Ever heard of this? (action-oriented post)

[Irieguy]

This post has nothing to do with my poker ability or lack thereof.

I have some game-theory based ideas about SNGs that led me to think of an interesting proposition bet.

I'm going to play 100 $5+1 SNGs on Party(skin) with a sticky-note covering my hole cards. I will never look at my hole cards. Ever.

I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive.

Again, this has nothing to do with me or my ability... I'm just a bot here that knows a little about bluffing.

I don't want to run an experiment, because I don't want to play 1000 of them. So, I'll have to settle for a proposition bet. That way, while the results will be almost entirely uninteresting... at least it will be fun.

Irieguy

[KingDan]

Does your ROI take into consideration the rake? If not I think you can do it.

[gildwulf]

How would we know that you were covering your hole-cards, and how would we know what your actual ROI is?

If there was some way to figure this out I would take $300 on it.

[wulfheir]

I remember someone doing this a while back. I thought it was entertaining, especially when he foled AA. I'll be watching.

[gumpzilla]

It's an interesting idea. However, between 20% rake, an inability to use big hands early to expand your stack, and an audience that probably calls a little too much until the bubble itself, I think this might be a little tricky. I'd lay $50 that you can't do it. Even money, I assume.

EDIT: I trust there are no rakeback loopholes here. That would alter my decision, perhaps.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
How would we know that you were covering your hole-cards, and how would we know what your actual ROI is?

If there was some way to figure this out I would take $300 on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whomever ends up taking this action will likely know me, or at least know of my financial dealings with forum members... so this won't be a concern.

Irieguy

[valenzuela]

If I had the money I would sure accept the bet.( rakeback not included) Im willing to bet $25 anyone else wants to join??
pd: irieguy can prove he didnt look at his cards by sending us the HHs.

[gildwulf]

I'll take $25 (including the rake and excluding rakeback).

PM me when you get started.

[wulfheir]

Here's a link to The Blind Challenge (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1642084&page=&view=&s b=5&o=) thread

[lastchance]

You can't bluff $6 players. Value-betting is very, very good, much better than in the $215's. I don't think you can do it.

Guess you're trying to fold ITM then...

[valenzuela]

Ehhh I want to gather $300 to bet against Irie, do you get me? Also Irie how many tables?
edit: once irie confirms he actually wants to bet, I will gather enough stakers.

[protoverus]

OT

Gildwulf....what's up with the Bat Cave avatar? I live close to there.

Be well.

Proto

[fluorescenthippo]

i would take this bet, but i need the money for my bankroll. goodluck though, i cant wait for the results

i believe this would be profitable if it was a 5+.50 however. or at least much easier

[Shilly]

I'm guessing that the first two or three levels are going to be pretty boring...

[freemoney]

lol i think i will take this bet.

[tminus]

interesting, a buddy of mine talks about this too
makes sense seeing how i usually dont play anything until level 4 where i have to push anyway...

[Matt Walker]

Haha, this is awsome. Give me all 300 of it if you are including rake in your ROI as I'm assuming you are. If nothing else ,it should be fun.

[maddog2030]

Breaking News: Irieguy folds AA preflop. Details at 11.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm going to play 100 $5+1 SNGs on Party(skin) with a sticky-note covering my hole cards. I will never look at my hole cards. Ever.

I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is doable. However, I think this is much more likely to be +ROI at the 11s with the 10% vig instead of 20% vig.

And if you were to play them at night/weekend I think you might *still* be able to fold into "pushing any two" situtations and pull out a + ROI.

[raptor517]

ill take the bet craig. the 20% rake will be too much to overcome imo. holla

[treeofwisdom7]

ive never beaten the 6's but i get 30% roi in the 11's

im in for this bet 25 maybe more pm me. when it comes to push and fold you gotta know what you have at the 5's because they call more often at anyother lvl

[Irieguy]

Ok, it is booked.

I'll post results at the midway point.

Irieguy

[raptor517]

i expect a call or else i wont feel loved. holla

[Irieguy]

Just to clarify:

Raptor is the only one I'm giving action to. If I lose, he gets $300. I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify:

Raptor is the only one I'm giving action to. If I lose, he gets $300. I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

dude seriously stop being an @sshole. i would take this bet and send you the money first.

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify:

Raptor is the only one I'm giving action to. If I lose, he gets $300. I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

dude seriously stop being an @sshole. i would take this bet and send you the money first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then do it Mr. Wisdom.

Luminous

[Unoriginalname]

I'm going to go with what many of the other posters stated. I doubt you will pull a positive ROI simply because the rake is just too brutal.

Say the $5 STTs had a $0.50 rake (I think everyone agrees this is what the rake SHOULD be). If you pulled a 9% ROI over 100 games, you would be +$49.50 (550 x 1.09). Since the rake is $1 and not $0.50, that kind of performace would put you -$0.50.

$5+1 tables really suck. You could probably pull a positive ROI at the $10+1's though.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify:

Raptor is the only one I'm giving action to. If I lose, he gets $300. I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

dude seriously stop being an @sshole. i would take this bet and send you the money first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of you kids are so funny. I post a prop bet for $300 and a player accepts. Now, I'm an unfair a-hole because I won't take piss-ant action from random noobs.

I'm glad I posted my clarification. The bet is now booked, and Off The Board.

Irieguy

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify:

Raptor is the only one I'm giving action to. If I lose, he gets $300. I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

dude seriously stop being an @sshole. i would take this bet and send you the money first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of you kids are so funny. I post a prop bet for $300 and a player accepts. Now, I'm an unfair a-hole because I won't take piss-ant action from random noobs.

I'm glad I posted my clarification. The bet is now booked, and Off The Board.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I love you craig.

[Unoriginalname]

Please post some updates publicly. I'm very curious to see what happens.

[treeofwisdom7]

you missed my point. i called you an @sshole cuz you diss me when i would have put up a bet in the first place.


"ive never beaten the 6's but i get 30% roi in the 11's"
"all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI"



it doesnt matter now. just show some class even if you think your better than us

good luck

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]
you missed my point. i called you an @sshole cuz you diss me when i would have put up a bet in the first place.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

im in for this bet 25 maybe more pm me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your problem is twofold....you said 25 (far cry from being willing to put up 300, isn't it?)....and you also posted after Raptor.

The good news is that like everyone, you most likely will get to see the results for free!!

Luminous

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
ill take the bet craig. the 20% rake will be too much to overcome imo. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be very surprised if you don't win. Without the rake I think there is a very good chance Irie could have positive ROI simply by folding 95% of hands (and going all-in against weak players with a decent enough frequency late).

[microbet]

Wow big response. I think there is a fair chances you can beat the $6s without playing a hand. I tried a small sample once with the play money games and (small sample of course) but I crushed without playing a hand. Only like 1 out of 8 OOTM.

[adanthar]

Hahah, this is gonna be awesome.

I don't think you'll make it but I do think it'll be close enough to be positive at the 11's.

[NegativeEV]

How many tables are you playing at once? If you are 1-3 tabling I will take the treeofwisdom action and exonerate you from being such an axxhole. If you are running 8-tables, then I'm out and you're just an asshxxle like all the noobs say.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps they're only taking the $25 bet because, you know, you're just some dude on the internet who claims to have a good ROI.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
How many tables are you playing at once? If you are 1-3 tabling I will take the treeofwisdom action and exonerate you from being such an axxhole. If you are running 8-tables, then I'm out and you're just an asshxxle like all the noobs say.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to play one table at a time and try very hard. My game-theory based approach is not what everybody thinks it will be.

Also, in case you want some more side action: if TOW takes you up on the bet and I win, the odds against him paying you are 10-1... and I know 3 people that will book that for you.

Iriguy
who thinks this forum is finally getting fun again

[Freudian]

How about you post the tables you play on so we can spectate. They are probably worth watching for comedy value alone, but it would be interesting trying to figure out your approach.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Perhaps they're only taking the $25 bet because, you know, you're just some dude on the internet who claims to have a good ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

to be honest, even if i never met irieguy i would still probably make this bet. i will also ask to see random hand histories for my entertainment. in any case, i would trust irie with probably more than 10x the suggested bet. even if i wasnt there watching him play. holla

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, in case you want some more side action: if TOW takes you up on the bet and I win, the odds against him paying you are 10-1... and I know 3 people that will book that for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will take $300 action with TOW. The above gives me a little concern so if we pick a neutral party we can each deposit $300 at the outset of the bet. I have a few 2ers that I would be comfortable with holding the $600 for the duration of the bet- lemme know TOW.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

to be honest, even if i never met irieguy i would still probably make this bet. i will also ask to see random hand histories for my entertainment. in any case, i would trust irie with probably more than 10x the suggested bet. even if i wasnt there watching him play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps he has cultivated his persona in preparation for a big score. And this is it.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
How about you post the tables you play on so we can spectate. They are probably worth watching for comedy value alone, but it would be interesting trying to figure out your approach.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, fwiw, i konw the strategy he is using, and it is quite a bit different than most of you would imagine. i really think he will fail in his endeavors, but i wish him the best. will certainly be a fun bet if nothing else. holla

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Perhaps they're only taking the $25 bet because, you know, you're just some dude on the internet who claims to have a good ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

to be honest, even if i never met irieguy i would still probably make this bet. i will also ask to see random hand histories for my entertainment. in any case, i would trust irie with probably more than 10x the suggested bet. even if i wasnt there watching him play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not surprised YOU would, Mr. Action. Mr. 12 Tabler. Mr. Pai-Gow/Blackjack Master. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

to be honest, even if i never met irieguy i would still probably make this bet. i will also ask to see random hand histories for my entertainment. in any case, i would trust irie with probably more than 10x the suggested bet. even if i wasnt there watching him play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps he has cultivated his persona in preparation for a big score. And this is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So mom and pops moved into the neighborhood. Established trust. For 48 years. All so they could steal Jerry's sneakers?

Apparently so.

[microbet]

I'd be willing to bet up to $300 that I can beat Irie's ROI. No offense to Irie - this is just for fun - and no offense to people in the $6s - I'm not betting to have a positive ROI.

I reserve the right to not wager with someone I don't really know, at least not without some kind of escrow.

[Madd]

A few months ago I tried it myself in a 20+2 and a 30+3. It was fun, especially when one of my pushes got called and I accidentally held KK.
However, I don't think it is possible to pull a positive ROI, especially in the 5s with the higher rake. You will be called no matter what and you can almost never call when somebody else pushes.

[skipperbob]

I spent $200 LARGE on your education & this is the result /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif
THIS MAKES BABY JESUS CRY
/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't want 35 PMs from all the jokers that said they have a 30% ROI, but only have enough money to book $25 of action.

Irieguy


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Perhaps they're only taking the $25 bet because, you know, you're just some dude on the internet who claims to have a good ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

to be honest, even if i never met irieguy i would still probably make this bet. i will also ask to see random hand histories for my entertainment. in any case, i would trust irie with probably more than 10x the suggested bet. even if i wasnt there watching him play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not surprised YOU would, Mr. Action. Mr. 12 Tabler. Mr. Pai-Gow/Blackjack Master. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i AM the master. thankyou for pointing it out though. i need that reassurance sometimes. holla

[lastchance]

Are you going to post your HH's? Please do.

[Irieguy]

Meh.

This is hard. And boring. It's only 10, but I don't like the way it feels so far. At least I can't tell if I'm running badly or not (I've only watched 1 HH in the replayer.)

1st: 0
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
OOTM: 8

I was hoping for more hands like this:

***** Hand History for Game 2249418256 *****
NL Hold'em $5 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13330281 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, June 23, 01:11:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 35304 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Irie ( $3313 )
Seat 4: MizzHolla ( $2065 )
Seat 5: Atchydog ( $1992 )
Seat 6: NY_Henri ( $630 )
Trny:13330281 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irie [ 7h 8d ]
NY_Henri folds.
Irie is all-In [3313]
MizzHolla folds.
Atchydog is all-In [1692]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, Tc, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
Atchydog shows [ Jd, Ad ] high card ace.
Irie shows [ 7h, 8d ] a straight, four to eight.
Irie wins 1321 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, four to eight.
Irie wins 4134 chips from the main pot with a straight, four to eight.
Atchydog finished in fourth place.
Atchydog has left the table.


This was the 4th one I played, and I found it ironic that Raptor's famous AJ thread could have saved Atchydog his untimely demise.

It was doubly ironic that the player that beat me HU was named "holla."

Irieguy

[eastbay]

I think it's a pretty fun experiment. If it fails miserably, that's probably at least as interesting as a +2% ROI or whatever you were expecting.

If you were a real glutten for punishment, I'd say repeat the experiment at $55 and compare results.

Are you going to reveal your top secret game theory strategy or is that proprietary? And why is it so different from what we all know it should be, more or less?

eastbay

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]

Iriguy
who thinks this forum is finally getting fun again

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed! I like the challenge--gl to you irie, but as 4317 posters have said before me, that rake is killer.

looking forward to the "Irie's Guide to beating the 6s...blind" post

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[igotBlackJak]

i hope you have chat on... 78 can sure piss ppl off, especially the chatty ppl at 5+1s..

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you going to reveal your top secret game theory strategy or is that proprietary? And why is it so different from what we all know it should be, more or less?

eastbay


[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't decided yet. It's not so much a top secret strategy as simply a way of weighting particular tactics in such a manner as to allow yourself maximum potential from those tactics... at the expense of all other tactics that have anything to do with the cards you hold.

Personally, I think that losing less than the rake would be a pretty dramatic statement about the tactics themselves... so i'm not likely to discuss much if I do at least that well. I'll simply let the post-game analysis focus on the fact that I talked smack and got pwned by Raptor.

Irieguy

[AleoMagus]

There is no way you are gonna win this bet...

Actually, let me rephrase that. You might get lucky and win this bet, but there is no way that a blind strategy can beat the $6 game (or any SNG level). Just my opinion. I'd take this bet in a second, if it didn't feel so much like shooting fish in a barrel. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Regards
Brad S

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many tables are you playing at once? If you are 1-3 tabling I will take the treeofwisdom action and exonerate you from being such an axxhole. If you are running 8-tables, then I'm out and you're just an asshxxle like all the noobs say.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to play one table at a time and try very hard. My game-theory based approach is not what everybody thinks it will be.

Also, in case you want some more side action: if TOW takes you up on the bet and I win, the odds against him paying you are 10-1... and I know 3 people that will book that for you.

Iriguy
who thinks this forum is finally getting fun again

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW, you must be really interested in your theory to try to make $300 playing $100 $5 SNG's 1 at a time when if you were 6-tabling the $109's for a similar amount of time with a 5% ROI, you would have $3500.

Must be nice to be a rich doctor. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[stupidsucker]

Somehow for some reason I imagine Irieguy surrounded by strippers talking about poker.

I'll take $25 sidebet against ToW7 for fun if you are still interested on the condition that he transfers me or a third party the money before any more results are posted.

This is your chance to spite that a$$hole Ireieguy and make $25.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

WOW, you must be really interested in your theory to try to make $300 playing $100 $5 SNG's 1 at a time when if you were 6-tabling the $109's for a similar amount of time with a 5% ROI, you would have $3500.

Must be nice to be a rich doctor. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if he thinks proper use of this theory at other levels will elevate his ROI 1-2%.

[ilya]

I would not feel comfortable taking this bet.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

WOW, you must be really interested in your theory to try to make $300 playing $100 $5 SNG's 1 at a time when if you were 6-tabling the $109's for a similar amount of time with a 5% ROI, you would have $3500.

Must be nice to be a rich doctor. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if he thinks proper use of this theory at other levels will elevate his ROI 1-2%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever theory it is, I sincerely doubt its effectiveness or lack thereof would correlate in any way to higher level SNG's.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

WOW, you must be really interested in your theory to try to make $300 playing $100 $5 SNG's 1 at a time when if you were 6-tabling the $109's for a similar amount of time with a 5% ROI, you would have $3500.

Must be nice to be a rich doctor. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if he thinks proper use of this theory at other levels will elevate his ROI 1-2%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever theory it is, I sincerely doubt its effectiveness or lack thereof would correlate in any way to higher level SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say when we don't know what it is.

I don't know what separates the 15% ROI players from the 5% ROI players at the 215s. But surely being able to interpret and perhaps even predict the behaviour of those you play against is one element of it.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you are gonna win this bet...


Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Aleo. Where were you at 5pm?

Irieguy

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
Where were you at 5pm?


[/ QUOTE ]

living life... away from my computer...

It's weird. There is this whole cool world out there... with trees, and birds, and living things. Scary kind of, and crazy... but fun. The air smells funny though, all crisp and, what is the word... fresh? It's so bright also, cause there is this big brilliant round thing in the sky but I'm getting used to that too. I just don't look directly at it anymore.

Oh well. Good luck getting lucky, cause I think you will need it.

Regards
Brad S

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh.

This is hard. And boring. It's only 10, but I don't like the way it feels so far. At least I can't tell if I'm running badly or not (I've only watched 1 HH in the replayer.)

1st: 0
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
OOTM: 8

I was hoping for more hands like this:

***** Hand History for Game 2249418256 *****
NL Hold'em $5 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13330281 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, June 23, 01:11:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 35304 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Irie ( $3313 )
Seat 4: MizzHolla ( $2065 )
Seat 5: Atchydog ( $1992 )
Seat 6: NY_Henri ( $630 )
Trny:13330281 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irie [ 7h 8d ]
NY_Henri folds.
Irie is all-In [3313]
MizzHolla folds.
Atchydog is all-In [1692]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, Tc, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
Atchydog shows [ Jd, Ad ] high card ace.
Irie shows [ 7h, 8d ] a straight, four to eight.
Irie wins 1321 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, four to eight.
Irie wins 4134 chips from the main pot with a straight, four to eight.
Atchydog finished in fourth place.
Atchydog has left the table.


This was the 4th one I played, and I found it ironic that Raptor's famous AJ thread could have saved Atchydog his untimely demise.

It was doubly ironic that the player that beat me HU was named "holla."

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

if only they would listen and fold that AJ /images/graemlins/wink.gif very cooky indeed that the HU guy was named HOLLA.. very very interesting. must be a sign. holla

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what separates the 15% ROI players from the 5% ROI players at the 215s.

[/ QUOTE ]

sample size

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know what separates the 15% ROI players from the 5% ROI players at the 215s.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



sample size

[/ QUOTE ]

EXCELLENT!!!! post of the year. holla

[treeofwisdom7]

all i ask for is a little respect. sorry if i said [censored] but ive been dissed and it pissed me off


i just got home from work and i'll take 30$ bet ire cant do it.. i'll even shell out 20$ if he showed me some respect.

[stupidsucker]

respect is earned.

Ask Degen

No one I can think of on this board has worked harder for respect. He dug himself a big hole first and climbed out.

The best way to gain respect is to show respect.

People on this board offer free advice that ultimatly hinders their own advancement. Sometimes they get arrogant and downright rude. Most of the time it is in jest similar to a hazing.

You can embrace it or fight it.
<font color="white">
How you take this advice will be evident of your nature. </font>

[NegativeEV]

PM Trail between TOW &amp; -EV:

[ QUOTE ]
Subject: Re: bet


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ok i'll take the ire bet. for 25$ .. hows the transaction gonna work?



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Well, you're late to the party since Irie already posted results for his first 10 SnGs (20%ITM not so hot). But, since I like a good gamboooool on the darkhorse, let's do it. For $25 I trust that you'll square up and I am comfortable not using a third party (also for $25 you'll have to trust that I'm reliable as I'm not in for messing around with finding an escrow). As far as actually transfering the $$, let's use Neteller at the conclusion of the Irie quest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright Irieguy- you're my horse. Please waste a fantasy heater on these $5's to make me a questionably collectible $25 big ones.

P.S.
I'll take the 10:1 action for $50 on TOW paying if you can pull this out.

[treeofwisdom7]

im good for the 25$. youd have to be a fool to make a side bet..

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
im good for the 25$. youd have to be a fool to make a side bet..

[/ QUOTE ]

We're on the side here TOW. I'm GETTING 10:1 odds on my $50 (I'm saying you'll pay).

P.S. Is this what was meant by low content posts and splitting the forum /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
im good for the 25$. youd have to be a fool to make a side bet..

[/ QUOTE ]

After all your p*ssing and moaning, you found someone to take your bet, then you announce to the world what a fool he is. I refer you to Ilya's post re: respect

Winwood
Who may be a noob, but is member #779 of this forum and has read more posts that you've had hot dinners

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]

Winwood
Who may be a noob, but is member #779 of this forum and has read more posts that you've had hot dinners

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, The Shadow came out of hiding (sort of). Unveil yourself, mystery man!

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Winwood
Who may be a noob, but is member #779 of this forum and has read more posts that you've had hot dinners

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, The Shadow came out of hiding (sort of). Unveil yourself, mystery man!

[/ QUOTE ]

No mystery micro, I'm just shy is all /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I have enjoyed reading these forums for a long time - they literally are the reason I make money at poker. And I'm indebtted to the many quality frequent posters. And I'm annoyed by the arrogant insulting donks.

Anyway, back to lurking...

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im good for the 25$. youd have to be a fool to make a side bet..

[/ QUOTE ]

After all your p*ssing and moaning, you found someone to take your bet, then you announce to the world what a fool he is. I refer you to Ilya's post re: respect

Winwood
Who may be a noob, but is member #779 of this forum and has read more posts that you've had hot dinners

[/ QUOTE ]

you didnt understand my post

[treeofwisdom7]

i need a 3rd party to hold the money from me and negativeEV
?? and if its to be a bet it has to be soon.


thankx TOW7

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This post has nothing to do with my poker ability or lack thereof.

I have some game-theory based ideas about SNGs that led me to think of an interesting proposition bet.

I'm going to play 100 $5+1 SNGs on Party(skin) with a sticky-note covering my hole cards. I will never look at my hole cards. Ever.

I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive.

Again, this has nothing to do with me or my ability... I'm just a bot here that knows a little about bluffing.

I don't want to run an experiment, because I don't want to play 1000 of them. So, I'll have to settle for a proposition bet. That way, while the results will be almost entirely uninteresting... at least it will be fun.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read all the posts to this yet, but I believe I could do the same. LOL

[Matt R.]

He didn't say NegativeEV was a fool. He's saying anyone betting against him paying up is a fool. You guys need to lay off TOW. Unless I'm missing something that he's done on the forum before, he hasn't done anything to deserve this many people talking [censored] about him. Irie took a dig at him, and he was offended. It looked like the dig was a result of TOW playing lower stakes (and not being able to afford the full $300 bet). I'd probably be offended too if I was in the same position.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't say NegativeEV was a fool. He's saying anyone betting against him paying up is a fool. You guys need to lay off TOW. Unless I'm missing something that he's done on the forum before, he hasn't done anything to deserve this many people talking [censored] about him. Irie took a dig at him, and he was offended. It looked like the dig was a result of TOW playing lower stakes (and not being able to afford the full $300 bet). I'd probably be offended too if I was in the same position.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post made my day. thankx man, it seems everyone on this forum enjoys pinging me. nice to know someone out there shows class..

thanks again

TOW7

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps they're only taking the $25 bet because, you know, you're just some dude on the internet who claims to have a good ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

[gildwulf]

So Irie...you're not taking the $25 bets? Your post said nothing about first-come-first-serve.

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He didn't say NegativeEV was a fool. He's saying anyone betting against him paying up is a fool. You guys need to lay off TOW. Unless I'm missing something that he's done on the forum before, he hasn't done anything to deserve this many people talking [censored] about him. Irie took a dig at him, and he was offended. It looked like the dig was a result of TOW playing lower stakes (and not being able to afford the full $300 bet). I'd probably be offended too if I was in the same position.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post made my day. thankx man, it seems everyone on this forum enjoys pinging me. nice to know someone out there shows class..

thanks again

TOW7

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologise for my misunderstanding.

However, FWIW, I didn't just read that one post and jump to a conclusion about him. I've read this thread, and this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2703675&amp;page=3&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) one, and a bunch of other random posts. And I stand by my original remarks.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
So Irie...you're not taking the $25 bets? Your post said nothing about first-come-first-serve.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many bets are offered that you know of where the bookee MUST take all bets?

[gildwulf]

How many bets are offered that you know of where the bookee only takes one?

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He didn't say NegativeEV was a fool. He's saying anyone betting against him paying up is a fool. You guys need to lay off TOW. Unless I'm missing something that he's done on the forum before, he hasn't done anything to deserve this many people talking [censored] about him. Irie took a dig at him, and he was offended. It looked like the dig was a result of TOW playing lower stakes (and not being able to afford the full $300 bet). I'd probably be offended too if I was in the same position.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post made my day. thankx man, it seems everyone on this forum enjoys pinging me. nice to know someone out there shows class..

thanks again

TOW7

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologise for my misunderstanding.

However, FWIW, I didn't just read that one post and jump to a conclusion about him. I've read this thread, and this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2703675&amp;page=3&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) one, and a bunch of other random posts. And I stand by my original remarks.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i offended you winwood *sry*. every post like the one which you put a link too was the cause of someone pissing on me first. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know what separates the 15% ROI players from the 5% ROI players at the 215s.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



sample size

[/ QUOTE ]

EXCELLENT!!!! post of the year. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL yeah this definitely is a good reply.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
How many bets are offered that you know of where the bookee only takes one?

[/ QUOTE ]

From Irie: "I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive."

Raptor got the full $300. Where does it say Irie needs to take more? He could just say f*ck everyone and not even read this thread, as it's his right. I think the challenge is a pretty fun idea and might even be doable in 100 55's or something. If anyone wants to lay me some good odds on this bet, I might be persuaded to do it. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know what separates the 15% ROI players from the 5% ROI players at the 215s.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



sample size

[/ QUOTE ]

EXCELLENT!!!! post of the year. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL yeah this definitely is a good reply.

[/ QUOTE ]

Occasionaly I stumble onto a gem that other people find funny. Truth is all my posts are hilarious to me, and I am the only one I need to entertain, but I am happy when I can extend my viewing audience.


As for Irie not wanting to take any more bets ...
[ QUOTE ]
I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive.

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe this quote is a fairly simple explanation. He has hit his mark, and now he isnt taking any more bets.

The unfortunate thing is.... no matter what happens the inevitable sample size issue will be the deciding factor.

If every 100 game sample I had was a winner then I would be a happy man.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

The unfortunate thing is.... no matter what happens the inevitable sample size issue will be the deciding factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I buy that, unless you're arguing that he might get lucky and win. He has to beat a 20% rake game without looking at his cards, ever, against an audience that probably is inclined to call too much. This is going to be very difficult, regardless of sample size.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He didn't say NegativeEV was a fool. He's saying anyone betting against him paying up is a fool. You guys need to lay off TOW. Unless I'm missing something that he's done on the forum before, he hasn't done anything to deserve this many people talking [censored] about him. Irie took a dig at him, and he was offended. It looked like the dig was a result of TOW playing lower stakes (and not being able to afford the full $300 bet). I'd probably be offended too if I was in the same position.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post made my day. thankx man, it seems everyone on this forum enjoys pinging me. nice to know someone out there shows class..

thanks again

TOW7

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologise for my misunderstanding.

However, FWIW, I didn't just read that one post and jump to a conclusion about him. I've read this thread, and this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2703675&amp;page=3&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) one, and a bunch of other random posts. And I stand by my original remarks.

[/ QUOTE ]
ahh but you left out this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2675104&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1) one, in which TOW argues that colluding against a short stack is not cheating.

[treeofwisdom7]

seriously get over yourself i didnt argue that it wasnt cheating . i just dont understand why it is..

[censored] ME IF IM IGNORANT BUT [censored] YOU FOR BEING AN [censored]

[ewing55]

[ QUOTE ]
The best way to gain respect is to show respect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey StupidSucker...

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] ME IF IM IGNORANT BUT [censored] YOU FOR BEING AN [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that answers your question for all of us. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

------------Jeff

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
How many bets are offered that you know of where the bookee only takes one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember, BOOKEE, not BOOKIE, there IS a difference. A player booking a bet can accept or decline any bet he chooses.

[Irieguy]

4 of 5 ITM last night. The $5 SNGs are easy.

This is the most boring thing I've ever done. I'm now multi-tabling a bit because otherwise i'd have to kill myself before I played 100.

My "secret strategy" is becoming more automatic, so I can play 2-3 tables at once without any trouble. But it still doesn't feel like I'm beating the game. 2 of my 4 ITMs happened because I got a PVS called in two spots and sucked out against aces (in 1) and queens (in the other) to triple up and bust 2 players. The $5 players really like to limp-call with big hands more than at the other limits. They also like to limp-call with any two, too, which makes the PVS a much less effective tool.

I've already learned, pretty much, what I was seeking to find out: some of the tactics I'm experimenting with appear to be as powerful as I thought. But I'm still gonna have to get pretty lucky to win this bet.

The most compelling component of this enterprise for me now is wondering what TOW is going to do with his $25.

Irieguy

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
4 of 5 ITM last night. The $5 SNGs are easy.

This is the most boring thing I've ever done. I'm now multi-tabling a bit because otherwise i'd have to kill myself before I played 100.

My "secret strategy" is becoming more automatic, so I can play 2-3 tables at once without any trouble. But it still doesn't feel like I'm beating the game. 2 of my 4 ITMs happened because I got a PVS called in two spots and sucked out against aces (in 1) and queens (in the other) to triple up and bust 2 players. The $5 players really like to limp-call with big hands more than at the other limits. They also like to limp-call with any two, too, which makes the PVS a much less effective tool.


[/ QUOTE ]

Keep that turbo-charged luckbox in high gear- I've got big plans for that $25.

I plan to use this thread to make pooh-bah.

[Unarmed]

Admit it, you blew your entire bankroll on Brynn's bonus and now you're working your way back up.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Admit it, you blew your entire bankroll on Brynn's bonus and now you're working your way back up.

[/ QUOTE ]

HA!

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The best way to gain respect is to show respect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey StupidSucker...

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] ME IF IM IGNORANT BUT [censored] YOU FOR BEING AN [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that answers your question for all of us. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

------------Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps now would be a good time to point out the white text at the bottom of the post where that quote originated from.

[45suited]

This entire thread is hilarious to me, with all the betting and side action. And without ever meeting Irieguy, I would trust him enough to make a $300 bet with him.

It's amazing how similar this stuff is to me with my friends... we all play poker together, golf together, drink together - and we bet on EVERYTHING. And we all know that the one thing that you can't do is not pay up on a bet. I'm reminded of Kramer betting on arrival times at the airport....

I would've jumped on this bet if I saw it before Raptor did, but I have to admit that I'm rooting for Irie to win this. Only thing is, has he considered that if he wins this, all the losing players on the 6s and 11s will need to be put on suicide watch??? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jcm4ccc]

Didn't read the post. Just wanted to give you the flame.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
No mystery micro, I'm just shy is all

[/ QUOTE ]

DDR?????? SHIP IT!!!! holla

[treeofwisdom7]

i expect 90% of the time you do a pvs it wont work, 60% of the time you try and steal the blinds they will call, and 100% of the time you think the guy with J8 cant call an all in he will.

i took the bet not for the money but for the action.

[Vee Quiva]

Interesting challenge Irie. I wrote a similar post in the multi table forum about playing a 3 table sit n go blind for the first 5 levels. I ended up winning the tournament. It was a $5 tourney so the looseness of the players was probably similar.

Here's what I think you are doing as far as strategy goes.
1. Only play hands in late position.
1. A. Never enter a pot without a raise.
2. Open raise in late position whenever folded to.
3. If called, bet like you have the nuts on the flop.
4. As it gets close to the bubble, bet all in and steal blinds until you hit the money. Basic raise when folded to and fold when raised.

How close am I?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
i expect 90% of the time you do a pvs it wont work, 60% of the time you try and steal the blinds they will call, and 100% of the time you think the guy with J8 cant call an all in he will.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, so far these numbers aren't anywhere close to what's happening. The PVS, for example, still works well over 60% of the time.

Everybody thinks $5 players never fold. That's not true. They just don't like to fold preflop. Fortunately, there are 5 streets and 3 betting rounds left if somebody calls me preflop.

Irieguy

[KJ o]

Time for an update? Or was that posted in another tread?

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
The most compelling component of this enterprise for me now is wondering what TOW is going to do with his $25.

[/ QUOTE ]Probably play 4 $6 tourneys without the post-it note.

[skipperbob]

My Guess: His "alligator mouth" got his "hummingbirdass" in over it's head /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Time for an update? Or was that posted in another tread?

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, heres an update, i let him buy me out for a free room in vegas during the calcutta. fair enough. i wouldnt wanna play 100 5+1s either. gigantic waste. he proved his point over 50. holla

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Time for an update? Or was that posted in another tread?

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, heres an update, i let him buy me out for a free room in vegas during the calcutta. fair enough. i wouldnt wanna play 100 5+1s either. gigantic waste. he proved his point over 50. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Last I heard, he said it was the most boring thing he had ever done.

[HighestCard]

I haven’t read all the replies so I don’t know if this is a repeat but anyway...
Wouldn’t this experiment be more decisive, interesting, revealing.. if you tried this at the 55's or 109's where peoples bets and their amount actually mean something, (supporting the idea of its your opponents play and not your cards that makes poker) instead of at the 5's where they just throw random amounts out there?
I'm sure nobody would want to waste that much of a br on an experiment though..

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven’t read all the replies so I don’t know if this is a repeat but anyway...
Wouldn’t this experiment be more decisive, interesting, revealing.. if you tried this at the 55's or 109's where peoples bets and their amount actually mean something, (supporting the idea of its your opponents play and not your cards that makes poker) instead of at the 5's where they just throw random amounts out there?
I'm sure nobody would want to waste that much of a br on an experiment though..

[/ QUOTE ]

you would be surprised.. i might just look into this. i think it would be VERY possible to do this in the 55s... if i got enough side action i might take it. you can make people fold there. play position, stacks, etc. make one or two raises in lvl 1-2, make 2.5x on the cutoff in lvl 3, stuff like that. holla

[Sponger15SB]

I'd just troll all your tables and outline what you are doing complete with links to threads.

You'd get so owned so hard.