Winning pots VS Theory of Poker

[hummusx]

One of the things I sort of struggle with understanding is the balance between 'take the pot down now' and 'when my opponent makes a mistake I profit'.

Let's say I hold AhAd and the flop comes K82 with 2 spades and the pot is T200 and my opponent has his QsJs face up on the table. 'Take the pot down now' says to bet and force him to fold so I can win the chips and increase my stack by 10% or 15% or whatever. But once I bet 150 into the pot, if he does the right thing and folds, aren't I losing money? Wouldn't I profit more if he were to call?

So lets say he calls, making the pot T500. The turn is a blank. If we both started with 800 chips, we've got 550 left each. Now with the pot being bigger I'm faced with the same dilemma. If know for a fact that he will fold to an all-in, and I also know for a fact that he will call a bet of 300 (2.6:1, a terrible call), how do I weigh the value of forcing him to make a correct play vs. risking the majority of my stack for a very profitable play?

[maddog2030]

The funny thing about tournament poker is that your opponent's mistakes do often hurt you.

[TheNoodleMan]

read tournement poker for advanced players, it should help you understand why winning the pot now is almost always a good thing.

[wiggs73]

Well for starters, pot odds shouldn't force your decisions in tournaments. They should be a factor, but that's it. We know odds to know what will make us money in the long run. Unfortunately, tournaments don't last for the long run. One suckout and it can be over. So...

The idea is that you want your opponent to make a mistake by calling (or by folding). In the example hand you gave, I would bet enough on the flop to make it 'incorrect' for him to call, but hopefully he still would. Neither of us have much of our stacks invested and I'd like for the pot to get a bit larger. However, on the turn with a substantial amount in the pot, I'm looking more to take it down. There are often times when you should be satisfied with the pot as-is. If you get a called for 300 more on the turn, you're pretty much pot committed at that point anyway. Either way, all of your chips are going in. So I'd just push the turn. Now, if he wants to call, then I don't mind it because he's incorrect to do so. At the same time, if he folds, I don't mind that either because the pot is already large and I'm satisfied with the amount of action I got with my aces.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
Well for starters, pot odds shouldn't force your decisions in tournaments. They should be a factor, but that's it. We know odds to know what will make us money in the long run. Unfortunately, tournaments don't last for the long run. One suckout and it can be over.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, there's still a long run with tournaments. You can, after all, play more than 1 tournament. You can you play an infinity amount of tournaments and that will still not make strictly pot odds considerations the most profitable decisions (and you will see every situation there is an infinity amount of times). The reason strictly pot odd considerations are incorrect is because chips and real money are two different things, and their exact relationship changes constantly. It has nothing to do with the long termity (is this a word?) of tournaments.

Edit: Let me just say this depends on your goals. If your goal is to make the most money, then what I said holds true. If your goal is to simply win all the chips (take 1st), then normal pot odds considerations apply.

[__Q__]

If you bet large and he folds, then there is no chance that you will bust out of the tournament and there is value in that beyond just what is in the pot. Since survial itself has value in tournaments, you need to add that "value" to the pots when you calculate your pot odds. In order to compensate for the value of survival, you want to force your opponents to make bigger mistakes than you would in a cash game.

The bigger you bet, the bigger the mistake your opponent makes if he calls. If he does call, you need the chips you get for the bigger mistake to compensate for the fact that you are putting your survival at risk.

Unfortunately, I don't have a good formula for how to balance all this. Its hard because you have to consider both your position in the tournament (to determine exactly valuable riskless survival is) and what other player is willing to call.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
read tournement poker for advanced players, it should help you understand why winning the pot now is almost always a good thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read TPFAP. I still have questions. I just don't think you can make it as simple as 'winning the pot now is almost always a good thing'. I definitely think there is a balance between taking it down and getting some value out of your hands.

[wiggs73]

I agree with what you said for the most part, but I don't feel that what I said is wrong either. I think we are getting at the same point. There are times in a tournament that you don't want an opponent making a call, even though it would be incorrect for him to according to pot odds.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
But once I bet 150 into the pot, if he does the right thing and folds, aren't I losing money? Wouldn't I profit more if he were to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you would profit more if he called. That would be a mistake by your opponent. Therefore, you bet enough that it makes it a poor play to call. And you did. If he folds, so what? It would have been better for him to call (for you) but far worse for you if you slapped 75 out there and he called getting odds.

[maddog2030]

We agreed on the conclusion, but we disagree with how we arrived there. Either way, I think the point was made that your opponents mistakes can hurt you, because they hurt both you and your opponent while helping everyone else at the table.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say I hold AhAd and the flop comes K82 with 2 spades and the pot is T200 and my opponent has his QsJs face up on the table. 'Take the pot down now' says to bet and force him to fold so I can win the chips and increase my stack by 10% or 15% or whatever. But once I bet 150 into the pot, if he does the right thing and folds, aren't I losing money? Wouldn't I profit more if he were to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you give him a free card you are offering him infinite odds on his draw. TOP does not recommend giving a free card here. You will profit when you opponent makes mistakes, but you must give him the opportunity to make a mistake. If you both lay your cards on the table here, you should bet something that would make it -$EV for him to call and hope he doesn't calculate as well as you do.

[ QUOTE ]
So lets say he calls, making the pot T500. The turn is a blank. If we both started with 800 chips, we've got 550 left each. Now with the pot being bigger I'm faced with the same dilemma. If know for a fact that he will fold to an all-in, and I also know for a fact that he will call a bet of 300 (2.6:1, a terrible call), how do I weigh the value of forcing him to make a correct play vs. risking the majority of my stack for a very profitable play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let him make the biggest mistake you think he is likely to make. Remember though in a tournament, chips do not all have the same value and you can't just go by pot odds. Conventional thought is that you will need to bet more here in a tournament because you want to be called less than you do in a cash game.

[Pokerscott]

Variance is generally a bad thing in a SnG.

Think about this example: First hand of a SnG. You are BB and SB flips over their cards (say QJs) and goes all-in. What type of hand do you call with?

In a ring game you would call with any hand that was a favorite against QJs (ignoring the overlay from the blinds at the moment). In a tournament that is not the right answer. You need to be about a 55% favorite in order to make that call. Why? Well any time you are involved in the action in a tournament, the other players are generally winning at the expense of the players fighting. The absolute best table you can hope for is to be at a table where all the other players constantly go all-in. At this table you can fold your way to 2nd place every time (woohoo 200% ROI!).

In your example, getting called increases your chip variance which is bad for you (and the caller which is important to realize end-game). Thus, you need to factor that into the straight pot-odds calculation.

By betting more than the straight pot odds imply you can either get lower variance due to a fold (good) or get paid more due to a call (good)

Pokerscott

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]
You can you play an infinity amount of tournaments

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me in on your secret.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me in on your secret.

[/ QUOTE ]

Red bull.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
read tournement poker for advanced players, it should help you understand why winning the pot now is almost always a good thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read TPFAP. I still have questions. I just don't think you can make it as simple as 'winning the pot now is almost always a good thing'. I definitely think there is a balance between taking it down and getting some value out of your hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, but it has some relativity to it. In this example, 25% of your starting stack is sitting in the middle. This represents a large sum of chips. Then, if you get to the turn by your example, 62% of your starting stack is sitting in the middle. Accumulating chips, when you think about in these terms is a large move. You shouldn't lessen it's meaning because you could gain more value by toying with villain.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Conventional thought is that you will need to bet more here in a tournament because you want to be called less than you do in a cash game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never seen this line before, but it's well put.

[the_joker]

Here's a good example of this... Should I just push this turn? I got greedy with not so good results /images/graemlins/blush.gif ($33 buyin)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1405)
SB (t3355)
BB (t810)
UTG (t1645)
UTG+1 (t1595)
MP1 (t1120)
MP2 (t2590)
CO (t980)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, CO calls t30, Hero calls t30, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t180) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, SB calls t150, BB folds, MP1 calls t150, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Turn: (t630) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, SB calls t400, MP1 folds.

River: (t1430) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t960</font>, Hero calls t825 (All-In).

Final Pot: t3215

[lastchance]

I do the odd smaller than usual bet thing too. It's bad. Not only does pushing shut draws out, it also gets called because "it looks fishy."

[Scuba Chuck]

Joker, your turn move is very difficult with this board. Let me repeat the board here:

5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Not only are there two flush draws, but also an obvious straight draw. In this instance, IMO, your turn bet is ur defining bet. This is the bet where you decide if you put anymore chips in the pot. Your turn bet was check smooth called by SB who then led out on the river. It's a little bit difficult to assess this move, because I don't have a buyin for this hand, but that's a very difficult river bet to call. There's so many hands that beat you.

In the end, I think your turn bet was the "right" amount. The lead bet by SB is so strange to me. Generally, I'd fear a t400 chip bet (half your remaining stack) more than a bet that puts you allin. This is a move, though, that is often done by an amateur who maybe has a set or the straight and fears the flush. Who knows?

This hand is a great example of how things can get away with you. IF SB has chased the flush draw horribly wrong, then so be it. But he may have the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, like the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, or T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, or even better the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif then you can't fault him too much for chasing, in fact you generally prefer it.

In the end, you need to put your Flush sniffer on in these hands, and be sure not to pay off someone chasing, by sniffing it out. This hand played very strange though, if villain really does have the flush.

[valenzuela]

I call with JJ+, any ace, any king.

[GrekeHaus]

In tournaments, the more chips you have, the less each one is worth in terms of real money (generally speaking). Here's an example.

Say you're at the beginning of a 10 person, 10,000 chip tournament and nobody has been eliminated. Say you're in a pot with your opponent and there is 1,000 in the pot with one card to come. Somehow both you and your opponent are playing with your cards face up and you know that you're exactly a 2:1 favorite to win and you are first to act.

Case 1: You and your opponenet each have exactly 999 chips left. You go all in.

If your opponent is a good and experienced cash game player, he might call here because he's only a 2:1 dog and he's getting better than that to call. However, if your opponent is an experience tournament player, he will know that folding here is correct, because the relative value of the chips he would win is less than the relative value of the chips he loses when he loses.

Case 2: You each have exactly 1,001 chips. You go all in.

If you were in a cash game here, you would want your opponenet to call since he's actually losing chips each time he calls. However, you still don't want a call for the same reason as above. In order for you to want your opponent to call you actually need to put in significantly more chips that you would in a cash game.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Oddly enough, there are also times when you can call a bet even if the pot doesn't seem to be offering you sufficient odds. This generally occurs when you have a big stack and a small stack goes all-in against you. In this case, winning his extra chips doesn't particularly help your stack, but because he doesn't have very many chips, those chips are worth a lot to him. If he is eliminated, the extra value of those chips is spread around between all of the rest of the chips at the table. So the times you knock him out you will not only gain the value of the chips you win from him, but the rest of the chips in your stack will increase in value as well!!!

[Scuba Chuck]

Grekehaus, nice post. Welcome to the forum. I say this tongue and cheek. I know you **officially** don't like SNGs, but you've been hanging around lately. Maybe you've changed your mind?

Scuba

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
Grekehaus, nice post. Welcome to the forum. I say this tongue and cheek. I know you **officially** don't like SNGs, but you've been hanging around lately. Maybe you've changed your mind?

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been playing SNGs exclusively for about a month now. I got bored and burnt out with limit ring games and wanted to try something new. I found SNGs to be a good change of pace and intellectually, I find the theory of SNG play to be quite interesting as well.

--GH

[Freudian]

Taking down the pot is not the only goal (if it was we would push everytime we had the nuts). It is about trying to find a balance between getting paid often enough by second best hand and not giving people odds to outdraw you.

I think by not giving people odds to draw both eventualities are fine. If they fold I get the chips, if they draw I get a bigger pot I am favourite in.

The fundamental theorem of poker is useless anyway since you need to know what cards the opponent had to figure out who made the mistake in a hand. While playing you have to make some assumptions about what kind of hand your opponent has and try to play from that. And frequently we guess wrong.