I still don't get this at all. Please help me understand:

[AdamL]

Preamble:

The theory is that you might give up a raise preflop to keep the pot small in order to win sklansky bucks (make your opponent play incorrectly) post-flop.

The fundamantal theorem of poker is that you win money when your opponents make mistakes. (in short.)

But it seems to me, frequently, that the mistakes the opponents make by calling raises with less total hand equity preflop outweigh any mistakes they might make after the flop.

I'm not even sure when exactly not raising preflop is correct. I have no idea how to implement this into my game. If I'm heads up, I'm often raising for any fold equity I might have. If there are multiple opponents, I'm often raising because of my hand equity standing to be better than my contribution to the pot. So whether I'm heads up or playing a field, I am raising preflop.

So that's where I'm coming from.

Now here's the main question:


I'd like it if someone could show me the math of when your equity edge might be small enough preflop to draw the line and say, "I'm not raising." I would like to see exactly how keeping the pot small when I have only a slight edge preflop actually makes me money.

I can't do it. I'm a nit. Whenever I try, I see myself coming out on top raising even the smallest edge. Because in the end, that's money in my pocket.

The only time I've been able to find NOT raising preflop and trying to wait for the flop to act, is when I don't have any kind of equity edge.

Please help this slackjawed yokal understand!

PS -- I will say, I understand the value of deception. Getting a guy to call down with top pair garbage kicker vs your top pair good kicker makes sense.

It's those "keep the pot small so he doesn't have the correct odds to chase" scenarios that baffle me entirely.

Put it this way: If he has a 35% chance of drawing out on me, I don't want the pot small. I want it to be as huge as possible -- infinitely large, theoretically, and I don't care too much if he has odds.

[etizzle]

people that don't raise preflop because they dont want people to have odds are bad poker players.

95% of the time it is correct to push any edge before the flop.

That said, a typical hand where it is not correct to raise a small edge preflop would be with AJo or KQo on the button after many limpers. You likely have the best hand, but not so large an edge that it is worth raising preflop. Just limping will probably allow you to face much of the field with two bets cold if you flop top pair or better, and you will be better able to protect your hand.

It is never worth not raising preflop when you have a large edge. Never.

[AaronBrown]

If you raise preflop, you increase your chance of winning the pot, because some or all of your opponents may fold. On the other hand, you decrease your winnings when you win and increase your loss when you lose. If you win, there will be fewer people in the pot and they're less likely to bet aggressively because you have shown strength. If you lose, you will have put in more money by raising, and you're facing hands that want to be in the pot against a raiser. So you have to calculate which effect dominates.

With weak or moderate hands, you normally fold, but if you don't you must of course raise. The extra likelihood of winning dominates, because your chance of winning a showdown is small.

With the strongest hands you only raise for deception. The probability of winning is high, especially against the hands likely to fold, making it higher doesn't help much. You really care about getting more money when you do win.

In between, high cards and pairs tend to play best against few opponents, so you benefit by raising. Drawing hands play best against many opponent, so you don't. However, you should reverse these rules often enough that people can't guess what you have.

After the flop the same general principles apply, except it's not so clear that raising reduces your ultimate pot. That depends on the situation and your opponents.

Another general principle is to raise if the next card will give more information to your opponent, call if it will give more information to you. If you think your opponent is going for the flush, and you already have a high pair with no overcards, make him pay to see the card. Reverse the situation and you want to see the card free.