JJ preflop at level 1 vs. all-in re-raise from bigger stack

[EasilyFound]

$11 SNG at Party. I suppose this is a common situation. Still at level 1, so I don't have a read on villan, who doubled up on the first hand by hitting a set on the flop. Do you call, figuring you have the best hand and that he's bullying with his stack or do you fold because it is early and he could have one of the few better hands here.

BTW, do you think the preflop raise was big enough or do you usually raise more in this kind of situation? It might not have changed how the hand unfolded, but I'm curious if folks usually raise more here.

***** Hand History for Game 2238508986 *****
15/30 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 13272042) - Mon Jun 20 22:40:39 EDT 2005
Table Table 11880 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: bostero111 (555)
Seat 2: theslegde (1220)
Seat 3: schunk (640)
Seat 4: CFCRAIG (1665)
Seat 5: bull6676 (1625)
Seat 6: QueenBee1201 (800)
Seat 7: EasilyFound (770)
Seat 9: Sauceman12 (725)
schunk posts small blind (10)
CFCRAIG posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to EasilyFound [ Jd, Js ]
bull6676 calls (15)
QueenBee1201 calls (15)
EasilyFound raises (100) to 100
Sauceman12 folds.
bostero111 folds.
theslegde folds.
schunk folds.
CFCRAIG folds.
bull6676 raises (1610) to 1625
bull6676 is all-In.
QueenBee1201 folds.
EasilyFound ?????

[JackWhite]

I'd call. I think it is extremely likely you have the best hand. Coming off a big win with his set, he might be trying to push you around. Would he move in with a pair of queens or better here? Probably not.

[lastchance]

I fold. Meh.

[SumZero]

I play on UB where we start with 1500 chips and may have different characteristics. But in a situation like this I think a reaise to 100 was right. The call/fold decision is tough. With AA I call. With KK I almost always call. With QQ I sometimes call (more often fold, but if I had only 700ish chips I think I'd call more often than not, hmm, this would be the coinflip for me). With JJ I fold almost always (and similarly for AK). When he goes over the top for an overbet after the limp-reraise with the big stack I'd probably put him on something like the following ranges, being very conservative (as I think I'm underestimating the limp-reraise all in AA % as many people love to make that move):

1. 25%: AA
2. 25%: AA-QQ, AK
3. 25%: AA-77, AK-AT, AKs-A9s, KQs
4. 20%: AA-22, Ax, KQ-K9, QJ-QT, JT, Kxs, suited connectors
5. 5%: Any two cards

(If he went all in after your raise as his first action rather than limp-reraise I'd probably call and I'd put the probabilities more at 0/20/50/20/10 respectively)

So let's work out your expectations folding versus calling:

If you fold:

Seat 1: bostero111 (555)
Seat 2: theslegde (1220)
Seat 3: schunk (630)
Seat 4: CFCRAIG (1650)
Seat 5: bull6676 (1765)
Seat 6: QueenBee1201 (785)
Seat 7: EasilyFound (670)
Seat 9: Sauceman12 (725)

Which by ICM gives you $8.947 expectation.

If you call and lose your expectation is $0.

If you call and win you have:

Seat 1: bostero111 (555)
Seat 2: theslegde (1220)
Seat 3: schunk (630)
Seat 4: CFCRAIG (1650)
Seat 5: bull6676 (855)
Seat 6: QueenBee1201 (785)
Seat 7: EasilyFound (1580)
Seat 9: Sauceman12 (725)

Which by ICM gives you $18.6952 expectation.

So you need to win about 47.86% for this to be break even in $EV (only 42.4% to be break even in CEV).

So how often do you win?

Let's do it by group on above:

1. You are against AA and only win around 18.9%.

2. You are up against better pairs and AK and only win 36.2%.

3. You are up against decent hands, but most of which you are ahead of and you win 58.8% of the time.

4. You are up against tons of hand, and you beat most and you win you win 68.5% of the time.

5. You are up against any hand, and you beat them 77.4% of the time.

This means based on our percentages that you win:

18.9*25%+36.2*25%+58.8*25%+68.5*20%+77.4*5% = 46.045%. So it is close and is a +CEV but -$EV play at my estimates. In my mind the fact that the AA was only 25% (which is conservative in my mind based on what I've seen). Calling here is a mistake that costs you $0.34.

Note if you use my numbers from the all-in rather than the limp-reraise all in you can see that it is a clear call with JJ:
18.9*0%+36.2*20%+58.5*50%+68.5*20%+77.4*10% = 58.08% which is clearly +$EV.

But geting back to the limp-reraise all-in:

Now if you try again for you hold AK (randomly suited or not) you see that is a clear fold to as you only win 42.17%.
Now if you try again for you hold KK you see this is a clear call as you win 55.89% of the time.
Now if you try again for you hold QQ you see this is a tough borderline call as you win 49.17% of the time. Here I'd balence the fact that I might be under estimating the AA percentage with the fact that if you get knocked out early it gives you more time to play more SNG that could help your $/hr rate. So if my numbers were dead on folding QQ here is a mistake that costs -$0.25.

[Freudian]

The beauty of limping with JJ is that you can release it without much hesitation if someone puts you all in in level 1.

[ChuckyB]

That's a dude that blew his load prematurely with AA.

Your preflop raise was good. Two callers to a 15 blind (55 in the pot already)...that's good for driving folks out and getting paid off.

[Newt_Buggs]

in a $50 I fold, in a $10 I call, especially after I look up his stats on pokerprophecy and see that he has a 10% ITM.

[11t]

I fold here 100% of the time unless I have a good read and think he is bullying but that can only be done versus somebody you have played with several times. I've folded QQ in this situation and I've had people show down AK the majority of the time and once had some donk show KK.

I'd raise less preflop too.