AA on dangerous flop...how do you play this?

[GrekeHaus]

This is a hand that was played at the 55s. Villian is relatively unknown, but has played a bit loose in the early stages.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1310)
UTG+1 (t940)
MP1 (t1020)
MP2 (t880)
MP3 (t690)
CO (t885)
Button (t2225)
Hero (t1040)
BB (t1010)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t200.

Flop: (t650) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t720 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

[adanthar]

Very quickly calls his queen.

[freemoney]

you only have to be good here like 35% of the time, instacall.

[Freudian]

Tricky. At first I wanted to fold, but when thinking about it I think you are ahead more than 1/3 of the time here and thus would call.

[freemoney]

i think if i had to be good here 55% of the time id call also.

[Rex Ruthless]

what could he have???

KQ - he slowplays that for sure
Kx - I think he slowplays that as well
Qx - most likely I think
small pair - also likely
flush draw - possible

I call thinking your two pair is best.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
Very quickly calls his queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
what could he have???

KQ - he slowplays that for sure
Kx - I think he slowplays that as well
Qx - most likely I think
small pair - also likely
flush draw - possible

I call thinking your two pair is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, you're the hero. Except you have the hands mentioned above, what do you do on the flop?

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what could he have???

KQ - he slowplays that for sure
Kx - I think he slowplays that as well
Qx - most likely I think
small pair - also likely
flush draw - possible

I call thinking your two pair is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, you're the hero. Except you have the hands mentioned above, what do you do on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're the hero and you have any of these hands, I don't think you're putting in such a big raise preflop.

[SuitedSixes]

You're right, I didn't mean the X to be rag. So tell me about:

AK
KQ

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right, I didn't mean the X to be rag. So tell me about:

AK
KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

With KQ I still wouldn't put in such a big raise. With AK, I would check here to trap.

Of course, your opponent may not be thinking about what you have. If he actually has a king, but thinks you might be trapping, why would he go all in here? I can't think of a single hand I would have as the villian where I would push here. Thus, my guess is that the villian is thinking:

a) He is afraid of the King, so my Queen is probably good here
b) He is afraid of the King, so my lower pair is good and it might make him fold a bigger pair.
c) I can represent the King and make him fold
d) Me likey push!

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very quickly calls his queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

He means your AA is better than his Q.

[CaptSensible]

The way my luck has been going I go all in with everything
here except the boat. I would be worried about the flush draw if i flopped the set of K's and don't want to give him room to call his draw hand. If i'm holding the AA I call his all in.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what could he have???

KQ - he slowplays that for sure
Kx - I think he slowplays that as well
Qx - most likely I think
small pair - also likely
flush draw - possible

I call thinking your two pair is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, you're the hero. Except you have the hands mentioned above, what do you do on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]
Very quickly calls his queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

...or naked ace/under pair.

EZ call.

Luminous

[GrekeHaus]

That was pretty much what I thought. If the villian has a hand like KJ or KT, I doubt he's worried about you having a better one since all the chips will end up in the middle either way. Since I don't think he would have a King here most of the time, we are likely WAY ahead of any other hand.

Another interesting aspect of the hand which hasn't been discussed is whether or not the hero's check was correct. Thoughts?

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
what could he have???

KQ - he slowplays that for sure
Kx - I think he slowplays that as well
Qx - most likely I think
small pair - also likely
flush draw - possible

I call thinking your two pair is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has KQ there is no need to do anything... slow play, but if he has Kx, Qx he might be worried about flush... I would be... and he wants to take the pot down. He also could have a lower PP. Regardless you have to call this... you're ahead most of the time.

[MegaBet]

Definitely call. Even if he has a king (unlikely), you still have 2 outs /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]
whether or not the hero's check was correct. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somewhat player dependent (and you won't know this early in the tournament). But, yes, check is good here.

Luminous

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Very quickly calls his queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh.

I was going to say, "Call his AQ immediately."

[tminus]

this is exactly the flop you dont want
get the hell out of there

[lastchance]

You are not playing good poker right now. This and the other hand you posted = insanity.

[jrbick]

...calls and it's not close. That flop should make you VERY happy since it is VERY unlikely he holds a K at this point. He's either pushed a draw or a Q. My $.02

Going to finish thread now.

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
this is exactly the flop you dont want
get the hell out of there

[/ QUOTE ]

The only worse advice I could think of was "fold your AA PF"

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
Another interesting aspect of the hand which hasn't been discussed is whether or not the hero's check was correct. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that it's imperative to getting opponents chips in the middle. Right away I am not thinking K as one of his holdings so let's give him a chance to bluff at this. The only thing I can think of that's weaker than a check (thus inducing the bluff) is a minimum-bet. But I don't like that since an F-draw (which you're ahead of RIGHT NOW) calls seeing a cheap turn-card and a hand that has completely missed is more than likely folding rather than raising against it. Maybe it's 50/50 (chances of inducing a bluff by checking or min. betting), but I think it's more like 70/30.

[tminus]

i think foe has a K, how is that poor poker?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
i think foe has a K, how is that poor poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see anyone that would minraise PF pushing trips here in some weird reverse bluff.

The average Party player checks trips 99% of the time, and I don't think I've ever seen _anyone_ flop a boat and then push over a flop check.

Let's assume the villain is rational, and wants to extract maximum value from their hand. If you flop trips or a boat, you certainly don't want to blow your opponent out of the water by *pushing* over a check.

There may be Party players out there capable of making a feigned steal bluff on a flop like this, but I haven't met him yet.

Against most players, I play flopped trips fast, but not *this* fast.

[tminus]

good point, ill think about this...

[Toonces]

I had this hand yesterday...

Hero has AA in round 1 of STT in the big blind.

MP1 calls $10. MP3 raises to $40. CO calls $40. <font color="red"> Hero raises to $180 </font> MP1, MP3 and CO call.

Flop is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero ???

[MegaBet]

That's super nasty, because you can almost guarentee one or more of those 3 guys holding a king. The only way to play this, I reckon, is to hope the king holder(s) slow play (which they should - no straight or flush draws) and you hit a miracle ace. Otherwise, this is one of the few situations where you have to throw away your aces if someone bets big.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think foe has a K, how is that poor poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see anyone that would minraise PF pushing trips here in some weird reverse bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain's play is brilliant if he suspects Hero is holding, AA which I think is fairly obvious based on pre-flop betting, being as how no one seems capable of laying down AA on a flop . . . because it is the best (and most indestructable) starting hand in hold 'em.

If you don't lay down AA on this flop, with this action, when DO you?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
good point, ill think about this...

[/ QUOTE ]

An additional thought:

Run this scenario out against his possible holdings a million times, and you are ahead here a hell of a lot more than you are behind. (IE- It's +EV to push.)

However, the paradox is that a STT does not go on for a million hands, or even 100. So it's a balancing act between survival and +EV situations.

My personal taste is to continue to make the +EV plays, and know that overtime, my decision will be right the majority of the time, but I can understand if someone doesn't agree with it in the confines of the SNG structure.

[tminus]

and you still have 750 chips left, not great but enough to make your moves this early in the game....blinds are still only 50

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

I think villain's play is brilliant if he suspects Hero is holding, AA which I think is fairly obvious based on pre-flop betting

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to say something similar in my first post, but decided I still don't like the push if I have made trip Ks and I put my opponent on AA, because the board is scary enough to make some people muck to a push.

I have faith in my ability to stack my opponent rather than blowing them out with a push.

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't lay down AA on this flop, with this action, when DO you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right or wrong, at the levels I play at (22-55), I have never folded AA post flop. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif It seems to work OK for me about 80% of the time.

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]

If you don't lay down AA on this flop, with this action, when DO you?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't at most levels vs. most opponents. That's part of the whole reason these games are beatable.

Luminous

[11t]

Insta-call.

I like the check though, but when he dumps his stack that is a sign of weakness IMO and you gotta jump on it.

[bradha]

I've folded AA post flop quite recently - flop was 3 clubs, I bet and was called; turn was another club... Opponent goes all in, and I muck. Anytime there are 9 cards which would have me drawing dead if my opponent just has 1 of them, seems much scarier than a pair on the board.

[tminus]

I can see a "stack dump" being a sign of weakness in other situations but remember, foe OPENED preflop...this is a messy flop for him too and probably wants to push out anyone chasing a flush. Hero reraised preflop, that screams AA or KK so the push may be him trying to prevent our hero from catching another ace too