whats your read on this overbet? $55sng

[pokerraja]

No reads. early in tourney. Im the button.
I hold (4,4) including a spade.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t970)
UTG+1 (t540)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t975)
MP3 (t970)
CO (t1385)
Button (t1290)
SB (t885)
BB (t985)

Preflop:
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t90) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t100</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t100, MP3 folds, Button calls t100, SB calls t100.

Turn: (t490) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t870 (All-in) Now what?????????

[microbet]

This is one for Irie, since we don't get to see your cards.

[adanthar]

And your hand would be...? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[lastchance]

Hero is stupid for slowplaying flopped straight/set and not raising on flop. At the same time, I doubt Hero can fold here.

[pokerraja]

damn, i have (4,4) including a spade.

[durron597]

Edit: Ok you have 44. Push the flop!!!

[sleech]

Never mind

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
damn, i have (4,4) including a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a straight sometimes and a flush reasonably often, but it's also some weird 99-ish hand or total junk pretty regularly.

I'm calling it, although I'd fold AQ and 54. You've too much of a hand to put him on the nuts right now.

edit: yeah, the dude bet the pot and got 2 callers, push the flop and it's not close

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
Not knowning you cards, fold

[/ QUOTE ]

easy jackass. i realized i totally screwed up with my converter. I edited my post, but thanks for your contributions.

[jeffraider]

I'd raise this flop for sure, and I'd probably call him given the way you played it. I just think you're ahead of too many hands he could have, and only a few beat you. The main one I'd be worried about would be a really low flush, but hey, at least you've got outs!

[quinn]

Looks like 65, 54, or 64..

He basically bet the pot on the 456 flop, second to act. A lot of players won't bet out a flopped straight like that. A flush draw is unlikely..most would just check there. A set is more likely than a straight or flush, but not as likely as two pair. The all-in bet on the turn just looks like a "I'm going to be really angry if you hit your draw" bet. It's not a reasonable bet, but a lot of people make it.

So, in order of likeliness, I would predict these cards:

1. two pair
2. a set of 4s, 5s, or 6s
3. straight
4. flush
5. one pair (most likely sixes)
6. semi-bluff (missed straight draw)
7. set of queens
8. bluff

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
damn, i have (4,4) including a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a straight sometimes and a flush reasonably often, but it's also some weird 99-ish hand or total junk pretty regularly.

I'm calling it, although I'd fold AQ and 54. You've too much of a hand to put him on the nuts right now.

edit: yeah, the dude bet the pot and got 2 callers, push the flop and it's not close

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the response. I totally agree with reraising/pushing the flop, but I decided to see the turn and go from there, at the same time I wanted to be able to get away from this hand (JUST DIDNT FEEL GOOD ABOUT IT WITH THAT FLOP) . Now I was ready to dump this hand , but the overbet looked so suspicious to me.

[lastchance]

Trying to get away with flopped sets is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID.

[pokerraja]

By the way I think pushing the flop is wrong. After seeing that flop all I could think about is dont go broke in an unraised multi-way pot. It was family (6 person) pot after all. I have position, and I wanted to see some more cards and betting patterns before I make a big decision. Is this flawed thinking?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Giving free cards on draw heavy boards with flopped sets is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
Trying to get away with flopped sets is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think it is really stupid in a 6 way pot.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I dont think it is really stupid in a 6 way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hands you are afraid of are 55, 66, 87, 73, 32. 73 and 32 are frankly unrealistic. As for the rest, that's a grand total of 22 different hands that you're behind at the moment. Even taking some Bayes' Theorem style arguments into account based on the heavy overcalling, you're really not going to be behind all that often. Two pair, overpairs, etc. will pay you. Giving a free card and having a four-straight or the flush come in will leave you where you're highly likely either to be beat or incapable of getting any more money out of anybody when still ahead. With the amount of interest that has been shown, it's likely you'll get a caller if you push on the flop. I think it's a pretty straightforward flop push when the action gets back to you, and if you don't get any callers, you still picked up a nice pot.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Trying to get away with flopped sets is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think it is really stupid in a 6 way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
With two pair this isn't stupid. With a set, this is really, really, really stupid.

There are flush draws, straight draws, overcards, overpairs, TPTK, two pair that pay you off.

Guess how many hands beat you? 5. 32, 87, 73, 66, 55.

Trying to get away from flopped sets is really dumb.

Push the flop, and it's not close.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Trying to get away with flopped sets is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think it is really stupid in a 6 way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is just as important to protect this hand in a six way pot, maybe more so because someone almost certainly has a decent draw to beat you. I recently posted a hand where I flopped a set on a flush board and got chastised by a few for playing it too slow on the flop. I thought the hand through since and realized:

If you flop a set on a dangerous board -

NO MATTER HOW DANGEROUS THE BOARD IS, it is more likely that one or more of your opponents has a good draw than that they have you beat. There are many more ways for someone to have one card that works with a scary board than two.

You have to play the hand probabilistically. Yes, the board is scary enough that you could be beat (although you have ten outs twice against the straights and even a backdoor flush draw if you get it heads up with 78 no spade, not exactly a bad spot). Set over set happens, but VERY rarely. Are you scared by J74 rainbow here? Of course not. This board isn't even that scary - 87 and flush draws? Get rid of the flush draws, don't wait to see if they get there!

The key thing is that some large % of the time (80/90) if you are facing anything to worry about it is someone with a 7, someone with 65 (who may call you but has four outs so you want him to pay), someone with a flush draw, someone with a 3. In fact, with three in ahead of you it is almost certain that you are facing at least one of these. You have to push EVERY time because nearly every time you are ahead.

If this were limit and you have this many scare cards on the turn, MAYBE you just call, because the draws won't fold anyway, and you might as well manage the pot in case you get drawn out or are already beat. But it is no limit and you can end it right here: don't see the turn and decide if you are still ahead, see the flop and know you are (likely) ahead, and ACT RIGHT NOW.

[the_joker]

I'd say 2 pair. I would call.

[__Q__]

If your going to go broke to someone that has a flush draw, you might as well put your money in before he makes it.

If you aren't willing to go broke by pushing edges, I don't see how you can be successful in STTs. The blinds rise fast in these things and you can't wait for 100 percent lock hands. Wouldn't you rather push a set on the flop, than to have to push A7os before the flop a few levels later cause you only have 4 times the BB?

[hummusx]

Why is this a push on the flop? The pot is 290 and hero has about 1200 chips left. Isn't pushing an overbet by far? I don't really get why you wouldn't make a largish raise (enough to make calling with any draw very wrong). Why go overboard? If the blinds were larger, the pot was bigger, more people had already called the flop bet, or if there was some other compelling reason to way overbet I could maybe see it. In this instance though, I don't understand why you would want to push.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this a push on the flop? The pot is 290 and hero has about 1200 chips left. Isn't pushing an overbet by far? I don't really get why you wouldn't make a largish raise (enough to make calling with any draw very wrong). Why go overboard? If the blinds were larger, the pot was bigger, more people had already called the flop bet, or if there was some other compelling reason to way overbet I could maybe see it. In this instance though, I don't understand why you would want to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

My 2 cents:

Since he has everyone in the hand covered, his stack size isn't important. Given the stack sizes of his opponents, any reasonable raise (say to 500) pot commits them anyway, so he might as well push. Any opponent with a made hand will think of calling a push as equivalent to calling a smaller raise, but any draw might get away easy if the turn is a card Hero can't bet but that happens not to make the draws hand.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]

My 2 cents:

Since he has everyone in the hand covered, his stack size isn't important. Given the stack sizes of his opponents, any reasonable raise (say to 500) pot commits them anyway, so he might as well push. Any opponent with a made hand will think of calling a push as equivalent to calling a smaller raise, but any draw might get away easy if the turn is a card Hero can't bet but that happens not to make the draws hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get why you'd need to bet 500 into this pot. If you make it 500, the original bettor is getting 800:400 to call. You could easily make this 700:300 or even 650:250 which is still worse than 3:1. I guess if they have a straight flush draw they'd be getting good odds to call. And I don't think you have to think in terms of being pot committed if you put in 350 out of your 1275 stack. It sucks, but you can get away from it and still have your starting stack at level 1.

[pokerraja]

The BB had (3,10) spades. He flopped an open-ended straight draw plus a flush draw. He hit his 10 high flush on turn. My plan of getting away from this hand would of worked perfectly if I didn't read into his overbet. Of course I called his all-in and didnt get any help on the river.

By the way, I do understand why you say I should push the flop hard. But in this case, im sure I would of lost the money either way. I just felt that one of the 6 limpers hit the flop harder than I did. This is not my standard play.

[LearnedfromTV]

500 is raising the pot (well, 490). Very reasonable, and with a set on a straight and flush draw board I want to overcharge the single draw in case someone is in there with both draws. My point about pot-committedness was about the Villains, not the Hero. This more than half the stack of any of the others in the hand. Anyone who calls that is only folding to another bet if they are on a draw that gets to see the river and misses. So every made hand he wants to call probably calls a push as often as a smaller raise, but a push discourages the draws.

I think you have to think about the way the hand plays on the turn. Even if you charge the draw enough in terms of immediate odds, the implied odds are there for him to call since you'll pay off often enough. The other issue is that if the first guy calls, the second guy can come with any decent draw.

I don't like callers here because there are too many cards on the turn that make your life difficult. Any spade, 2, 3, 7, 8 may or may not have hit your caller(s), and he could either bluff you off your hand or get paid off, depending on which gamble you want to take.

If a good turn card comes, you push then anyway. I don't think the few extra chips you win when you get a draw to call 350 who wouldn't have called 500 or a push AND a nice turn card comes is enough to make up for going broke or getting pushed off the best hand.