to build a badbeat skin other than live play. nothing prepares you for that. and youll see that much more often in LL. TTH doesnt quite convey the feeling of getting used to this in a live situation...and it is a tough hurdle to go over because its an emotional reaction. but the more you understand the game, and expereince you gain, the less your emotions should come through on beats

hope this helps...

b

[strategem]

Hi Bernie and others
To all those who have responded so far, see my reply to JohnShaft for a personal response to each of you, and once again, thanks.

Bernie, I am glad to get some feedback on this since I haven't been able to get anyone to comment on this advice which I heard. I have actually talked to a few very experienced players on the phone and I understand that eventually, the game is less about which exact hands you play and more about reading your situations. One semi-pro told me that he doesn't 'play cards' or worry about following the book on 'check bet raise fold' - instead, he plays people, but of course this is in a brick and mortar room, where he can see their eyes. Your comments about different textures and your approach to them echo his .

I will definitely be getting the program and will refer back to your post when I get it. Thanks for taking the time to respond, and yes, it definitely helps. Nik

[mobes]

You seem way too passive. If your preflop requirements are as high as you say they are, then how is it you only find 2% of hands to raise the flop on? Most of the people at those limits will play any 2 suited or any two that can make a straight. You will be burned sometims, but you need to make these poeple pay for their crappy hands, and then when they don't make them your pots will be huge.

[strategem]

Hi mobes

Your comments echo those of others here - I guess the best answer I can give is - when I get good pocket cards and enter, and the flop comes up nowhere remotely near my cards, I fold instead of staying in and hoping for a help on the turn and the river. Also, I am trying to incorporate the concept of pot odds and implied odds into my play - that is, if I go in with 'good' cards and the flop comes up bad and there is not enough betting to justify further draws, I just fold them down right away. I thought I was doing a good job of calculating on the fly - I'm pretty good at math.

I think a part of this is initial stake - I have never taken an i.e. '100 small bet' stake in and played for i.e. 6 hours to see whether the odds will come around eventually. It seems rare that I get a winning streak to start with, and when I get a losing streak I just wrap up that session after a loss of i.e. 10-15 dollars. I suppose it is possible that these sessions just happened to go in such a way that I got bad beats right at the start, but I am skeptical... I think it's more likely that there is something wrong with my play. I am going to start downloading my hand histories and studying them. Anyway, thanks a lot for taking the time to respond. I will remember what you said. Nik

[JohnShaft]

As for money management I would suggest, especially as a beginner, the following.

Bankroll: 200-300 Big Bets at least. This will protect you from trying to protect your money as, if you lose a little, you know you have plenty left.
Buyin: I wouldn't suggest sitting down with $100 at .50/1 or even 1/2. Buyin with say 25 Big Bets. If you go broke, in these early stages leave the game and come back another time. This will protect you from both bad games and going on tilt, things which at this point you may not be able to recognise well.
When you've played enough to avoid going on tilt (as much) and recongnizing it and non profitable games then this becomes less of a factor.

If you are continuing to lose 25 BB buyins time after time then it looks like the game is a little too much for you atm. At which point drop down a limit, or at very least only look for good tables with bad players.
Rinse and repeat.

[strategem]

Hi John

I feel that I am much better at recognizing when I am about to tilt than at recognizing a bad game. Hopefully these skills will come. I will definitely try to go in with a bigger bankroll after exhausting my current stake. Luckily at these microlimit tables, the bankroll isn't a problem. In fact, there is a .25/.50 table at UB which was pointed out by one of the other respondents - I have been checking out the play today. It is really amazing - the hand I just watched, one player had pocket 44 and the board, in the end, was As Ks 6s 7h 9h

this individual was in all the way to the end and beyond, folding only when the bet came after the river. Hoping for a thrid four, I guess... not realizing that the A high flush was the nuts anyway! Truly amazing. Isn't that 'drawing dead'? So many hands could beat him. This is the part that is a little disturbing - with play like this, I should have a chance of winning! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Another point is the pocket cards which the big winners go in with, which I mentioned earlier. . Since they bear little resemblance to the standard definition of 'tight' hands to open with, I must assume that these players are playing the other people at the table and as bernie put it, the 'texture' of the game, as opposed to just their cards. I WILL learn, though, and your advice is welcome, anytime. Nik

[JohnShaft]

UB .25/.50 is a great choice. It is exactly where I got my first taste of real money poker on the net a little over a year ago now. I ended up spending a few months just there.
I've now graduated to the higher low limit of 3/6 lol. And never used a penny of my own money.

With your discipline and perserverance I'm sure it will only be a matter of time until you beat it, and beyond.
Good luck.

[Ed Miller]

Another point is the pocket cards which the big winners go in with, which I mentioned earlier. . Since they bear little resemblance to the standard definition of 'tight' hands to open with, I must assume that these players are playing the other people at the table and as bernie put it, the 'texture' of the game, as opposed to just their cards.

It is much more likely that these players are long-term losers who are simply having a good day.

[bernie]

glad i helped...

remember, its also a texture game online....it's just you cant see the guy break his mouse on the table /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

a last thing....develop a default starting hand selection for games you havent got a line on texturewise. ie...early in the session...then once you get the rythym of the table, you can slide to either tighter or looser depending on what you see...

TTH really helps ingrain this type of basic, default selection, making it 2nd nature. which helps save energy for reading and adjusting to the texture. sometimes youll have it down so quick that when your first to act, your cards will hit the muck before the last card(s) is dealt preflop.

i actually have a selection like this that i still use, when i first get into a game. and if the table suddenly goes 'out of character' ill revert back to it until i get the feel back in the session to where the table is going...

as the other guy said, after awile, your not thinking specific hands, but types of hands for the situations being presented...

b

[SlyR]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
I want to raise more but I am out so much!

I have gone from $100 to $40 over the course of 8 2-hour sessions, i.e. $60 loss over 8 sessions. It is not like I am playing mistake free poker, but there are whole sessions where I don't seem to make any obvious blunders.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your losses are nothing to be concerned about. 16 hours of play amounts to nothing in the long run. When you've played over 100 total hours start being concerned, but you still won't have a decent statistical sampling. It's not uncommon for someone to swing over 60 dollars in either direction in a .5 to 1 game in
one session. Just keep playing your best, keep studying, and forget the short-term (and I mean SHORT - 16 hours is nothing) results.

[strategem]

hi majorkong

Hmmm.. I tried to post a reply to you but it seems that I messed up the posting procedure. Anyway, I surely hope that these players _are_ simply losers who are having a winning week. I will have the chance to track them over time so I hope to know more as time goes by. I'm glad you think playing with stronger players is a good idea... it's funny, I am a musician, and we always tell younger musicians that they should be happy to be the worst player in whatever group they are playing in. That's when you learn the most Of course, the analogy isn't perfect because of the different style of play required in different poker games. All you need to apply this to Hold-Em is the cash, I guess.

A very quick comment on a separate thread - one which addresses the issue of rude or impatient responses to beginner posts. Being a 'nice guy', and not too hard edged, I appreciate posts which are nice and polite. Just wanted to let everyone know that the response here has been amazing - I never thought I would get so many quality responses. I for one don't mind being told I am not on the right track or making mistakes or just wrong - that's the point of asking, after all. I am hoping that I can continue to post my questions here - what I can do in return, I don't know. Nik

[strategem]

Hi SlyR

Thanks - it's nice to hear that I'm not at the bottom of the barrel. Again, I see the other fish come and go so quickly, burning through $20-40 in a matter of 1 hour, so I know I'm not the worst fish out there.

The responses from this thread have made me take a really close look at my play - and I can see that there are a lot of areas I need to improve on before I can reasonably expect to become even a break -even player. Can't wait to get to a brick and mortar casino - unfortunately my choices here in Canada are somewhat limited. Thanks again for the comments. Nik