A turn decision with a good hand

[private joker]

I'm posting this in HUSH because despite the fullness of the table, the post-flop play was all heads up and the hand raises a question I have about general situations like this in heads-up play.

The opponent here plays pretty tight and somewhat aggressively.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

I can see arguments for bet/calling, check/raising, and check-calling. What's the standard line for this turn and why?

Corollary: does anyone play the flop differently?

[kidcolin]

I probably woulda check raised the flop, and if I get 3-bet, check call until the flush hits. Otherwise lead the turn.

In this scenario, I probably lead out most the time. He probably won't call a check raise without a better ace or a diamond. So really the only hand you want him to have is KK or JJ with a diamond in that case.

[private joker]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
I probably woulda check raised the flop, and if I get 3-bet, check call until the flush hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why build the pot putting in 50% of the money when the flush only hits 35% of the time?

[Nick C]

All right, let's see. If you're ahead, you're most likely way ahead and would rather not push MP3 out with a turn checkraise. Then again, he won't fold the turn if he's got a diamond.

But if you're behind, you need to stay in and chase. So you can't checkraise-fold. On the other hand, since you have the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I guess maybe a 3-bet isn't that likely. But I'm not sure. MP3 might make the 3-bet with a set or aces up or maybe even with a hand like A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Okay, I think I'm leaning against the checkraise idea.

What about betting? Well, if two bets go in you're probably chasing, unless MP3 decides to semi-bluff raise with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or something (but I wouldn't expect him to).

If you check with the intention of calling, MP3 might decide to take the free card with, say, J /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. But, if he does take the free card, he might also call you on the river with an unimproved big pair, after the turn check-through. And he might actually raise your river bet if he makes his flush.

Hmm. I think I like check-calling.

I'm not entirely confident about that advice, though, so I'm curious what others will say.

Anyway, I think what you did on the flop is okay. A flop checkraise semi-bluff might be something else to consider, but I'm not sure how likely that is to work on such an obviously scary board. Maybe checkraising the flop would fail to push out hands like TT while at the same time making is less likely for you to win many more bets if you do improve. (You are a slight favorite over TT at this point, but usually Villain will have something else.) So I'm leaning toward the flop line you took.

Edit: On the other hand, I guess a flop checkraise could set up a steal (on the turn or more likely on the river) versus AK, so it does have that potential advantage.

[wrto4556]

I like check/raising this turn. There are alot of hands that you're ahead of. The only problem is not all of them pay off a check/raise. K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif,K /images/graemlins/heart.gif will, but im not sre about K /images/graemlins/heart.gif,K /images/graemlins/club.gif. The more he pays off with the more I like check/raising.

By betting, KK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif just calls where you would have gotten a check/raise. But, A /images/graemlins/club.gif,K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif raises.

Another reason to check/raise is there is a possibility that he just calls a turn check/raise with a better hand, albiet small.

Lastly, you have cards to improve.


I play the flop the same.

[etizzle]

Well its quite possible that JJ-77 might fold right there on the flop if they dont have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. And even if they dont you are the favorite.

They also may fold incorrectly with the middle pairs if a K hits on the turn.

That said, a check call is fine on the flop but I would bet out on the turn. JJ, TT, and KK will often check behind in this spot.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check with the intention of calling, MP3 might decide to take the free card with, say, J J . But, if he does take the free card, he might also call you on the river with an unimproved big pair, after the turn check-through. And he might actually raise your river bet if he makes his flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we miss alot of value by checking the turn with the intention of calling a bet.

I would much rather bet/call than check/call.

Our hand figures to be best 70% of the time.

A problem I see with a turn check/raise is that we don't want to fold a hand with only two outs. But KK with a diamond isnt folding although he still has only two outs. Basically, he's folding half of the hands that only have two outs and calling with the other half. EDIT:And that's only if he's smart enough to fold.

**Warning: My math sucks!**
If we check/raise we may fold out 33% of the hands we beat, get 3-bet by the other 33% of the hands we are behind, and get an extra bet from 33% of the other hands that call. But we also draw out 20% of the time.

I think with the likely-hood of being ahead + draws we are looking to put in some bets on the turn.

[Nick C]

Enough people so far want to put more action in on the turn than I do that I think I'll do some combos.

So . . . let's see.

We're losing to:

AA (1 combo)
AK (8 combos)
AQ (6 combos)
QQ (3 combos)

We're beating:

KK (6 combos)
JJ (3 combos)
TT (6 combos)

Possibly Villain's range should be wider, but since this is 3/6 and he's tight, I'll just stick with those hands.

So we're ahead (against this range) a little less often than we're behind. However, when we're behind, we have the better of the outs, on average. And, also, it's entirely possible Villain's range should in fact be a little wider. So it looks like we do have an equity edge. But also, we're out of position, and more bets are going to go in when we're behind than when we're ahead.

There is some danger too that Villain will fold a one-outer if we show strength, but it might be hard to get much more out of a diamondless JJ/TT (and lower pairs) anyway.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Our hand figures to be best 70% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have my doubts about this versus a tight Party 3/6 player who 3-bet preflop.

[wrto4556]

I put it in Pstove and had his range of hands as AA-99 and AK(s).

The problem of him checking behind hands on the turn is uncomfortable. Maybe he calls with a weak hand if we donk bet the turn?

[pshabi]

Haven't read a reply yet......

I check/raise this flop hoping for a free card on the turn.

I like bet/call on this turn.

[wrto4556]

Why check/raise the flop? It's doubtful we get a free card OOP.

I could understand for fold equity, but most hands he's 3-betting are atleast going to the river.

[wrto4556]

Thinking about this more, if he is capable of folding a pair without a flush draw &lt; AK, I like bet/call. No free cards..yadda yadda.

If he is tight but can't make correct folds, I think a check/raise is in line.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I put it in Pstove and had his range of hands as AA-99 and AK(s).

The problem of him checking behind hands on the turn is uncomfortable. Maybe he calls with a weak hand if we donk bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it does depend on what hands we put in the range.

I was using AA-TT, AK/AQ. Dropping AQ (as you did) adds to Hero's equity, as does adding 99.

I can't tell if you included AKo or not, but if you didn't, that would also add to Hero's equity.

Anyway, you used a range that was favorable to Hero, and I used one that was pretty unfavorable.

The correct range may fall somewhere in between.

[sthief09]

yeck raise unless he's weak tight

[wrto4556]

I promise I didnt do that on purpose. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I just think the average "tight" player is more likely to 3-bet 99 than AQ.

I also think the average "tight" player pays off a turn check/raise with worse hands, fwiw.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I promise I didnt do that on purpose. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I just think the average "tight" player is more likely to 3-bet 99 than AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree. I also think for some tight 3/6 players both of our ranges are too wide, and the correct one should be more like AA-TT/AK. If that were the case here, then the question of whether or not we should in fact include TT becomes important.

[ QUOTE ]
I also think the average "tight" player pays off a turn check/raise with worse hands, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think many tight players would hang on to KK here, with or without a diamond, and also (not quite as) many would with JJ/TT. I agree that some players do fall in love with their big pairs.

I'm kind of warming to the turn checkraise idea, actually, though I'm still not really sure what's best.

[kidcolin]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Svar på:
I probably woulda check raised the flop, and if I get 3-bet, check call until the flush hits.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why build the pot putting in 50% of the money when the flush only hits 35% of the time?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have good fold equity in hands JJ-?? (I cut off at either 99 or 88) and AK without a diamond. Pairs lower than JJ you're making a value raise on. The lower pair hands might peel one off to see the turn. If they peeled for a diamond and it hits, they're drawing dead. Otherwise, they might fold to more pressure if they don't improve. I'm leading on just about any turn card, though a non-diamond K might suck.

[adamstewart]

Check-raising the flop is nearly pointless.

Leading out on the flop is asking to get auto-raised, and you won't know where you stand.

I like the flop check/call.


I go for the check-raise on the turn.




Adam

[private joker]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
Check-raising the flop is nearly pointless.

Leading out on the flop is asking to get auto-raised, and you won't know where you stand.

I like the flop check/call.


I go for the check-raise on the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking at the time. He checked behind on the turn (d'oh!) and called the brick (non-diamond) river with KQs. MHIG.

The results made me re-consider bet-calling the turn, but I like all the arguments in this thread for check-raising. At least his turn check allowed an easy value bet for me on the river, and it seems likely he would have folded to a turn c/r anyway, so on this board it's possible just leading the turn and river would get me the most out of this hand. But when he raises the turn, how often and how well do I need to improve on the river to win?