Lay Down or Call Down OverPair to Turn Raise?

[Catt]

Or does anyone three-bet the turn? I presume not but I've been wrong before . . .

Only ~50 hands on Villain, and no real reads on post-flop play. His stats over those measly 50 hands are 60/18/1.7 with WTSD ~22. Some of these hands were probably at a 4- and 5-handed table. My image is probably solid - playing aggressively but not showing down junk.

Is this an easy call down (given the "semi-bluffiness" of the board), or a laydown? If you call the turn, do you call a river /images/graemlins/club.gif, /images/graemlins/spade.gif, or anything that puts 4-to-a-straight on board?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP folds, <font color="#0000FF">Hero . . .</font>

[sy_or_bust]

I call down against this player, because he seems aggressive enough to have a 9 or draw. It sucks to be shown a huge hand at showdown, but you really shouldn't fold unless he's a LA-P type, IMO.

[J.R.]

Play like a turtle and go into a defensive shell v an aggro payer on scary-ish boards OOP.

My default would be to call and c-c river. He will bluff or bet his small pair for value on the river. Plus his stats indiatce he is tricky (aggro and loose so hard to hand read with much precision) so I don't want to have to face a turn cap and possibly another tough river call on a ugly river card. Plus the 3-bet lets him lose the least when bluffing and win the most when he does have 78 or 74 or 42 or 2 pair or a set.

More people should fear the terrpain, thank goodness they don't.

[StellarWind]

I've got to see this. This turn raise is often intended to remove MP from the hand and secure a free showdown. It doesn't have to be that strong. A good player could have 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/spade.gif. A bad player could have many things that you beat. Or you may have eight outs versus two pair.

Yes it could also be a semibluff.

Further aggression is possible but I settle for quietly calling down. Folding is not on the radar.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is not on the radar.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first thought - I agree with your analysis.

Surf

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding is not on the radar.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first thought - I agree with your analysis.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Never ever ever fold this. Not without a *spectacular* read. I call down regardless of the river, and frankly, against a lot of people find a 3-bet, at least at 10/20. (That's probably pushing it though.)

EDIT: Yeah, a 3-bet is probably pushing it way too much. But I have to call down at the very least.

[DMBFan23]

he could have a lot of hands here pegging you for overcards, I definitely like a call down

[Catt]

Blah! After posting it, looking at it for awhile, thinking about it, and reading the responses (thanks!) it seems a call down from here is a pretty easy decision.

I was still curious how close it might be and did a bunch of math (which I won't reproduce here). If I exclude an absolute total bluff from his hand range, and look at Villain's hands and my / his outs that include: (1) straight; (2) set; (3) two pair; (4) Pair + FD; and (5) FD + 2 overs; he needs to have straight / set / two pair here at least 80% of the time to make calling down -EV. I think I'm likely to see this raise from hands I'm beating (but that may have a decent chance to outdraw me) 20%+ of the time. If I add to his hand range something like OESDs, non-flush gutshots, top pair, pure bluff, etc. then I need to be well more than 80% sure he's currently beating me (not doing the math but wouldn't be surprised to see it 90%+) to make folding the correct move.

So, looks like an easy call down.

I must have posted this out of results-oriented judgment since I called down and he showed 78o for the turned straight. Again, thanks for the replies.

[krishanleong]

Easy calldown. Looks like a protection raise much more than a monster.

Krishan