(A-5) If I have an 8 on the last draw...

[canis582]

If I am in position with an 8 on the last draw and the player infront of me draws one, am I better off staying pat? What if there are two players drawing one in front of me? This situation came up twice last night and both times I was outdrawn. It seems like I am a winner in the long run with this strategy.

There is a surprising amount of variance in TDL. Last night some donk drew two to the wheel aginst me. 6-4 NO GOOT is what he was thinking. I have no idea why he called my three bet when he could have raised, so I am a little thankful.

[MarkGritter]

An 8 should be a favorite over any 1-card draw in A-5.
(Unfortunately the twodimes calculator doesn't handle A-5 lowball, just 2-7.)

The worst case is to have a rough 876ww and the opponent is drawing to a smoother 8, say 832A. Any 7, 6, 5, or 4 wins, but this is at most 16 outs, so as long as there are more than 32 cards unknown (or you hold some of the outs) you are a favorite.

This is almost the same as holding a 9 in 2-7, although slight less favorable, since the best 9 is 2-7 is #19, while the best 8 in A-5 is #22.

A 9 is probably a small favorite over a one-card draw in A-5 as well (maximum 20 outs to beat you), but a T is pushing it.

[canis582]

Lets say 3 people draw 1, would I want to break it? If they are all drawing better than me, then wouldnt I be a dog to the field? But then again I am only putting in 1-4th of the pot, so I only have to win 33 percent of the time...GD variance.

[MarkGritter]

I think it really depends on how rough your 8 is, and how rough your opponents are drawing.

Worst case: With an 87, 86, or 85, against three players who are drawing with 432A, they each have 14 outs to beat you. There are 35 unknown cards, 21 are harmless, so you will win about 21C3/35C3 of the time, or 20.3%.

I wish pokenum worked on this... because although you are a dog that doesn't automatically mean you should draw, your draw might be worse. With 532A, you have 8 outs to a wheel or a 65, which is 23%. You will lose sometimes with your 65 and win sometimes with a 75 or 85. (And in this particular case all but 1 of the 4s are gone so your odds are only 14%.) So I think drawing might be correct in some cases here, but you can see it could be close or worse against monster last draws.

In a big pot you are probably better off standing pat even with a smooth 8; in a small pot you may want to draw to pick up an extra bet at the end. But it's hard to see how any 4-way pot can be small.

With a rough 8 you are too likely to make your hand and lose anyway, standing pat is probably always best.

[timprov]

You should be able to jam it into pokenum Razz, I would think.

[timprov]

I gave this a bit of a shot. When I say "favorite to win" here I mean equity > 50% (four-handed there are some situations with a lot of ties).

Headsup with kings dead any 9 is a favorite over A234, and also any fully rough ten (no cards A234). A smooth ten that isn't eating A234's outs is an underdog.

Three-handed with six big cards dead, 765 is a favorite to win over two players with A234, but no smoother 7. Any 6 is a significant favorite. To be an equity favorite you need an 8 that kills three of their outs or any 7.

Four-handed with eight big cards dead, you actually need a wheel to be a favorite to win against three A234s, though 64 is close and if some 5s or 6s are dead it would be a favorite. Any 7 is an equity favorite.

[BluffTHIS!]

I would stand pat against 1 or 2 players in position and be prepared to fold if bet into postdraw. Against 3 players I would only stand if I were very rough like 8762A and didn't think even hitting a better card would win, still being prepared to fold if bet into.