AK and a pretty favorable missed flop

[wuwei]

Sadly, I have no useful read on the villian here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney 50+5
Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t840)
UTG (t1160)
UTG+1 (t1345)
Hero (t1685)
MP2 (t735)
MP3 (t405)
CO (t1275)
Button (t1575)
SB (t980)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t110</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t80.

Flop: (t235) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t125</font>, BB pushes for t730, Hero...

[Karak567]

Hero folds.

[gumpzilla]

Fold; I think you're drawing to six or fewer outs something like 90% of the time here.

[pearljam]

why not check the flop?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
why not check the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm heads up with position and I think I have the best hand at this point.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm heads up with position and I think I have the best hand
at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you bet this flop if you were holding JT?

I've thought about it some more, and I think I was wrong before in my estimate of how often you're behind. I still think that most of the time this is going to be 88-JJ, and perhaps occasionally you'll run into a T. But I think for a lot of people what your flop bet signifies is "Aha, he doesn't have a T," and then they might try and move you off of this, guessing that you probably don't have an overpair, either. So this is perhaps an argument for checking here; he who bets first, loses. It also leans me more toward calling, though I think that this is still definitely a hand you can get away from.

[lastchance]

Fold, unless you have some insane read...

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you bet this flop if you were holding JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the time, yes.

[ QUOTE ]
I've thought about it some more, and I think I was wrong before in my estimate of how often you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I think it has to be more than 10% here. Without a read, it's hard to judge how much though. I actually ran into this type of situation 3 times tonight. One time he had an underpair, one time he had complete garbage, and one time I folded.

[ QUOTE ]
I still think that most of the time this is going to be 88-JJ,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, but I still get two chances to outdraw him.

For a MTT perspective on this type of hand, there's a thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2699990&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) in the MTT forum right now. In that one, Nate's read makes a big difference.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still think that most of the time this is going to be 88-JJ,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, but I still get two chances to outdraw him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're getting a pretty bad price for a six outer though. And of course, he'll be drawing to at least three outs himself if he's behind. I'm lazy and don't really feel like doing the math at the moment as to how often he needs to be totally bluffing for this to be a good spot, but I think it needs to be reasonably often, say 40% or so. He might well be bluffing enough - I'll certainly pull this stunt from time to time with air here - but that's a somewhat tricky and very aggressive play, whereas I would expect many more types of players to move in with middling pockets here.

It's an interesting hand, though, and I'd be curious to hear the thoughts of others.