Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..

[raptor517]

ok, so last time, in that AJ post, i talked about folding on the bubble with AJs to a pusher who you KNOW is shoving a lot of hands. this guy is a solid player, and has been playing a very good bubble.. likely shoving a LOT of hands in this spot. so.. with that in mind.. heres the hand /images/graemlins/wink.gif

#Game No : 2251304150
***** Hand History for Game 2251304150 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13340584 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, June 23, 14:34:35 EDT 2005
Table Table 12343 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: kb_33 ( $1360 )
Seat 5: cgcaughran ( $815 )
Seat 7: IHateUBaller ( $6100 )
Seat 2: Itachi86 ( $1725 )
Trny:13340584 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Itachi86 [ Ah Qs ]
IHateUBaller raises [1100].
kb_33 folds.
IHateUBaller: oops
IHateUBaller: meant to shove
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Itachi86 will be using his time bank for this hand.
Itachi86 ????????

holla

[microbet]

His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 and then saying "Oops, meant to shove"?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 and then saying "Oops, meant to shove"?

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually dont think that meant anything. i do that sometimes, the slider doesnt go all the way.. etc. ignore that, lol. holla

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 and then saying "Oops, meant to shove"?

[/ QUOTE ]

His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 UTG against a BB that's likely pot committed?

[microbet]

Ok, Fold it. Terrible call. I reserve the right to run ICM and change my mind.

I sometimes don't slide all the way when I meant to, but I never chat about it.

edit: Ok, ICM HATES calling here.

[gumpzilla]

Pretty broad here, I'm guessing. Even if he doubles up the shorty, he's still way ahead of three roughly even short stacks and should still be able to exert himself quite easily.

EDIT: I voted call, though I haven't run any math on it. I think we're going to be at least 60% to win the pot, frequently more, and I think we stand to gain a fair amount of equity by doubling up in this instance, enough to make 60% a good enough frequency of winning. (EDIT AGAIN: If you took about 1000 from big stack and gave it to me, I probably fold instead.)

[pokerlaw]

I voted fold. Let the shortie who is sittin in the BB behind you call...

[schilling38]

seems like an easy call to me. Blinds are big enough and you could probably wait the shortie out, but you just said the guy is pushing all the time, and likely has any 2 cards. Why not call as what is most likely a 60/40 if not more of a favorite? Aren't you playing for first place?

If I'm way off I'd like to understand why.

[Bigwig]

As 2nd chip stack, I fold.

[Unarmed]

Oh BTW if he's pushing any two you'd rather have AJs (or ATs) than AQo. You know that though so why am I posting this...

[Scuba Chuck]

I can't choose either one, although I lean towards calling because the fold option should say "fold, because ICM says so."

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

edit: Ok, ICM HATES calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range did you assume for the initial raiser?

[microbet]

Try any two.

[11t]

If the short stack had just doubled up I'd call this instantly but as it stands I pretend I didn't see my hand and let it go.

I'd prolly call with TT+ here though, I just think you are too short to let that go and TT should have his hand dominated a vast majority of the time.

[curtains]

I think it's clear fold...

[curtains]

Also this IHateUballer guy is an idiot, everytime I make some really obvious play against him and he has a good hand and I get lucky he starts cursing me out like a moron and telling me how stupid I am. Its happened a few times now on different accts of mine.

[gumpzilla]

I don't have Eastbay's tool, so that will take me a moment. In the meantime, another question: if he's pushing any two, are you assuming that 50% of the time BB will call and win, the other 50% of the time that BB will call and lose?

EDIT: Okay, it looks like you have ~34% equity when you call and win, and on average an equity of ~25% when you fold, assuming he's pushing with any two. In this situation, the numbers seem to suggest that it's a reasonably close fold. A tighter range increases your average equity when you fold, since SB is less likely to win, although the range has to tighten up pretty substantially to seriously diminish your winning chances. Nevertheless, since I think the range probably will be tighter than any two, this probably is a fold, according to ICM. That surprises me.

[schilling38]

[ QUOTE ]

I think it's clear fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

explain?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]

Also this IHateUballer guy is an idiot, everytime I make some really obvious play against him and he has a good hand and I get lucky he starts cursing me out like a moron and telling me how stupid I am. Its happened a few times now on different accts of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahaha, his aka is worldsgrtst. hes quite solid actually. but then again, what do i know about being solid. holla

[microbet]

I did it on Eastbay's Program and it doesn't allow for the BB to call. I don't think the BB will call anywhere near 50% of the time, if you call. He's gonna just hope you bust out. Given that he will have a very tight calling range, IMO, I don't think his calls are going to help you.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I did it on Eastbay's Program and it doesn't allow for the BB to call. I don't think the BB will call anywhere near 50% of the time, if you call. He's gonna just hope you bust out. Given that he will have a very tight calling range, IMO, I don't think his calls are going to help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I meant when you fold, when I think his call is near guaranteed. Then assuming the initial pusher pushes with any two, half the time SB busts, leaving you with ~29% ICM equity, and half the time the SB doubles up, leaving you with ~21% ICM equity. So on average you have about 25% when you fold.

[microbet]

If you really want to deeply analyze the hand you can go into this, but it's not really very close at all.

First off, UTG may very well not push with any two. He's pushing into the very small stack's BB and should know he is fairly likely to get called.

I think if Raptor holds AKs or TT-QQ it will be much more debatable.

[curtains]

Your hand just isnt good enough to call off all your chips on the bubble when both stacks are shorter than you and are desperate. I'm sure you aren't going to win the showdown the % of times you need to to make this call correct.

[tminus]

easy call for the following reasons:
- he's been pushing alot so i think there's a good chance that he's got a questionable hand
- AQo is premium shorthanded and I cant afford to wait around in hopes of a better hand than this while the shorties battle it out
- There's 1500 chips in the pot which will double me up
- His stack is triple mine and i want first..not second.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I think if Raptor holds AKs or TT-QQ it will be much more debatable.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT-QQ I understand, but what makes AKs so much better than AQs against a broad range of pushed hands? (And yes, I realize the hand in question is AQo, but you make it sound like it's not debatable with AQs.) If you say he'll push any K but not any Q, then I can see it, maybe.

[microbet]

When I voted and made my earlier replys I didn't realize that your M was 3.

[tminus]

alright...i admit it, i was trying to be cool and make you guys like me more

( i was actually the middle of editing it )

[microbet]

All right, you got me. AKs sucks arse too. I think the debate should really be over QQ, but some might debate JJ or even KK.

[lastchance]

I think QQ is a call, KK is a call.

JJ or TT/AKs are probably my cutoff.

[microbet]

I also think QQ is good. I would probably find JJ too hard to fold in real life, but I don't think it is good enough.

[eMarkM]

If I'm using SGA correctly, than pairs down to 99 are pretty clear calls against any two. 88 is very marginal, 77 and below clear folds. AKs, AK, A whatever, clear folds. If he has any live cards against these high card combos, it's not worth it.

[John Hurst]

I don't believe the short stack is small enough to justify a fold in this situation. Far too he will double up off the too loose big stack and you will be back to square 1. I call this hand because winning almost assures an ITM finish.

[microbet]

One of us is doing something a little bit wrong. I get TT+ for the +$EV calls if he has any two.

If he's on the maniac setting only KK+ is good.

I don't think he's necessarily on any two here, but there are other things to consider - like what happens if you fold and BB calls. So, at this point, I'm still down with QQ.

[curtains]

btw in case I wasnt clear I think this is an extremely clear fold and that calling is pretty much terrible.

[Dallara]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Also this IHateUballer guy is an idiot, everytime I make some really obvious play against him and he has a good hand and I get lucky he starts cursing me out like a moron and telling me how stupid I am. Its happened a few times now on different accts of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahaha, his aka is worldsgrtst. hes quite solid actually. but then again, what do i know about being solid. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, he's worldsgrtst? What a prick. I usually play the $22s, but I made it to a mini-step5 the other day. My seat was between worldsgrtst and sheetsowns. Anyway, I get shortstacked in maybe level 4 and worldsgrtst pushes from my SB. I call with TT, he turns over KK. After a T hits, he goes off on me for a few minutes about how bad a play I made (which is obviously nonsense). I still don't have that many chips and my next BB Sheets pushes from UTG. I call with 88, he shows A-J. He hits a Jack but I catch a four flush to win the hand. worldsgrtst spends another five minutes explaining how I am the luckiest mother f'er on the planet. Happily, I outlasted him and made a little cash for fourth.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an extremely clear fold and that calling is pretty much terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

btw in case I wasnt clear I think this is an extremely clear fold and that calling is pretty much terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright that was seriously funny. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Bigwig]

Glad to see a couple of specific posters who agree with me.

To those who still think you should call--your chip position is of extreme importance here.

[curtains]

Hows that seriously funny? Im confused

[eMarkM]

[ QUOTE ]
One of us is doing something a little bit wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, me. I had the positions mixed. Still getting similar results for pairs though when I have the settings at "*" for any two. For "M", I get QQ as a fold.

And I don't think it's implasusible for him to push any two or awfully close to it. If you reverse things and have the short stacks at [L]oose then it's only marignally bad to push 32o here for him.

[eMarkM]

I agree about the AQ in question. I was just trying to figure out what pairs you'd call with in this situation.

[eMarkM]

Playing with this in SGA. Clear fold as presented. -2.9% worse than folding. And this is assuming he's pushing any two ("*" in SGA). Very counter-intuitive, but it's all about chip positions. Here's how it shakes out if we mix stack sizes up a bit.

Original situation:
BB 815
SB 1725 (hero dealt AQo)
Btn 1360 (folds)
UTG 6100 (all-in, he raises lower in example, but all are PC anyway)

AQo = -2.9%

Very clear fold.

Small stacks equal
BB 1300
SB 1300
Btn 1300
UTG 6100

AQo = -0.2%

Closer, but still a fold!

You are small stack by a hair
BB 1350
SB 1250
Btn 1300
UTG 6100

AQo = +0.1%

Still very marginal to call.

You're the small stack by bigger margin
BB 1500
SB 1100
Btn 1300
UTG 6100

AQo = +1.0%

A call.

Someone please confirm my #s are ok.

[curtains]

I dunno, they sound about right. The AQo hand is just very obvious to anyone who's done any studying on these bubble situations. AQo is just not a good enough hand in this spot.

btw in this situation I think it's very clear that a lot of pairs are easy folds too because you wouldn't expect UTG to raise any 2 here. I think its fairly obvious that he's not going to raise with 74o when the shortstack is in the BB. You want the shortstack to be the button or the SB to do such things, thus UTG's range should not be nearly as loose as people are suggesting.

[eMarkM]

[ QUOTE ]

you wouldn't expect UTG to raise any 2 here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree in the specific situation, but I wanted to show how powerful having the big stick is in these situations and how liberal you can be when you have 60% of the chips and what you need to call even when you know he's pushing around with lesser quality cards.

[Freudian]

Villain has raised every hand and often all-in. I doubled up when I re-raised all in with KK and he called with A6.

Even bad players catch hands and have the board help them.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t4105)
Button (t1365)
SB (t1205)
Hero (t1325)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls [t1325] t50, UTG calls t1075.

Flop: (t2700) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t2700) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t2700) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t2700

Results in white below:
Hero has Ac Kd (high card, ace).
UTG has Js Jc (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: UTG wins t2700.

[Luminous Mist]

I hope you folded this...

Luminous

[curtains]

This is much much different because there is folding equity.

[Freudian]

Yes, and no real short stack.

[raptor517]

ok, for the record.. i did fold, and i thought it wasnt all that close. AKs i have a hard time folding, though i would still be tempted. JJ i would probably fold as well here. i dont think utg is pushing any 2, as he will get a call out of the BB a LOT of times and its not worth dumping 1k chips. put him at WORST on top 40% of hands. thats mho. QQ though i cant consider folding. just too strong of a hand, but AQo i have no problem laying down here. thought this would be an interesting hand to post up. hope yall learned something at all from the discussion, and i think there could still be a bit more left. holla