TT vs scary board, his POV

[MrStretchie]

10/20 on Party, 6 handed (sorry, don't have the hand history here)

Villian is in CO with TT.
He sees UTG as a very loose fish, and MP (Hero) as relatively new to the table, probably solid.

He raises preflop, both blinds, UTG and MP call.
Flop:
4,5,9 rainbow
BB bets, UTG,MP call, he raises, all call
Turn: 2 (2-flush)
Checked, he bets, BB folds, UTG and MP call.
River: 6 (3-flush)
UTG bets, MP Raises

What's his play?

[Nate tha' Great]

Fold.

[MrStretchie]

That's what I figured.. now what if he'd noticed that UTG (the fish) has bluffed two rivers with missed weak draws/crap in the last 10 or so hands?

[MrStretchie]

Was hoping for more replies first, but I guess I'll put the rest of it out there and hope it gets me something. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

As you may have guessed, I managed to bluff-raise him off the winner on the river, and took the pot when my missed-straight draw, made-pair of 6's beat the SB's crap.

Basically, I'm trying to figure out how this situation occurs where I raise and he folds the winner on the river, without either of us having made a mistake. I was about 50% sure I could raise him off here, and figured I had around a 40% chance of beating the SB, so I think the raise was good.

The only conclusion I can come to is that if he'd seen the same chances that the SB was bluffing, and given me credit for seeing it too (hard after 10 hands) he should've called. ? Or did he still make the right play, but got really unlucky?