View Full Version : Shifting momentum--Hand vs. The Metetron
15/30 at The Wynn
The Metetron is the BB
I am in the SB with A2o
Preflop:
Loose MP open limps, also loose LP limps, I complete, Metetron checks
Flop: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I check, Metetron bets, MP folds, LP folds, I call
Turn: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
I bet, Metetron calls
River: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif
I...
Give me your plan for all scenarios (e.g. If you bet, what do you do when you're raised?)
The flop check/call and the turn SNG is weird. I don't really know what to make of that, except that you think BB is just betting to try and pick up the pot (or semibluffing), and thus you bet the turn because he'd probably check through and hand that he would call with.
I would just bet the river -- I don't think you'll induce a weaker hand to bet here unless he has an A, which is unlikely since I think he would have popped the turn, and he might just have a pair of 7s or something. I'd also 3bet if he raised.
Pretty generic analysis. =/
DeuceKicker
06-23-2005, 08:28 PM
I'd bet the flop. Your kicker obviously sucks, but I think if you're going to call you should bet out. My plan would be to bet the turn and check/call the river, most likely. I think check/calling the flop just puts you on your heels.
The 2 has got to be the best card you could hope to see on the river. In the heat of the moment, I'd probably bet/call the river. Check-raising wouldn't be bad, either, as I'd rather play this hand for 3 bets than 4.
Edit: I say the 2 is the best card based on the assumption that you're up against Ax. Obviously if he has a higher 2pr, set, or straight, this is bad, but at this point I don't see a reason to assume one of those holdings.
The Goober
06-23-2005, 09:35 PM
I don't play this high, but I take a shot...
I like a check-call on the river.
I'm thinking you checked the flop to see how the loose players liked it, since they could have lots of weak As here. When they both fold, you figure your A is probably good. You bet the turn because BB (who I'm assuming is a good player) is likely on a draw and you don't want to give a free card. When he just calls, it seems likely that he is in fact drawing, or maybe is sandbagging a monster. I don't see him having something like a 7 here, because I think he'd probably raise the turn with it, hoping for a free showdown.
So, I figure on the river he's not likely to call with a hand you beat, and there's a small chance that he'll bluff at it with a busted draw.
nolanfan34
06-23-2005, 09:40 PM
Check, with the intention of raising.
I think there are two scenarios here.
One, he bet the flop with two diamonds, or a random straight draw. That would also explain his turn call. Give him a chance to bluff at the river.
Or, the other option is that he has a weak Ace like you do. In this case, he's likely to value bet. Same with middle pair.
I just don't see him checking behind with anything that he's going to call a bet with anyway.
nolanfan34
06-23-2005, 09:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
So, I figure on the river he's not likely to call with a hand you beat, and there's a small chance that he'll bluff at it with a busted draw.
[/ QUOTE ]
I forgot to say that in the first scenario, he's not going to call a check raise. But then you don't have to show either, and I think there's merit in that.
sthief09
06-23-2005, 09:54 PM
bet the flop. your flop-turn play seems pretty dumb to me. I don't really know what you're trying to tell him
nolanfan34
06-23-2005, 10:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop. your flop-turn play seems pretty dumb to me. I don't really know what you're trying to tell him
[/ QUOTE ]
Given the fact that loose players love to limp with Ax, don't you think maybe Evan was going to C/R, and then decided not to bother once the other two dropped? His turn bet is then pretty confusing.
I'd think the Meteron would expect him to check-raise with an Ace, so the SNG might disguise that a bit.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop. your flop-turn play seems pretty dumb to me. I don't really know what you're trying to tell him
[/ QUOTE ]
Given the fact that loose players love to limp with Ax, don't you think maybe Evan was going to C/R, and then decided not to bother once the other two dropped? His turn bet is then pretty confusing.
I'd think the Meteron would expect him to check-raise with an Ace, so the SNG might disguise that a bit.
[/ QUOTE ]
i had a wholly different interpretation of the turn bet; isn't the standard protocol for A-weak OOP; check/call, check/call, bet?
Metetron knows this line as well; if Evan check-called the flop, then checks the turn, if Metetron doesn't have an A, he can easily check-behind and fold a river bet UI.
the SnG is confusing, you don't know what he's got at that point. Evan knows that Metetron has position and will likely call down with any non-A piece of this board, b/c surely an A does not play this way.
i bet/call this river. a set or straight from Metetron is not likely, but not impossible. Metetron may also semi-bluff raise this river if he feels he can't win a showdown...
BWebb
06-24-2005, 12:22 AM
At first, I was thinking check-raise. But the check-call, bet line might have Metetron a)very confused or b)smelling a rat, that he might check behind. I think I just bet and call if raised. 3-betting the river is no good because he's not calling with a hand you beat, IMO.
PokerBob
06-24-2005, 12:59 AM
I am betting the river.
cnfuzzd
06-24-2005, 01:06 AM
check with the hope of raising.
betting on the river will never get a worse hand to call, since metetron would have raised an big ace on the turn. Even if he "slowplayed" something like A8, by checking, you are much more likely to get him to put in a bet here than if you bet. Additionally, a hand like 8d6d or even AT is much more likely to bet and call a c/r than to raise or even call a river bet
The only problem i can really see with this line is the fact that you occasionally get 3bet, but you can auto-muck there comfrotably like 100% of the time.
I am not really a fan of your turn play. I understand flat calling the flop bet once the other donks fold out, but the lead on this street is somewhat silly, especially since it virtually kills any river action you might get, even if you dont improve. I understand not wanting to give a free card, but if you think he is on a draw here a significant portion of the time, you should be putting more bets in on the flop...
im usually wrong in these situations though, so feel free to correct...
peace
john nickle
I certainly don't like checking here. I think being a strong player, he will check behind the river, since you bet out the turn, even if he has a piece of the board.
Some of the responses here are leaving me really confused. Many of you seem to be worried about me 'killing my action' while others seem to think that I'm only getting action from a better hand when I bet the river.
I feel like you're all overlooking the crux of this hand--I am out of position with a moderate hand against a strong, thinking player that knows who I am. So to those of you that want to do things like check raise the turn or get lots of action on later streets, I am having a lot of trouble understanding where you're coming from. This is not a typical top pair hand against an unknown on Party, so I think it's a major mistake to evaluate it as such.
The Goober
06-24-2005, 02:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Some of the responses here are leaving me really confused. Many of you seem to be worried about me 'killing my action' while others seem to think that I'm only getting action from a better hand when I bet the river.
[/ QUOTE ]
FWIW I missed that you made 2 pair on the river (2/images/graemlins/club.gif is often shorthand for "blank" in my mind), hence the weird "no worse hand will call" advice. I now think betting might be better. He had something to call the turn with, and now there are lots more worse hands he could be calling down with (like a weak A of his own, or a small 2 pair) and that probably outwieghs the combined chance that he was on a draw and will bluff at it.
nolanfan34
06-24-2005, 02:18 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like you're all overlooking the crux of this hand--I am out of position with a moderate hand against a strong, thinking player that knows who I am.
[/ QUOTE ]
Well, to me, the crux of the river is this - you have to see a showdown. Now, I still think a check-raise is best against his range of possible hands. Mostly because I think he's going to make a bet at the river with middle pair, more often than he's going to fold something if you bet out. That might be close.
If you're really that concerned about being beat, then betting and calling a raise is probably best. In that case, the only hand I can see is maybe 77 or 55, or more specifically, 97s or 97o which he chose to not raise on the turn, fearing a fold from you. You beat the latter hands, but 3-betting and getting 4-bet by a set would suck.
I just think you need to get a bet from him on this river, and checking will best allow that to happen.
I'd be more interested to hear why you bet out the turn.
Scott, I think your analysis here has been great. I'm not really worried about being beat, but i am also not particularly excited about putting in lots of bets after check raising the turn.
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be more interested to hear why you bet out the turn.
[/ QUOTE ]
Put yourself in his position and then put me on a range of hands. When I did this during the hand it seemed apparent that if I checked he was going to end up playing exactly the way i didn't want him to (checking with worse hands/hands that wanted free cards that would call bets and betting strong hands that had me in very bad shape).
SpaceAce
06-24-2005, 05:57 AM
I like the flop check, I like the turn bet, I bet this river and pay off a raise.
SpaceAce
Justin A
06-24-2005, 06:17 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop check, I like the turn bet, I bet this river and pay off a raise.
SpaceAce
[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. Bet and call a raise seems best on this river. Especially since there are hands that your opponent is just trying to get to showdown with that he'll call with but won't bet with.
Sometimes I bet this flop and sometimes I don't. If I'm in the BB with your hand and it's checked to me I'll bet it almost everytime, because I will be betting a ton of hands in that situation, so I need to be betting my top pair hands also.
admiralfluff
06-24-2005, 06:23 AM
I don't see how you can get metetron in for 2 bets on the river with a hand you beat. He's folding a worse hand very often to a bet, and often to a c/r. I don't know enough about metetron, or you, or what he knows about you to know if it would be correct for you to pay off a river raise. From what I know, which is basically nothing, I either c/c or c/r, leaning towards c/r.
If metetron folds to your river c/r too often for it to be profitable, I c/c and c/r bluff him on the river at the next prudent opportuninty.
Schneids
06-24-2005, 06:57 AM
I bet 3-bet the river. I think the flop and turn are played perfectly. Specifically the turn.
Expanding:
Flop - With that many limpers you should almost never bet this into them. It's best to check and see what happens.
Turn - Once it's down to HU on the turn, you cannot let a flush draw check behind or a low pair check behind (fearing a c/r semibluff or c/r for value). So, betting makes the most sense.
River - Ok, this isn't against a party fish who will automatically bet when checked to with his busted draw or bottom pair. Your best play is to bet the river since I think you betting the turn and then checking the river looks like you've REALLY been probing to try to get 2 big bets outta him on a street. I favor betting to get called by all those pairs that wanna look you up (ESPECIALLY because of the knowing eachother factor and the ego that will takeover and metetron not wanting to get bluffed out by Evan and then having to read about it later on 2p2) since I expect a lot of Metetron's showdownable hands will get checked through on the river. Plus, there's times when Metetron has a smaller two pair he's been slow playing and raises, so you 3 bet. Or if he raises an OK ace while getting fancy, or, if he raises on a total bluff. I just think all the good reasons for betting the river offset trying for a check raise. And no I'm not afraid of a higher two pair or set even though yes it does occasionally happen... I am betting to 3 bet.
thejameser
06-24-2005, 09:55 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I am betting the river.
[/ QUOTE ]
BWebb
06-24-2005, 11:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
River - Ok, this isn't against a party fish who will automatically bet when checked to with his busted draw or bottom pair. Your best play is to bet the river since I think you betting the turn and then checking the river looks like you've REALLY been probing to try to get 2 big bets outta him on a street. I favor betting to get called by all those pairs that wanna look you up (ESPECIALLY because of the knowing eachother factor and the ego that will takeover and metetron not wanting to get bluffed out by Evan and then having to read about it later on 2p2) since I expect a lot of Metetron's showdownable hands will get checked through on the river. Plus, there's times when Metetron has a smaller two pair he's been slow playing and raises, so you 3 bet. Or if he raises an OK ace while getting fancy, or, if he raises on a total bluff. I just think all the good reasons for betting the river offset trying for a check raise. And no I'm not afraid of a higher two pair or set even though yes it does occasionally happen... I am betting to 3 bet.
[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with all of this except for a 3-bet. I don't know Metetron's game, but since he's known 2p2 I figure he's very good. I don't see him calling a 3-bet with a worse hand. MAYBE a worse two pair, but I think he could drop that to a river 3-bet. I think he folds anything else that is beat, so I see a river 3-bet as -EV.
nolanfan34
06-24-2005, 02:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]
River - Ok, this isn't against a party fish who will automatically bet when checked to with his busted draw or bottom pair. Your best play is to bet the river since I think you betting the turn and then checking the river looks like you've REALLY been probing to try to get 2 big bets outta him on a street. I favor betting to get called by all those pairs that wanna look you up (ESPECIALLY because of the knowing eachother factor and the ego that will takeover and metetron not wanting to get bluffed out by Evan and then having to read about it later on 2p2) since I expect a lot of Metetron's showdownable hands will get checked through on the river. Plus, there's times when Metetron has a smaller two pair he's been slow playing and raises, so you 3 bet. Or if he raises an OK ace while getting fancy, or, if he raises on a total bluff. I just think all the good reasons for betting the river offset trying for a check raise. And no I'm not afraid of a higher two pair or set even though yes it does occasionally happen... I am betting to 3 bet.
[/ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it, the more I believe this is probably the best line. Against an aggressive unknown, I think going for the check-raise is still a good play, but against someone who knows you, the turn bet and river check is just going to smell fishy, like Schneids said.
And you'd really hate to see him check through a 7 that he would have called a bet with.
One last advantage is if you bet and get raised, you have the ability to close the action if you pick up some vibe that maybe he did get tricky with a set.
Now, the results-oriented fish like myself want to know, what happened?
[ QUOTE ]
Now, the results-oriented fish like myself want to know, what happened?
[/ QUOTE ]
I bet and he folded. I asked if he had diamonds, he said affirmed my suspicions.
Brunger
06-24-2005, 03:06 PM
I like a bet-call and think that the hand was played perfectly. My question is what is your line on the river without improvement.
[ QUOTE ]
what is your line on the river without improvement.
[/ QUOTE ]
Bet. I actually didn't realize I had made 2 pair until I let the chips go.
Brunger
06-24-2005, 03:15 PM
With the intention of folding to or calling a raise. As a side bar how often do you think the metetron bluffs the river or calls with a middling pair or God forbid checks another weak ace. I have been check calling a lot in situations like this on the river even after betting the turn against better players but wonder if it is a mistake.
vBulletin® v3.8.11, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.