QUESTION: Implied Odds

[imashyboi]

Say your in the CO with 3 players who limped. You are holding AQo and raised(not sure if this is the right play but lets assume that I made the correct move by raising). Both blinds call including the other 3 players. Total of 6 players to the Flop with the pot being 12SBs. Flop comes:

KT9r

SB checks, BB bets out, limper1 folds, limper2 folds, and limper3 check raises. You have 4 solid outs(J's) to win the 15SBs in the pot.

Now, lets assume SB folds. Is my ESP 18SBs = 9BBs. The reason how I got this number is, BB might call the raise since he is already in making the pot 16SBs. The person who raised is probably going to bet again on the Turn putting in another 2SBs on the Turn making the total pot size on the Turn 18SBs = 9BBs. Am I thinking this correctly?

I've been talking with several players regarding this situation, they argue that BB could reraise and ruin everything forcing me to put 1 more SBs in the pot. Even though he makes it 3bets, I still have to call since I am getting enough odds to chase. This would indicate BB to have a very strong hand, from a set/2 pair/top pair w/A or K kicker. With that said, ESP and Implied Odds(IOS) works perfectly if your closing the action. If you are in between both active players, you are risking yourself to get c/raised. I'm sure there are factors to this, if BB is passive then a reraise is probably less likely to happen.

Once all the betting are done on the Flop, do I recount the pot size on the Turn to calculate my ESP on the River? I'm a little confused about this part because if you call on the Flop, those bets you put into the pots are no longer yours. Since all the bets are included in the Turn round, don't you have to account everything inside the pot to consider your ESP on the River.

Let me know if I am thinking this correctly. Thanks

[Siegmund]

I find it is easiest to consider one street at a time.

You are deciding now whether to pay to see the turn, and if you miss, you'll decide again later whether to pay to see the river.

On the flop, you are hoping to put in 2 small bets to try to win 16 or 18. If it gets reraised or capped, you may find yourself putting in 3 to win 18 or 4 to win 20.

How much do you think your high ace is worth? On a gutshot to the nuts you want to be getting 10:1 to continue; you can reasonably call your hand 5 or 6 outs since AK or AT might have raised preflop.

If you don't think it will be reraised, you get 8:1 or 9:1 (if SB stays in); if it does get reraised or capped you get only 6:1 or 5:1 and are paying too much to stay in.

On a blank turn, you will face the same decision again. There will be between 9 and 12 big bets in the pot. If it's one bet to you, you'll be getting 10:1 to 13:1 odds and want to see the river. If it's bet and raised to you, you get between 13:2 and 16:2 and have to worry about reraises again.

Bottom line, this hand is a call against a BB who rarely 3-bets, but a fold against an agressive or unknown villain.

[imashyboi]

I find it easier and more accurate to count each street as well. Calculating two future rounds sounds inaccurate since lots of things can happen when the Turn card flops.

Since there are currently 18SBs in the Flop, if I suspect BB to be aggressive he'll probably make it to 3bets. If he's passive then my expectation of 9BB is acurate as long as SB folds. If BB reraises, I'll be forced to call 3SBs to win 21SBs(18SB now, 2SBs more from BB, 1SB more to raiser) or about 7-1.

Once I call the 3SB's, the total pot size on the Turn will be 24SBs = 12BBs. Here is my dilemma. Do you include the 3SBs you put in on the Flop when counting your implied odds on the River? I am getting 7-1 now and probably 2BBs more from my remaining opponents making my expected pot size to 9-1. What about the 3SBs I invested from calling the Flop, do I include that when counting my implied odds on the River? That's another 1.5BB which makes my total pot size to 10.5-1 and the right price to call.

Since I am only a 5-1 dog to hit my 4 outer on the Turn, is calling here the right play? I am getting more than 5-1 on the Flop. I'm guessing once I called the original raise I'll have to call one more since I'm getting enough odds. I'm confused because there are two odds to look at, 1st is the odds with two cards to come and the 2nd one with one card to come. I am getting enough odds to chase my 4 outer on the Flop, but I might be a little short on the pot odds on the Turn with 1 card to come depending who bets first and how much there are in the pot.

I can't even count my A as an out if someone makes it 3bets. I am probably against a real hand and the only way for me to win would be my 4 outer. Even if I hit my A, someone could hit a straight or two pair against me, making me lose.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

Once I call the 3SB's, the total pot size on the Turn will be 24SBs = 12BBs. Here is my dilemma. Do you include the 3SBs you put in on the Flop when counting your implied odds on the River?


[/ QUOTE ]
By the time you get to the turn, the 3 sbs you put in on the flop are in the pot - along with the money you put in preflop -- if you bet and get raised, the money you initially put in on the turn is included too!! the original donator is not significant, as soon as it's bet it belongs to the pot, they are included in your pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]

Since I am only a 5-1 dog to hit my 4 outer on the Turn

[/ QUOTE ]

if you have 4 outs on the turn, there are 42 non-outs, so you are are a 42-4, or 10.5-1 dog.


it will often be the case that you will have odds to draw on the flop, and not on the turn. This is very common and you will just fold the turn in these situations. This will be very common with hands like overcards and gutshot straight draws . You just need to count your odds, compare to your pot odds, and make a decision, street by street.

[Catt]

"Implied Odds" is really just current pot odds, plus the additional bets you expect to win from your opponents on later streets when you hit.

I'm not following completely your question or your example (and I don't know what ESP as you're using it is), so I am going to simplify your example somewhat to make the point clear: BB bets, MP raises, there are 16 SBs in the pot when action is on you. You are confident that BB will not three-bet but will call one more bet to call MP's raise; you assign no value to your A outs. To "properly" call with just your gutshot, you really want 10.75 to 1 (or, since you're forced to call 2 bets, you want 21.5 to 2). The pot is only offering you 17 SBs (the 16 currently there plus the SB BB will put in to call MP's raise). To "properly" make this call based on pot odds alone, you'd need 4.5 additional SBs in the pot. And here is where implied odds come in to play: if you actually hit your 4-outer on the turn, do you think that you can win an additional 4.5 SBs (2.25 BBs) from your opponents? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps BB will check the turn, MP will bet (1 BB), you will call and hope BB overcalls (another BB), or you will raise and hope that BB calls (another 2 BBs) or at least MP calls your raise (another BB). You hope at least one player will call your river bet. The point is, you need to earn another 2.25 BBs in some way to make your flop call "correct."

All this goes out the window on the turn when you miss -- once again you'll be faced with a decision to call or not call the expected bet, based on immediate pot odds and/or implied odds (but note that you have only one more street to collect bets to make your implied odds) to hit your gutshot. The odds situation on the flop has nothing to do with your turn decision -- all the prior money is now part of the pot.

It may be helpful to think of "implied odds" as "borrowing" future bets you reasonably expect to win when you do hit your hand, imagining them already contributed to the pot, and then determining if you imagination-enhanced flop pot offers sufficient odds to call the flop bets to you. Hope that helps.

[imashyboi]

Thanks for the responses. The more I'm reading this, the more I am understanding the concept. EPS = Expected Pot Size which derived from author King Yao.

I think you misread what I wrote on my first post. There are 6 players Pre-Flop with 1 raise making the total pot to 12SBs.

FLOP:(12SBs)
BB bets out(13SB), 2 folds, MP raises(15SB), SB folds(15SB)
Hero force to call 2-cold(17SB)
((I'm calling here because I am only a 5-1 dog to hit my 4 outer on the Turn and I'm getting well over 18-1(9-1) with implied odds. I included another 1BB from the MP because he's likely to bet again after making the raise on the Flop, making the total implied odds on the Turn from 8-1 to 9-1))
BB calls(18SB)

The thought process on the Turn if I don't hit is to recalculate everything starting from the Turn. Convert all SBs to BBs.

TURN:(9BBs) - Blank
BB checks(9BB), MP bets(10BB), Hero calls(11BB)
BB calls(12BB)

Although I need about 11-1 to call here, I am really close. I am getting about 12-1 if BB calls, MP will probably bet again on the River. The River doesn't really matter since your expectiting to win if the last 4 J's hit, bet if they both check to you and you hit the A, or fold.

Am I thinking this correctly? I assume that I am but I want a quick check up. Its probably a different scenario if BB reraises

[Catt]

I just got King Yao's book a few days ago and plan on reading it thoroughly two weeks from now while on vacation -- I've skimmed some of it and it looks like a solid read. I would have recognized DIPO but not EPS just yet /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
((I'm calling here because I am only a 5-1 dog to hit my 4 outer on the Turn and I'm getting well over 18-1(9-1) with implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's where the misunderstanding may lay. You are not a 5:1 dog to hit your 4-outer, you are a 10.75:1 dog to hit on the turn (4 cards of 47 remaining). You are roughly a 5:1 dog to hit your 4-outer on the turn or the river, but this assumes that you will see the river.

If you're trying to figure out what your odds are when you're seeing all five board cards (most refer to these odds as "effective odds" though I am not sure Yao does), then you need to make some estimate of what the turn action looks like. And the more estimates you make about future actions, the less certain your analysis becomes (for example, BB could hit a favorable card on the turn and lead into MP, MP could raise, etc.). If we assume that BB calls the flop raise, MP bets the turn, then we are going to have to call 2 BBs (the 2 SBs on the flop because of MP's flop raise, plus the 1 BB on the turn from MP's expected turn bet), and we're doing so in order to win a pot that is expected to be 10 or 11 BBs before any river action (depending on whether BB calls the turn or not) -- we're getting about 5:1 on about a 5:1 shot over two streets.

All of this changes of course if the bettting is different from what we expect. BB could reraise the flop; MP could cap it (we're not happy with our flop call then!). Or BB could lead the turn and MP could raise (or BB hits but checkraises, trapping us for 2 bets on the turn). Again, there are a lot of variables that make our estimates not much more than educated guesses.

With the exception of a strong flush draw (with which we will almost always have the odds to see the river in a 6-handed pre-flop hand), I think you'd be better off just thinking about odds on a street-by-street basis. Especially with a gutshot where we might have the pot or implied odds to peel a card on the flop but very often will not have the odds to see the river once the bets double on the turn, I think you're probably just better off taking it one street at a time.

In your hand, I think the flop call is pretty close -- 2 BBs is certainly possible to make up when we hit the turn, but the possibility that BB 3-bets must influence our estimate of how many bets we're going to have to put in to see the turn.

Anyway - I rambled on enough. I hope this explanation helps.

[chief444]

Don't forget you need to subtract your own bets back out when considering any decision relative to the final pot. In other words, your own future bets don't count towards your implied odds now. And actually, your own future bets work against the implied odds.

As for the example you gave, I'd give strong consideration to a 3-bet.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget you need to subtract your own bets back out when considering any decision relative to the final pot. In other words, your own future bets don't count towards your implied odds now. And actually, your own future bets work against the implied odds.

As for the example you gave, I'd give strong consideration to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The combination of implied odds and reverse implied odds give you your effective odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're talking about this here, and I think it's makes sense to my feeble brain.

[imashyboi]

It's a good book by the way, I haven't finished it since I am trying to grasp all the information he's providing. There are tons of things in the book so read it slowly.

So with the simulated sitation I pointed out on my earlier post, assuming that everything is constant, calling would be profitable compared to folding. I am only adding 1 future round when calculating my implied odds since I believe this is the most accurate way to do it.

The obvious scenario when calling could be wrong is when there is a reraise on the Flop or a raise on the Turn. After calling two-called on the Flop however, you'll have to call the extra bet. If there is a raise on the Turn, I don't think you'll get enough odds to get the 11-1 you need to chase. With more aggressive or unkown players, I might fold, but if the opponents are passive then calling would be more profitable.

I think the situation where I am having problems with the most is thinking ahead after the Flop. I tend to call almost 90% on the Flop when I have a decent hand to play with. Even if I have a small pair I'll call the Flop as long as I am closing or close to closing the action(1 player to act after me). Lots of hands you can call on the Flop isn't profitable to call on the Turn.

[Catt]

I just quickly read a short section in Yao's book in which he discusses pot odds, implied odds, and estimated pot size (EPS). You should understand that Yao's decision to focus on EPS makes implied odds redundant -- not because he's saying that implied odds aren't important, but because EPS itself is an estimate of implied odds. The example he gives is 6 BBs and 1 bet to you on the turn. You are confident that Villain calls a bet on the river if you hit. The EPS is 7 BBs (the 6 BBs at stake in the pot, plus the 1 additional BB Villain will pay on the river -- note you are not counting your bets on the turn and river since you just get these bets back when you win). Using the terminolgy of pot odds and implied odds, we'd say that your pot odds on calling the turn are 6:1 but your implied odds are 7:1 because you expect to earn another bet on the river when you hit your draw.

Yao largely does away with the distinction between pot odds and implied odds and asks you to focus on what he calls EPS (which in reality is the same as implied odds). So you may be a bit confused in trying to reconcile both implied odds and EPS when in reality they are the same thing.

All that said, I think it is difficult to accurately gauge, on the flop, what your implied odds / EPS will be when the betting is all done at the river -- too many variables over two streets of poker. As Yao writes himself on pg 85 in reference to using the DIPO method and EPS on the flop: "Do not go further than the Turn when counting the EPS." Just stick to a street by street analysis and you'll have less confusion, I think.

[imashyboi]

Hey, I understand what he meant when he wrote Implied Odds and ESP. They both mean the same thing but said differently. I figured that counting these street by street is probably the best and accurate way. The only part I was having problems with is whether to include the money you put in from the Flop when counting the next ESP on the Turn.

From what I learned, after all Flop bettings are done, all the money that are inside the pot are now up for grabs. On the Turn, everything starts over again. Start counting your pot odds and readjust them using ESP on the Turn. Do I have this right?

I think when Yao said: "Do not go further than the Turn when counting the EPS." He meant, don't count pass the Turn when you're using ESP on the Flop. If you plan on using ESP again on the Turn since the card was a blank, do so by recalculating everything including the curret bets to get your EPS.