Superbowl - Which play has higher EV

[Clarkmeister]

Laying -155 on Oak and taking +161 on TB

or

Laying -155 on Oak and taking TB +4@-105

Obviously choice #1 has lower variance. I'm asking for long term EV.

[mikelow]

option one--you can't lose

Option two--you're trying for a "middle." It depends on the chances that the Raiders will win by less than four points.
Now the second option has more EV, but how many chances will you get in the long run?

[Clarkmeister]

"Now the second option has more EV, but how many chances will you get in the long run? "

Where I can lay 155 and take 4 at 05? Pretty close to zero other chances.