Fold it?

[QTip]

Villain is 20/8/1.5

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero ?

I can't find a reason to go on.

[toss]

Me neither. Only thing may be that villain has a good read on you, but that turn card sucks. Nice fold.

[SmileyEH]

If hero is smart he knows with almost certainty that you don't have an ace. Don't know if that makes it a calldown, but something to think about.

-SmileyEH

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
If hero is smart he knows with almost certainty that you don't have an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must not be smart yet then Smiley, because I'm putting myself in villain's shoes and I can't see why I would think that. I'm still the aggressor in the hand on the turn card, I think a check here is very suspicious.

Why would you think that?

[toss]

If I were villain, I'd think you either have JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. Once the turn falls he might think AA is less likely and he may have a J making JJ less likely. This is a pretty far streatch though.

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were villain, I'd think you either have JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. Once the turn falls he might think AA is less likely and he may have a J making JJ less likely. This is a pretty far streatch though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain did 3 bet preflop and is fairly tight. If he has a J then he likely has trips.
We're pretty much done here, I think.

-WT

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If hero is smart he knows with almost certainty that you don't have an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must not be smart yet then Smiley, because I'm putting myself in villain's shoes and I can't see why I would think that. I'm still the aggressor in the hand on the turn card, I think a check here is very suspicious.

Why would you think that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you aren't going to be threebetting the flop with AK, so the only hand with an ace is AA. He's probably still ahead, but if the jack weren't there I'd be tempted to call down.

-SmileyEH

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If hero is smart he knows with almost certainty that you don't have an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must not be smart yet then Smiley, because I'm putting myself in villain's shoes and I can't see why I would think that. I'm still the aggressor in the hand on the turn card, I think a check here is very suspicious.

Why would you think that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you aren't going to be threebetting the flop with AK, so the only hand with an ace is AA. He's probably still ahead, but if the jack weren't there I'd be tempted to call down.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's assume the Jack is gone and the hand plays out the same way. What hands are you putting your opponent on that you are beating or have odds to draw against to call the turn, let alone call the river UI???

This guy is fairly tight and 3 bet preflop and raised the flop. He may not have capped the flop because he has a monster and wants to raise the turn or because I has an Ace with an over (i don't think he's three betting KQ).

I'm curious. What do you think he can have that you're going to beat to make a call down correct?

-WT

[QTip]

FWIW, I'm 3 betting with AJ here too, but there's less combos of that obviously.

I do agree though, that the presence of the J sucks.

[SmileyEH]

If the jack wasn't there hero would be ahead of JJ.

-SmileyEH

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
If the jack wasn't there hero would be ahead of JJ.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, we're ahead of TT too, but this guy isn't all that aggressive post flop and when he raises me on the turn with the A out I'm thinking he probably doesn't have JJ....unless he's being particularly tricky this time.

(this is all assuming the hand plays the same way, but the J is not on the board, but is instead...say...a deuce.)

-WT

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the jack wasn't there hero would be ahead of JJ.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, we're ahead of TT too, but this guy isn't all that aggressive post flop and when he raises me on the turn with the A out I'm thinking he probably doesn't have JJ....unless he's being particularly tricky this time.

(this is all assuming the hand plays the same way, but the J is not on the board, but is instead...say...a deuce.)

-WT

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying it's not a fold, I'm just saying if the villian was particularly tricky he knows that the ace is a scarecard.

-SmileyEH

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I'm 3 betting with AJ here too, but there's less combos of that obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

But are you capping pre-flop with AJ?

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I'm 3 betting with AJ here too, but there's less combos of that obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

But are you capping pre-flop with AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the most important question is: are you 3-betting with AJ preflop?

[chesspain]

This seems like a super easy fold, unless one thinks the CO has KJ or TT--which would mean that the CO is a major LAG, which is not suggested by his stats.

[Jeff W]

He probably has AA, JJ or AhKh. In any case, you're beat. Fold and move on.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a super easy fold, unless one thinks the CO has KJ or TT--which would mean that the CO is a major LAG, which is not suggested by his stats.

[/ QUOTE ]


Exactly.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a super easy fold, unless one thinks the CO has KJ or TT--which would mean that the CO is a major LAG, which is not suggested by his stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to find the fold button with big pocket pairs when appropriate. I've been calling down way too often and loosing big bets when I do. I just want to make sure that I'm not getting soft.

[JerseyTom]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I'm 3 betting with AJ here too, but there's less combos of that obviously.

I do agree though, that the presence of the J sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but you're (probably) not capping AJ preflop are you? More importantly, does villain know that?

The only hands with an A that villain thinks you'll bet/3-bet the flop are AA and A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. If he has an A himself, the A on the turn makes it less likely you have AA. He himself could have AJ.

It sucks folding in an almost-13BB pot, but I think it's the right way to go. Too many hands beat you.


Tom

[molawn2mo]

smiley:

your analysis throughout has been right on and i doubt whether i could have concluded same in the heat of battle. i also know that unless villain were known to be TAG and an intelligent one at that, for him to make this "play" without an A would be quite impressive.

[johnd192]

Fold.

In the heat of battle though I might have called down just to look him up.