A river bluff 1k sng stars

[Jason Strasser]

We are at the opening level of a 1k sng on stars, so we all have 1500 chips or so.

I get red 99 in CO. Some guy in middle position limps, MP makes it 100. I call from CO as does the limper and a blind. Pot has around 400 in it heading to flop. We all look at a 7c6c2d flop. Original raiser bets 150, folded to me I call its HU to the turn which is a 2c. He bets 150 again, I call. River is the Qc. He bets 150 for a third time, I raise all in. It was for roughly 1k more in a 1k pot.

-Jason

[Myst]

I like because he likely wont call without the Ace/King of clubs, and, if hes uber tight, the Ace of clubs only.

But then again, I dont play 1k sngs, so what do I know :P

[11t]

His betting is pretty weak but I dislike the river push like that.

If you had a club (especially the K or A) the average person would not push there, even though it is a pot sized raise, since he wants to get paid off in a showdown, not bet the other person off the pot. Your push screams "do not call" which, if he has a club, might open his range of calling. I would be more inclined to bump it up to 500-600 which will scare a lot more people off their hands.

I'm a donk though.

[11t]

Name a hand that pushes the river there. The ace or king of clubs raises to gets called and the jack/ten of clubs calls the raise to see if they rivered the pot.

The river push there smells very very fishy to me.

[Chief911]

Jason,

Who was it that you did that to? In these higher buy in games, its easier to have longstanding reads on some of those guys.

I think its a good play. Although I think I'd put in the big raise on the turn, but the river card sure makes for a good bluff card huh?

Nice move.

Nick

p.s. Amazing how soft those $500 and $1k sng's are huh?

[Unarmed]

I fold the turn.
He bet t150 into a t400 pot into 3 opponents on the flop where one of his opponents could very easily have an overpair. He's either making a retarded continuation bet with air and will fold to a raise, or he's betting Ax clubs into the field and hoping for a raise so he can get his stack in the middle. Since you can't withstand a semibluff reraise on the flop, I would just call as you did, looking to take the hand on a non-scary turn.

Once the 2/images/graemlins/club.gif falls and he bets I'm mucking. I'd bet the exact same amount as he did with the flush as many aggro opponents will put him in with any two sensing weakness. If he was making a c-bet with a whiffed AK on the flop I can't see him firing again on the turn given the 3-flush board. You can call and hope to fill up, but only 2 of your outs have high implied odds associated with them, as I can't see you stacking him if the board is 76222.

BTW I don't thnk you can get him to lay down a better hand on the river, simply because I can't think of a made hand other than the nut flush that would play the hand so weakly, and asking a random player to lay that down fearing the boat on this board isn't something I'd want to get in the habit of doing.

DISCLAIMER: I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[poindexter]

I like this play against the right opponent if it was the 4th plus round of the sng. The result of you successfully bluffing your opponent will give you a chip lead but it will not guarantee a spot in the $. If the bluff fails you are out $1000. I don’t think the risk is worth the reward this early.

[Matt Walker]

Do you have any reads on this guy?

What kind of a hand are you tring to represent? To me it looks a like you have a set and filled up on the turn and wanted him to catch up on the river, but how often do you call with a set on a fairly cordinated board like this? I like this play a lot more if you think you can get him to lay down an overpair with a club like KcKx. At the very least you can get some good advertising on this hand as I believe you are a fan of the river overbet with the near nuts so letting these guys see that you bluff there too wouldn't be horrable for the long term.

I'm curious about the turn call. What kind of hand did you have this guy on and what else were you planning on bluffing the river on.

[gumpzilla]

I'm slightly curious about the preflop call. Did you anticipate that the limper was likely to come along if you called? I don't think I'm too excited about playing the 99 heads-up postflop without a pretty decent read on MP, but your mileage may vary.

I like the play. I assume the purpose of the push on the end is to scare out non-Ac one card flushes. Figuring that you have ~9 outs to bluff on, I think this makes the turn call pretty good. I'm curious what your plan was if the river came blank; call small bets, fold to a bet of ~400 or so?

[wiggs73]

Going against the grain here a little, but I actually like the push. His river beat seems weak to me. I think he would have value bet for more than another 150 if he had a big flush and I don't think he's calling with a low one after the 4th club hits the river. I also don't see him calling without a flush. Of course, any reads could change my take though. But with none, I think it's a good move.

[jcm4ccc]

We all bow down to the cult of Jason, or the cult of Gigabet, or whatever.

Do you make this play because the villian is playing with scared money (you assume)? Would you try this in a $50 SnG?

[Irieguy]

If he folded, he couldn't beat 99. So, it was either an unsuccesful bluff, or an unsuccessful value raise.

Irieguy

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
If he folded, he couldn't beat 99. So, it was either an unsuccesful bluff, or an unsuccessful value raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you think a hand like J /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is calling here? Or AQ no club (this is unlikely, admittedly)? Or just that it's impossible for him to be holding such hand? I don't buy either, personally.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If he folded, he couldn't beat 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats not true at all. It is all based on the 4 flush board...although, I dont like this play.

[Unarmed]

Look at the flop action.
Does TT-AA bet 150 there multiway and nearly give two clubs correct POT odds to draw?
He *might* have A/images/graemlins/club.gifAx but anything else is pretty unlikely IMO.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at the flop action.
Does TT-AA bet 150 there multiway and nearly give two clubs correct POT odds to draw?
He *might* have A/images/graemlins/club.gifAx but anything else is pretty unlikely IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop bet could be a missed AK etc...who didnt know how to slow down...Unlikely...more likely is a made hand that tried to induce a CR and the problem card came on the turn which made him slow down but still value bet his set although he was scared of the made flush...

All I am saying is that I can see many hands that beat 99 play this hand similarly.

[freemoney]

jason what do you think about raising the turn?

[EverettKings]

Jason

This board, except for the flush draw, doesn't give you enough good hands to represent for this bluff to be profitable. He'll have a hard time crediting you for a flopped set of 7s 3s or 2s given his 5x pf raise. Even the flush is hard to represent here, since you'd likely have semibluffed the weak flop bet and he could be sitting on the Ac. I just cant find a good way to win this pot unless you're already ahead.

Theres my $.02

Everett

[John Hurst]

Raising the turn is my preferred line.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
We are at the opening level of a 1k sng on stars, so we all have 1500 chips or so.

I get red 99 in CO. Some guy in middle position limps, MP makes it 100. I call from CO as does the limper and a blind. Pot has around 400 in it heading to flop. We all look at a 7c6c2d flop. Original raiser bets 150, folded to me I call its HU to the turn which is a 2c. He bets 150 again, I call. River is the Qc. He bets 150 for a third time, I raise all in. It was for roughly 1k more in a 1k pot.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting pattern:
MP bets 100 (preflop)
Flop (t400) MP bets t150
Turn (t600) MP bets t150
River (t900) MP bets t150

This betting pattern continues to show lack of strength. It could be a unimproved AK (but with the K/images/graemlins/club.gif), it also could be a very strong QQ (having hit the boat on the river). Or, it could be the nut flush, trying to extract value. And obviously, it could be a series of continuation bets with nothing.

I both like and dislike your push on the turn. I like it because you can represent a hand you don't have, and that higher buyin players can play tight, in otherwords, can lay down a very strong hand. I don't like it, well because I don't like losing a $1,000.

I think this is more of an interesting hand, than a good one.

But in general, Strassa, I like seeing your ideas.
Scuba

[bugstud]

bump

[Annulus]

Im just not a big fan of running this move. Maybe it works, but I still don't think its neccessary.

[Jason Strasser]

My opponent thinks briefly and calls with KcKx.

I think I played this hand pretty sloppily and am not in love with it. Preflop is standard for me. I just have trouble when players bet like this... It's usually weakness, but not always?

Thanks for the replies, I'll try harder next time.

-Jason

[Annulus]

He played it so bad that it was good.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
My opponent thinks briefly and calls with KcKx.

I think I played this hand pretty sloppily and am not in love with it. Preflop is standard for me. I just have trouble when players bet like this... It's usually weakness, but not always?

Thanks for the replies, I'll try harder next time.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

heck I just busted in a MTT because a guy played aces the exact same way. Maybe it's the new style?

[Nicholasp27]

at his river call, he was down to 1100 chips

so his options are to fold and remain at 1100 chips, or bluff and go to around 3200 or 0

so the question is...what % of the time would the other guy have to fold to the push for it to be +EV?

u fold: $743
he folds to ur bluff: $1923
he calls ur bluff: 0


so u gain 1200 if he folds, lose 700 if he calls, so you are getting close to 2-1 odds...so now u just have to think if he's more than around 60% likely to call the bluff (ie he has flush or has set and thinks u are bluffing the flush)

[Khern]

I just went out on hand 5 of a tourney when a guy raised preflop, but then CR the flop... Didn't make sense, so used all of my time bank before pushing. He had QQ??

I really need to get better at drawing out if I'm gonna make plays like that.

-John