Irie's Bane

[Scuba Chuck]

From Irie: "I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive."

Although I think it's very possible to have a positive ROI at the $5s (especially if he single tables) while covering his hole cards, the problem is that it is very -EV. The primiary factor is time & money. I'm sure your $/hr will not be significant playing the $5s, and the additional $300 you make won't make up the difference. The only thing that makes this feat +EV is to open up the pool of money to which he'll take bets. I'd think up to $2k might make this a +EV move for him.

Good luck at the tables
Scuba

[OrcaDK]

Your effective gainEV is a combination of $EV/hour and (fun/interesting)EV/hour. I believe the funEV of this experiment i very high, giving a positive gainEV overall.

Why oh why does everything have to be measured in $EV/hour? Where did the fun go?

[Luminous Mist]

Good thing you posted this because I'm pretty sure Irie (or anyone else) wasn't aware of this aspect of his quest.

Great catch!!!

Luminous

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Although I think it's very possible to have a positive ROI at the $5s (especially if he single tables) while covering his hole cards, the problem is that it is very -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to think it's a near lock that he can do this. I'm highly skeptical. 20% rake, not seeing your cards and being up against opponents who probably call too much are pretty massive hurdles to climb over. One can argue that it's not really necessary to see your cards to play at the bubble, but heads-up will suck almost always, and you'll never get any chances to utilize good hands before the bubble, so you're likely to arrive there without much more than you can steal along the way. This last bit will generally be a non-trivial sum, but I think this is going to be very, very hard to do, overall. It's definitely interesting, though.

[skipperbob]

You guys don't get it!!!! /images/graemlins/blush.gif
This is a $300 advertisement: He knew that Raptor would rise to the bait; the next bet will be $50 large, Raptor's pea-sized brain won't correctly compute the odds = BahBye /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
being up against opponents who probably call too much

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to fail to reailze this is precisely the reason why this is profitable.

And finally, no one seems to get my dry humor. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
being up against opponents who probably call too much

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to fail to reailze this is precisely the reason why this is profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you profit when you're pushing any two on the bubble and your opponent calls you with Q5?

Just because calling too much is a mistake doesn't mean that you're the beneficiary of the mistake. It's not like this is the good kind of calling too much where they're calling in situations where you have wildly the best of it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
being up against opponents who probably call too much

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to fail to reailze this is precisely the reason why this is profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you profit when you're pushing any two on the bubble and your opponent calls you with Q5?

Just because calling too much is a mistake doesn't mean that you're the beneficiary of the mistake. It's not like this is the good kind of calling too much where they're calling in situations where you have wildly the best of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm, it's obvious you don't get the solution to this quandry. Poker is about all the decisions you make. Some decisions require action, some do not.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm, it's obvious you don't get the solution to this quandry. Poker is about all the decisions you make. Some decisions require action, some do not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding your way into the money doesn't seem like a viable strategy to me, so you're right, I didn't even consider it. The finish distribution you'd get in this fashion would be weighted heavily enough toward 3rd that you'd need a killer ITM which I don't think you'd get to make it happen.

[microbet]

I think you're right. I had tried this in play money as an experiment and you do easily win by folding ITM (2nd places too) by not playing a single hand.

This morning I tried it out in a $6 and it didn't seem like it would work out often enough.

[Blarg]

You still have to steal. And folding into the money will give you almost entirely third places, which won't cover your costs.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're right. I had tried this in play money as an experiment and you do easily win by folding ITM (2nd places too) by not playing a single hand.

This morning I tried it out in a $6 and it didn't seem like it would work out often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on you guys. This coin flips both ways. You are right, you likely cannot fold your way ITM in real money games often enough to make a +ROI. But there is still this thing called FE, and winning coinflips, and luck. All of these will factor into a game where there are many people who will call incorrectly. Just because Irie (or anyone) may push a random hand like 93o, doesn't mean there aren't morons out there who aren't calling with 22 or A2. There is enough probability for this to be a +ROI experience. Further, my point about single tabling is valid. Hero can likely find one or two tight players to exploit.

Anyway, I'm done proving my point. I think even I could do this with a +ROI, but it's not worth my time (and I'm serious now).

Scuba

[Blarg]

*bok bok bok bok* /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Just because Irie (or anyone) may push a random hand like 93o, doesn't mean there aren't morons out there who aren't calling with 22 or A2. There is enough probability for this to be a +ROI experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your double negative confuses me. Are you saying they're morons for calling with those hands, or not calling with those hands? Absent any kind of context, I have to assume that you're calling them morons for calling. If this is the case, this is horrible for Irie. If I'm pushing with any two, it's going to be an incredibly rare situation where I want to be called. People who call too much when Irie is pushing with junk is a big problem, because it takes equity from both Irie and the caller and sprays it around the field.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just because Irie (or anyone) may push a random hand like 93o, doesn't mean there aren't morons out there who aren't calling with 22 or A2. There is enough probability for this to be a +ROI experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your double negative confuses me. Are you saying they're morons for calling with those hands, or not calling with those hands? Absent any kind of context, I have to assume that you're calling them morons for calling. If this is the case, this is horrible for Irie. If I'm pushing with any two, it's going to be an incredibly rare situation where I want to be called. People who call too much when Irie is pushing with junk is a big problem, because it takes equity from both Irie and the caller and sprays it around the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you caught me in a incorrectly used double negative. But I feel bad for you that you cannot follow the post following that. In brief, you're applying too much theory (and subsequently knowledge) to a game that has neither.

[gumpzilla]

You've been sufficiently condescending in the face of some nonsensical statements (you're seriously claiming that Irie pushing with any two and routinely getting called with A2 is good for Irie?) that I think an appropriate FYP might be:

[ QUOTE ]
In brief, you're applying too much theory (and subsequently knowledge) to a discussion with a poster who is apparently incapable of comprehending either

[/ QUOTE ]

[KingDan]

Heads up will be easy... push every hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif
At 200/400 blinds with an even stack, the best you can do is 47%

There is a link explaining the math that I assume someone else will post.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Heads up will be easy... push every hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif
At 200/400 blinds with an even stack, the best you can do is 47%

[/ QUOTE ]

And how often will we be getting to heads up with an even stack without ever looking at our cards? I'm guessing it's pretty rarely.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You've been sufficiently condescending in the face of some nonsensical statements (you're seriously claiming that Irie pushing with any two and routinely getting called with A2 is good for Irie?) that I think an appropriate FYP might be:

[ QUOTE ]
In brief, you're applying too much theory (and subsequently knowledge) to a discussion with a poster who is apparently incapable of comprehending either

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm not trying to be tooo condecscending. If I was, you'd be able to tell. If your FYP is referring to you, then you have a good sense of humor. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif If it's referring to me, then so be it. I'm not going to argue FE with someone who already understands it, but is making rediculous insinuations that ALL PUSHES (especially pushes that will come from someone who is playing rediculously tight) are going to be called. There is still plenty of applicable math to this game. I'm sure there are plenty of situations where FE alone is enough to push, and situations where pushing any two will still apply.

Ugh. Let it go Gump. Apparently we'll have to agree to disagree.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Heads up will be easy... push every hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif
At 200/400 blinds with an even stack, the best you can do is 47%

[/ QUOTE ]

And how often will we be getting to heads up with an even stack without ever looking at our cards? I'm guessing it's pretty rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was referring to someone earlier who stated that heads up would not be easy to play. Though I agree the situation will come up often, the biggest problem in this will not be heads up play. He can push every hand and not be in too bad a shape.

FWIW I still don't think he will end up beating the rake, but I have never played the 6s so perhaps I do not comprehend how bad the players are.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to argue FE with someone who already understands it, but is making rediculous insinuations that ALL PUSHES

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that pushes will probably be called more often than they should be, which in general is bad for our hero since he's not in a position to exploit this, only suffer from it. Furthermore, I think that players across most buy-ins are much much better at noticing a player who plays too loose than they are one who plays too tight. Virtually nobody playing the 5s will notice that he's super-tight early, assuming he is.

[ QUOTE ]
There is still plenty of applicable math to this game. I'm sure there are plenty of situations where FE alone is enough to push, and situations where pushing any two will still apply.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but then again, I'm also not the one claiming that I'm bringing too much theory to the table. Your point that there will still be a couple of tight players to exploit is a good one, but I'm not sure that having them around will be good enough, and a $5 player's conception of tight might vary substantially from yours.

[ QUOTE ]

Ugh. Let it go Gump. Apparently we'll have to agree to disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine, I'll make this my last post in response to you on this topic. Sorry for the cheap shot in the previous post, but I found your tone rather insulting.

[lastchance]

It will be very hard to get to 200/400 blinds HU I think.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that pushes will probably be called more often than they should be, which in general is bad for our hero since he's not in a position to exploit this, only suffer from it. Furthermore, I think that players across most buy-ins are much much better at noticing a player who plays too loose than they are one who plays too tight. Virtually nobody playing the 5s will notice that he's super-tight early, assuming he is.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's something to be said for this. If people want to play, they want to play. They don't care if you're tight; they may not even notice. After all, there's no better way to be invisible than never play a hand, at least to someone who isn't paying much attention or doesn't understand the game well.

Loose players definitely stand out more, even at low level games, and being a tight player doesn't significantly increase your fold equity -- not against all players, but against the average player at this level.

The goals of the average player at this level include:

He wants to play his hand, just to see what happens
He wants to have some fun doing it sometimes -- big surprises are a huge plus. Like, making a draw, or hitting an ace, or sucking out.
He doesn't want to be bullied -- not by the likes of you anyway
He wants to feel clever and "make a move" once in a while.
He wants to win, but not at the expensive of having fun
Sometimes he wants to punish people, and get aggression out
He might not mind a little mystical affirmation that he's favored by God or something -- you know, the kind of guy who can buck the odds and still come out on top

None of these are marks of someone who is happy folding for long. You're going to see a lot of calls, and your fold equity is going to be very small regardless of how tight your table image is. Your hands are going to have to get lucky and/or have showdown value already, because you'll be seeing all seven cards pretty frequently.

[SuitedSixes]

I have a feeling he will be playing more flops than any of us think he will.

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I think it's very possible to have a positive ROI at the $5s (especially if he single tables) while covering his hole cards

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure. I said this in the original thread and I'll say it here:

There is no blind strategy that can beat the $6 SNGs on party right now (or any SNG level on Party). Just my opinion.

Regards
Brad S

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
It will be very hard to get to 200/400 blinds HU I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely forgot about the new 75/150 level.

[Irieguy]

Well, Suited... you are on to something. For example, I play almost all of my big blinds in levels 1-3.

***** Hand History for Game 2254270952 *****
NL Hold'em $5 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13358057 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, June 24, 01:16:47 EDT 2005
Table Table 12129 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: hopeforluck1 ( $1275 )
Seat 2: holmesdr ( $670 )
Seat 3: Irie ( $800 )
Seat 4: brwn181 ( $800 )
Seat 5: corik22 ( $800 )
Seat 6: JonDoh ( $800 )
Seat 7: ozmoria ( $800 )
Seat 9: aliasfan99 ( $1415 )
Seat 10: astrops ( $640 )
Trny:13358057 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irie [ Kc 9h ]
brwn181 folds.
corik22 folds.
JonDoh folds.
ozmoria folds.
aliasfan99 folds.
astrops folds.
hopeforluck1 calls [15].
holmesdr calls [5].
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Irie checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, Jd, Jh ]
holmesdr checks.
Irie bets [20].
hopeforluck1 calls [20].
holmesdr folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qs ]
Irie checks.
hopeforluck1 bets [15].
Irie raises [75].
hopeforluck1 calls [60].
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
Irie bets [175].
hopeforluck1 folds.
Irie does not show cards.
Irie wins 410 chips

[Blarg]

LOL, shame on you for doing that to his nice ace!

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, Suited... you are on to something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you surprised?

[Blarg]

***** Hand History for Game 2254535839 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13359256 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Friday, June 24, 02:09:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 11479 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: VApaintball ( $660 )
Seat 3: aznkidcom ( $1865 )
Seat 4: hobodave ( $825 )
Seat 5: newdrew2004 ( $1130 )
Seat 6: FJXELA ( $700 )
Seat 7: luckswitme ( $515 )
Seat 8: cynlk2 ( $775 )
Seat 10: sitpretty ( $760 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $770 )
Trny:13359256 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5c 9c ]
aznkidcom calls [30].
hobodave calls [30].
newdrew2004 calls [30].
FJXELA folds.
luckswitme is all-In [515]
cynlk2 folds.
sitpretty folds.
VApaintball folds.
Hero folds.
aznkidcom calls [485].
hobodave folds.
newdrew2004 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, Kd, Jc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
aznkidcom shows [ 5d, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
luckswitme shows [ 8c, As ] high card ace.
aznkidcom wins 1135 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.
luckswitme finished in ninth place.
luckswitme has left the table.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 2254535839 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13359256 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Friday, June 24, 02:09:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 11479 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: VApaintball ( $660 )
Seat 3: aznkidcom ( $1865 )
Seat 4: hobodave ( $825 )
Seat 5: newdrew2004 ( $1130 )
Seat 6: FJXELA ( $700 )
Seat 7: luckswitme ( $515 )
Seat 8: cynlk2 ( $775 )
Seat 10: sitpretty ( $760 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $770 )
Trny:13359256 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5c 9c ]
aznkidcom calls [30].
hobodave calls [30].
newdrew2004 calls [30].
FJXELA folds.
luckswitme is all-In [515]
cynlk2 folds.
sitpretty folds.
VApaintball folds.
Hero folds.
aznkidcom calls [485].
hobodave folds.
newdrew2004 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, Kd, Jc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
aznkidcom shows [ 5d, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
luckswitme shows [ 8c, As ] high card ace.
aznkidcom wins 1135 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.
luckswitme finished in ninth place.
luckswitme has left the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently, LucksNOTwitme!

[Blarg]

Yeah, his name rubbed in his fate a bit.

I thought that despite the big stack size of the guy who called with a horrible hand, this hand illustrated pretty well how happy people are to call with most most anything in the low levels. In this case, someone not only calls with absolute garbage even UTG, but when someone makes a 17 BB raise, calls with it.

This wasn't the last play like this by this fellow, btw. He played and called almost every hand, and had 3600 chips at or before level 3, as I recall.

All of which goes to illustrate my earlier point -- people LOVE to call at these levels. You're going to see all seven cards a lot when you push.

[stupidsucker]

you are all putting way to much emphasis on the cards.

I can't be sure about the 6s, but I am damn near positive this is doable at the 11s.

When it comes time to steal you will almost be right to push with any two anyways. Sure people will call to often, but they will be calling each other too often as well.

100 games is such a tiny sample size that honestly think anything could happen.