KK preflop 55s

[Jay36489]

And no I'm not going to ask if I should fold it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t975)
CO (t955)
Button (t970)
SB (t985)
BB (t985)
UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1775)
Hero (t960)
MP1 (t915)
MP2 (t480)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t250</font>, 1 fold, Hero...?

He hasn't played a hand yet, so no real read. This bet smells like JJ to me. Is it a good idea to smooth call here hoping to get him all in on a flop consisting of unders?

[Myst]

No reraise all in. You think hes gonna let it go after putting 1/4 of his stack in. Often times this is QQ or JJ.

And btw, Jay, stop joining my tables. Its -EV for the both of us.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

He hasn't played a hand yet, so no real read. This bet smells like JJ to me. Is it a good idea to smooth call here hoping to get him all in on a flop consisting of unders?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unlikely; if he's making a 15 BB PF bet with a hand like JJ because he doesn't want to take a flop, and you call him, I can't see him investing more unless he hits a set, because presumably he'll realize that you've got a substantial holding to call this ridiculous PF raise with so many left to act. Go ahead and push now; I don't see how you're likely to extract more postflop, and I think you'll get called by JJ-QQ reasonably often. There's a nontrivial chance that this is a fancy play with AA to induce a push over the top, but I think that happens rarely enough that the push is still a good play, and you're not getting away from this hand.

[Jay36489]

hmm... I would if I knew your sn /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

I was thinking he might fold though. Perhaps hes not on JJ? What else can you put him on. As the tourney went on his numbers were relatively solid.

[gumpzilla]

I think a common range of hands for making this bet is: AQ, AJ, TT-QQ, probably KK and AA thrown in. Basically, hands that he thinks are pretty good but doesn't want to see a flop with.

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
Unlikely; if he's making a 15 BB PF bet with a hand like JJ because he doesn't want to take a flop, and you call him, I can't see him investing more unless he hits a set, because presumably he'll realize that you've got a substantial holding to call this ridiculous PF raise with so many left to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you so often see JJ bet hard on unders hoping I have AK or something. He didn't want to see a flop with this hand becuase he didnt want AK to flop an A or K, but now that he did and its all unders, "its safe".

[lastchance]

I think reraising all-in is clearly correct. I doubt someone can get let go of a hand after putting t250 in.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

But you so often see JJ bet hard on unders hoping I have AK or something. He didn't want to see a flop with this hand becuase he didnt want AK to flop an A or K, but now that he did and its all unders, "its safe".

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but how often do you see this after JJ put in a 15 BB PF bet? I don't tend to see many flops in these circumstances, so obviously there's a sample size problem, but I'm not sure that this opponent is likely to stack off with JJ as an overpair to the flop but fold it PF if you push over the top. After all, they can cross their fingers and hope it's just AK then, too.

[Newt_Buggs]

my only consideration is if raising to 500 might have a slightly greater chance of getting more action than pushing

[Sykes]

Is this common? 15xBB raise early on?

Why would anyone make a raise this large?

Oh yeah, plz push.

[Jay36489]

Well, I pushed and he thought for a while, then folded. It's so weak tight in the early rounds I wasn't suprised when he did. Maybe this was just a rare occurence. I still wonder if he had JJ...

[ChuckNorris]

Cool. Next time you can do that with any 2 /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Unarmed]

I smooth call.
He raised that much because a) he doesn't want any action, so he'll fold to your push, or b) he wants to appear weak with AA.

Also, you're in EP. By smooth calling you may encourage MP2 to shove with Ax/midPP, and some random donkey may call off half his stack with 33.

My stack is going in on the flop unless an ace flops. If the guy is that afraid of playing JJ postflop he's not going to bluff me off a better hand OOP on an ace-high flop.

I would push if I had AA (though that's probably wrong as I don't think KK makes that type of raise) and/or I was OOP post-flop and/or I had a small enough stack to pot commit him PF.
Note: I suffer from FPS. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[KingDan]

I like a minraise here. I Don't see him folding for 250 more chips, even if it screams a monster.
Push every flop.

[freemoney]

yeah this is a situation where i sometimes minraise 9/10 players on the table know you have KK/AA but open raiser still wont be able to fold here.

[freemoney]

gump im not trying to be a dick but your advice and analysis is SO BAD SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD that i would ban you, it hurts my head to read what you say. no one is making an open raise for 250 when the blinds are 15 and then folding after an all unders flop, was he just trying to steal the blinds because like you said doesnt wanna see a flop but then gets the best flop he can without setting and now will fold an over 500 chip pot with an overpair? MY HEAD HURTS I GOTTA GO...

[gumpzilla]

And I would say that extremely few people are going to make a 15 BB PF (EDIT:open) raise and fold to a push over the top, too, so what difference does it make, from that perspective? What I was saying was that if this guy does one, he's far more likely to do the other, and thus you might as well push.

[freemoney]

NO YOU DIDNT SAY THAT YOU SAID HES FOLDING ON AN ALL UNDERS FLOP, AND PEOPLE ARE ALOTTTTT MORE LIKELY TO FOLD PRE THEN WHEN THEY HAVE AN OVERPAIR HERE LIKE 0% WITH AN OVERPAIR, IM NOT SAYING A PUSH PRE IS BAD BUT THATS NOT WHAT YOU SAID, YOUR ANALYSIS OR A HAND IS SO BAD IT COULD BE CONSTRUED AS A JOKE.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
NO YOU DIDNT SAY THAT

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I did:

[ QUOTE ]

Right, but how often do you see this after JJ put in a 15 BB PF bet? I don't tend to see many flops in these circumstances, so obviously there's a sample size problem, but I'm not sure that this opponent is likely to stack off with JJ as an overpair to the flop but fold it PF if you push over the top. After all, they can cross their fingers and hope it's just AK then, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
YOUR ANALYSIS OR A HAND IS SO BAD IT COULD BE CONSTRUED AS A JOKE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say the same about your literacy skills.

[freemoney]

MY LITERACY SKILLS? LOL IRONIC, AND WHEN WE ARE IN A 10TH GRADE ENGLISH FORUM, COOL. FOR NOW WE ARE TALKING ABOUT POKER AND YOU ARE VERY BAD.

Unlikely; if he's making a 15 BB PF bet with a hand like JJ because he doesn't want to take a flop, and you call him, I can't see him investing more unless he hits a set, because presumably he'll realize that you've got a substantial holding to call this ridiculous PF raise with so many left to act.

THAT WAS WHAT YOU INITIALLY SAID..

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

THAT WAS WHAT YOU INITIALLY SAID.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that is what I initially said. I expanded upon it later. Is this a problem?

Do you really have lots of experience taking flops against 15 BB open raisers to make proclamations about what they will and won't do? I don't, and I'm speculating, but I'm happy to admit that. Also, how often have you seen somebody fold PF after open raising 15 BB and then getting pushed over the top?

[freemoney]

alot more then they will fold with an overpair, if they dont wanna see a flop and will fold an overpair then they wanna steal blinds?, you didnt expand you made 2 totally different points

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
alot more then they will fold with an overpair

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think that's true.

[ QUOTE ]
if they dont wanna see a flop and will fold an overpair then they wanna steal blinds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently that's exactly what they want, since it's impossible to do more than take what's already in the pot without seeing a flop.

[Moonsugar]

Reraising all in should be your default play here, get most money in while you have a chance and keeps image of your raises up if you showdown.

[Moonsugar]

Also, Russian and Swedish players make this play quite often with AA I have noticed.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this common? 15xBB raise early on?

Why would anyone make a raise this large?

Oh yeah, plz push.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the 11's, I see this fairly often right after someone gets beat. Next hand, they spike up a huge bet even to steal 25 or 45 chips in antes just to make themselves feel better and, um, show people they're still fearsome, or something.

[MegaBet]

I would "min" raise to 500 to get at least a call from UTG. I really really doubt he has aces (why would he bet so much?), therefore you have the best hand and want to milk it. Push the flop whatever comes up.

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
I smooth call.
He raised that much because a) he doesn't want any action, so he'll fold to your push

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I was thinking.

[MegaBet]

Why wouldn't you raise PF? At least give the guy a chance to put in more chips. He may want to see what the flop brings (if he has KJ, K10, J10, etc). A smooth call is very dangerous I think. If he does have a medium pocket pair, he'll likely fold, and you don't want him catching a set on the flop.

[Jay36489]

Becuase my read is that he is a relatively solid $55s player. He's not raising that much on any of those hands (which are all clearly folds from UTG in lvl 1). You do take the danger of him hitting his set, but hes practically all in already, and he already doenst have the oddsyou want when playing for set value. The only thing is, if you smooth call and an a, k or Q does flop, you probably can't get that much out of him, and he gets away realatively cheaply, which is what happened anyway.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it a good idea to smooth call here hoping to get him all in on a flop consisting of unders?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say that i will make this play ~75% of the time. The reason being is that if he has jacks and a board comes with 2 low diamonds (or some other arbitrary draw heavy flop), he will push into 99.99% of the time.