80/160 #4: AJs

[Nate tha' Great]

80/160 Bellagio again. An opponent whom I regarded at the time as somewhat loose-aggressive, especially before the flop, open-raises from UTG+2. I 3-bet with AJs in MP. Folded to the opponent who 4-bets, I call (5-bet cap here).

Flop is K-rag-rag rainbow with one of my suit, my opponent checks and I check behind.

Turn is an offsuit J, my opponent bets and I call.

River is a T, opponent bets and I fold.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Well played. I love the turn call, but I would expect to see a real hand here, based on his river bet (coupled with the PF 4 bet and the flop check). Only way you could have a better hand is if this fellow is bordering on maniac status.

TSP

[andyfox]

What's the rule in Vegas: is there no cap when the pot turns into a head-up battle?

Anybody like raising the turn?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody like raising the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's the main question here IMO. I've already asked two 2+2ers about this one privately and got two completely opposite responses.

[autobet]

I would usually raise the turn.

[tpir90036]

Raise the turn for a "free" showdown/fold to a 3-bet? The pre-lfop 4-bet and check the flop combo means trouble in my experience....but it might mean he totally missed as well, plus raising sounds like fun.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
80/160 Bellagio again. An opponent whom I regarded at the time as somewhat loose-aggressive, especially before the flop, open-raises from UTG+2. I 3-bet with AJs in MP. Folded to the opponent who 4-bets, I call (5-bet cap here).

Flop is K-rag-rag rainbow with one of my suit, my opponent checks and I check behind.

Turn is an offsuit J, my opponent bets and I call.

River is a T, opponent bets and I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nate I'm sorry but this is terrible. Whats most terrible is the river fold -- were you just hoping for one of your 6 outs on the river? Or were you hoping for either one of your 6 outs or that he'd check through? Would you have called the river if the river was a complete blank (eg. less than a T)? In either case, your call on the turn is unjustified if you planned to fold the river in these scenarios -- (you didn't have pot odds to just call).

The flop check is weak but probably OK.

I'd have bet the flop or raised the turn given your read and if I played it like you did until the river, I'd have called the river.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate I'm sorry but this is terrible. Whats most terrible is the river fold -- were you just hoping for one of your 6 outs on the river? Or were you hoping for either one of your 6 outs or that he'd check through? Would you have called the river if the river was a complete blank (eg. less than a T)? In either case, your call on the turn is unjustified if you planned to fold the river in these scenarios -- (you didn't have pot odds to just call).

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my initial reaction. But when you think about it, what hand on the river can Nate possibly beat? His opponent is aggressive, but he's probably not 4-betting PF very lightly. If you think of a range of AA-TT, AKs, AK, AQs, there's not a single hand there that Nate beats.

This doesn't mean that I know why Nate just called the turn. I don't like the turn call more for the reason that after checking through the flop, and not raising the turn, the chance of getting a free showdown seems to be about nil, IMO.

But I don't play 80-160.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Hi Andy:

Raising this turn is extraordinarily dangerous, IMO. You have someone who has shown significant strength PF. The check on the flop smells. My experience from a few weeks ago in the Bellag. 80-160 leads me to believe that villian has a monster.

For example, let's say I (personally) 4 bet pre-flop and checked when a K and two rags come on the flop. The only hand I would EVER, EVER check with here is AA, KK, or perhaps AK. If I had anything else, I would be betting to represent that I have AA, KK, or AK, to knock out everything up to QQ.

Simplistic reasoning? Perhaps. However, Nate missed his flop and now has something on the turn -- this doesnt look like villian's plan of letting Nate 'catch up' came together?

I can see the argument for calling the turn and paying off the river, but I can't see firing into what appears to me to be a very good hand, in all liklihood.

TSP

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
80/160 Bellagio again. An opponent whom I regarded at the time as somewhat loose-aggressive, especially before the flop, open-raises from UTG+2. I 3-bet with AJs in MP. Folded to the opponent who 4-bets, I call (5-bet cap here).

Flop is K-rag-rag rainbow with one of my suit, my opponent checks and I check behind.

Turn is an offsuit J, my opponent bets and I call.

River is a T, opponent bets and I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you played this hand against a player you describe as a LAG as if you were playing someone rather preditable. Given preflop was HU I think many players will 4 bet 99 of A10 suited. Flop check could mean a monster, could still be 99 that he is waiting to make a move on you with. Turn bet doesnt mean that much given the check through - 'wait, maybe i can bluff' bet.

I think raising the turn is the best play. But if you don't want to raise the turn you have to call the river. Of course if you think you can define his hand fairly tightly there are not many if any holdings you beat, but i think a LAG can have a wider holding here. Also, while a good player typically won't try the desperate river bet that can't possibly get a better hand to fold, an average player will - that is why I want to call the river.

To me turn call = river call, turn raise = more options depending on his reaction.

[tomahawk]

I think it's good.

The check-bet-bet line probably means your beat here often enough. I don't think the argument that you should have folded the turn if you were gonna fold the river is valid, because the river card and his follow through river bet does make it a lot more likely that you are beat.

would you call if the river was a total blank?

[DpR]

All legit points - but you are not a LAG - 'especially pre-flop' as Nate suggests.

[Turning Stone Pro]

IMO, Nate's play was to bet the flop. In this way, he stands a much better chance of finding out where he is.

Then, he can fold the turn if the flop is check-raised and villian leads on the turn. He can check the turn when the J comes, if villian merely check-calls the flop, since the only overcard that hurts him on the river is a Q.

I just think this is a less-expensive, more effective way of handling the hand, geared towards avoiding losing a lot of $ by finding out early if you are beat, and allowing one to get to the river, if villian's weakness allows him to do so.

TSP

TSP

[oreogod]

I dont think a flop bet is good at all IMO. Whenver I come across this situation, whether its a LAG or TAG, and they 4-bet and check the flop, more often than not, its a pretty big hand they are doing it with.

I think the turn call is better than raising. I think the possibility is small, but villian could check the river. Its possible, but not if he has a monster. But it would be just about the only reason I would call the turn bet, to possibily get a free showdown. When villian bets the river again, I think u can safely fold.

[elysium]

hi nate

you've got to call.

[andyfox]

The flop check is likely a big hand, granted. But it might also be pocket queens. And those Vegas types are more likely than most to bet a set of kings on the flop and check a pair of queens on it. And to throw those queens away when you raise 'em on the turn. And to just call and then check with A-A and A-K.

Anybody got a better argument than mine or tpir90036's for raising the turn?

[helpmeout]

No preflop raiser checks a king high flop HU without a monster.

Fold the turn.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
No preflop raiser checks a king high flop HU without a monster.

Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No preflop raiser checks a king high flop HU without a monster.

Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree

[/ QUOTE ]

At the risk of sounding patronizing:

This isn't 10-20 Party 6-max. Every off-tempo check does not indicate a monster. These players are capable of switching speeds with a variety of hands and for a variety of reasons.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the flop, lol.

[elysium]

hi nate

you aren't leading by enough when your turn raise is called. it is also unclear whether or not you have the lead. the best course in this situation is simply calling your opponent down.

i edited my first post about making a possible turn raise. i had you in first position with a draw to the nuts. seeing now that the turn produced an off-suit, and that you are in last position, under no circumstances should you raise. however, even if you did have first position, and a draw to the nuts, you should not attempt a semi-bluff check-raise in this spot. the reason? the semi won't foldout this opponent....and you also get into the issue of whether or not you are in the lead. in otherwords nate, you may not want the turn fold to your raise, however, since you aren't leading sufficiently enough those times the raise is called, you also don't like the call. a raise therefore, can only hurt you, and never help you in this spot.

yeah nate, you must quickly recognize when not to get fancy. this is usually the great majority of the time. as for the river, you must call nate. i see that you folded but no good. you must call this one.

[sthief09]

fair enough. what range are you putting him on when he bets the turn?

[Nigel]

Nate,

I think a turn raise is out of the question here. The river fold is probably warranted, but is IMO, the only thing that could even be questioned about the hand, unless the guy is a total donk.

nh.

Nigel

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
fair enough. what range are you putting him on when he bets the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

AA-99, AK, AQ, maybe another AJs, maybe something totally goofy.

[lil feller]

The only benefit of raising the turn is you might, just might, fold out QQ, and might, just might, get a free showdown from KQs or maybe AK. Unfortunately you'll also fold out TT, 99, etc that a LAG preflop might 4 bet with (if he is correctly putting you on 2 bigs).

I think you need to either give him credit for a monster, and fold the turn, or just call down. I don't see you getting the odds to call on the turn to draw to anything and if he's LAGGY who's to say he won't fire another hopless shell on the river. I can understand calling turn/river, and I can understand folding the turn, but calling the turn and folding the river makes zero sense to me.

Do you bet if he checks the river?

lf

[Nigel]

I think you have to think that anyone 4 betting their 99-goofy is loving the K hi flop and comes out blasting, unless he is tricky enough to think that he can take the pot away from you by checking.

Maybe, maybe, maybe 99 thinks this way, but in my experience goofy usually does not.

There is not much you are ahead of on the river.

Nigel

[mrbaseball]

Am I the only one who pitches this hand preflop? Unless I have seen this guy raising in EP with questionable holdings I have to try and pass the AQ test. I guess I need a better description of "somewhat loose-aggressive".

[17percent]

am i the only one that likes a smooth call pre-flop? i wouldnt mind letting a couple more players in with AJ suited.. i dont like the 3 bet with this hand too much. i understand he's a lag and youd like to isolate him but with just an ok kicker and the fact you are suited i think just calling preflop will put you in better position postflop(can be a little more deceptive, maybe get more people in the pot incase you flop your flush draw, probably get to a showdown for the same price without letting him "outplay" you if it ends up heads up). am i totally off base here?

[andyfox]

If we try to keep it simple, doesn't pocket queens make the most sense? He checks the flop because it contains a king. His opponent checks behind so he bets the turn. When his opponent just calls he bets it again on the river.

It might well be pocket kings too, but the more I think about it the more I like finding out with a raise on the turn.

[Lawrence Ng]

If you are going to call that turn, calling the river is a must IMHO. Otherwise fold that turn, move on to the next hand.

Lawrence

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
It might well be pocket kings too, but the more I think about it the more I like finding out with a raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

Lawrence

[Ezcheeze]

It's either hes slowplaying the set of kings or you have a chance to win by having the best hand or improveing. On the turn you need to decide how likely it is for him to have the set. Once you call the turn you should not fold the river it is completely contradictory.

I think you should strongly consider folding the turn as I rarely see poeple check the flop in this spot without a monster.

[gillabong]

I like raising the turn (to get out QQ). Fold to a 3-bet.

Between calling and folding the turn, I prefer to fold, but given that the turn was called, I think the river is a pretty clear fold (but probably a close call had the river been a rag instead of the T).

[Gator519]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the turn (to get out QQ). Fold to a 3-bet.

Between calling and folding the turn, I prefer to fold, but given that the turn was called, I think the river is a pretty clear fold (but probably a close call had the river been a rag instead of the T).

[/ QUOTE ]

So say you raise the turn, he calls.. river comes a 5, checked to you.. Do you bet that river or just check behind or does it depend on what comes on the river?

[geormiet]

I like it all around.

The flop is a clear check. Anytime someone checks after getting in the last raise in pf is getting cute with something...and since you're going to be checkraised probably >50% of the time defintiely a good time to check behind.

I think the turn is a tricky decision. I think however that since you might several outs and free cards aren't terrible to give, I don't like the idea of raising and folding to a 3 bet, so I like the call.

As far as raising to fold QQ...anyone who checks the Kxx flop with QQ is the type who has showdown in mind.

The river I think is a fine fold. 7:1. The only hand I think you're in good shape against is another AJ.

[jayheaps]

in terms of a turn raise, the question is what types of hands is the villian willing to fold. Would he fold QQ here? It seems like that is the only hand you could realistics bet him off of. (maybe AJ too)

Other hands like AK, KQ, i dont see him folding in this type of game.

[doodle2]

[ QUOTE ]
An opponent whom I regarded at the time as somewhat loose-aggressive, especially before the flop, open-raises from UTG+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's laggy preflop, theres a good chance he would 4 bet here with a fairly wide range of hands heads up; particularly if you're seen as a tight-ish. Given that, i think that a call on the river is an absolute must. If he'll 4 bet with pairs down to 6s, AKs-AJo and KQs, your pot equity is about 28% [this is largely dependent on what those two rags actually were] so getting 7:1 it seems like a call. Hell, i think he could be way out there playing some suited connector BS.

It's close and there are also meta-game considerations. This seems like a good place to make what looks like a loose call on the river.

just one lurker's opinion.

doodle

[fearme]

elysium, i dont see how u can say he should never raise here, free showdown?? but i dunno if i want to argue with a guy who gave me advice when i was a newbie

[gillabong]

[ QUOTE ]
So say you raise the turn, he calls.. river comes a 5, checked to you.. Do you bet that river or just check behind or does it depend on what comes on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd check behind unless a J comes. If its the type of player that will 3 bet the turn with AA/AK then bet the river if an ace hits as well.

[Nate tha' Great]

Not much to report here; I folded obviously and he didn't show.

FWIW, I planned to call down on a river blank, but felt like the T was an awful card for me since it improved AQ and TT, two of the hands that I felt like I was ahead of.

Still not sure about the turn play. This might fall into the category of "if your hand is worth calling down or even almost worth calling down, then it may be worth paying the same number of bets by raising and taking a free showdown if you have any folding equity at all".