Bubble ?

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

Many 2+2ers advocate keeping the bubble alive so that you can accumulate chips. I hate the bubble b/c I am so afraid of not getting ITM. However, I am learning to play as we're supposed to. When your a short stack you need to take more chances so you can survive. But when you're the big stack you have more to lose, less to gain by pushing... right? I am pretty sure I played this hand correctly and just a victim of variance, but I am frusterated that I missed the money and was cheap leader. I had not pushed in about 3 rounds (13 hands). Was this correct given the stack sizes?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2855)
Button (t2235)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1430)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2855 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t2235 (All-In), <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t5390) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t5390) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t5390) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t5390

[Phill S]

Too many chips to push. Get fancy and raise less (500 works for me).

Then, *gosh*, outplay him post flop!

Phill

[Shajen]

I think you gotta wait for a better hand here bud.

You're the big stack at the table.

Anyone that calls is either gonna dominate you or you're racing.

[Scuba Chuck]

Mr Hyde. Before pushing, consider these three factors. Position, hand strength, and blind levels.

[Myst]

Position: Worst out of the 4.
Hand strength: Mediocre
Blind Levels: Too low to really matter to your chip stack.

Standard raise or fold is best play. All in bad.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
Position: Worst out of the 4.
Hand strength: Mediocre
Blind Levels: Too low to really matter to your chip stack.

Standard raise or fold is best play. All in bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have had people telling me to push w/ junk 96, etc. However, in those situations I was short and in trouble chip wise.

So is the priority of your criteria:
1 - blind size relative to my chip stack (is it fair to say if chip stack is more than 10xBB don't get fancy, 10x or less push if I have position or a decent hand... which I think A8 is...)
2 - position
3 - hand strength (if in trouble and have good position (i.e. folded to SB, push any 2)

[Phill S]

The size of your stack should be relative to more than just the blinds to define true shortstackedness.

The 10BB rule is good if your a beginner. Its also wrong.

Phill

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I guess one of the problems I am having with everyone's advice is not understanding why they are advocating advice in a given situation. I post hands and people say push here with that hand, not there... so I do it next time, but it does not work (b/c it is a different situation)

I appreciate everyone's advice, but maybe everyone should indicate why they are making this recommendation (i.e. push 96o b/c you're SHORT and everyone folded to you in SB as opposed to the standard push 96, not the 72...). I would prefer to learn from everyone's experience, rather then my own trial by fire (cheaper that way).

Well, I continue to learn from my mistakes and your advice regardless, thanks again everyone for your advice.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess one of the problems I am having with everyone's advice is not understanding why they are advocating advice in a given situation. I post hands and people say push here with that hand, not there... so I do it next time, but it does not work (b/c it is a different situation)

I appreciate everyone's advice, but maybe everyone should indicate why they are making this recommendation (i.e. push 96o b/c you're SHORT and everyone folded to you in SB as opposed to the standard push 96, not the 72...). I would prefer to learn from everyone's experience, rather then my own trial by fire (cheaper that way).

Well, I continue to learn from my mistakes and your advice regardless, thanks again everyone for your advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) You do not have an overwhelming chip lead. This is not a case where you can just, as someone else coined the term "rape the bubble".

2) You are UTG. You need a stronger hand with 3 players to act.

3) The most important in this hand: The 2nd stack, who has enough to cripple you, has yet to act.

4) Your hand is not that strong.

5) You have 14XBB and no need to make a play with such a poor risk / reward ratio. You're risking getting crippled just to pick up 300 chips.

Raising to 500 or folding are both fine options here. In the 800 chips tournaments anyway, there are not many players sophisticated enough to see you mini-raise as weak and then push over the top without the goods. If you raise to 500 and button pushes, you can still get away from your hand.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

Now that is the perfect post as to how to act and why! Those are all great points. Thanks.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess one of the problems I am having with everyone's advice is not understanding why they are advocating advice in a given situation. I post hands and people say push here with that hand, not there... so I do it next time, but it does not work (b/c it is a different situation)

I appreciate everyone's advice, but maybe everyone should indicate why they are making this recommendation (i.e. push 96o b/c you're SHORT and everyone folded to you in SB as opposed to the standard push 96, not the 72...). I would prefer to learn from everyone's experience, rather then my own trial by fire (cheaper that way).

Well, I continue to learn from my mistakes and your advice regardless, thanks again everyone for your advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) You do not have an overwhelming chip lead. This is not a case where you can just, as someone else coined the term "rape the bubble".

2) You are UTG. You need a stronger hand with 3 players to act.

3) The most important in this hand: The 2nd stack, who has enough to cripple you, has yet to act.

4) Your hand is not that strong.

5) You have 14XBB and no need to make a play with such a poor risk / reward ratio. You're risking getting crippled just to pick up 300 chips.

Raising to 500 or folding are both fine options here. In the 800 chips tournaments anyway, there are not many players sophisticated enough to see you mini-raise as weak and then push over the top without the goods. If you raise to 500 and button pushes, you can still get away from your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You beat me to it.

This hand of yours has NOTHING to do with the "keeping the bubble alive" scenario that I think you are referring to. That would look more like this:

HERO: 8500
X: 2000
Y: 2000
Z: 500

with blinds of 100-200, or 200-400.

*Different chip amounts but similar stack ratios for party SNGs*

In your hand, stacks are relatively even and no one is on the verge of being blinded out...in this steady state, you want to look to raise with position and put your whole stack at risk less...you have much more room to NOT push with any 2 and you are more likely to get called bc no one stack is guaranteed anything yet.

Taking advantage of wide stack differentials is where bubble money is made...but you dont have that here.

As for being due to variance? That has nothing to do with it.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]


You beat me to it.

This hand of yours has NOTHING to do with the "keeping the bubble alive" scenario that I think you are referring to. That would look more like this:

HERO: 8500
X: 2000
Y: 2000
Z: 500

with blinds of 100-200, or 200-400.

*Different chip amounts but similar stack ratios for party SNGs*

In your hand, stacks are relatively even and no one is on the verge of being blinded out...in this steady state, you want to look to raise with position and put your whole stack at risk less...you have much more room to NOT push with any 2 and you are more likely to get called bc no one stack is guaranteed anything yet.

Taking advantage of wide stack differentials is where bubble money is made...but you dont have that here.

As for being due to variance? That has nothing to do with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

when I refered to keeping the bubble alive, I only mentioned it to indicate that I hate the bubble and want it closed ASAP (b/c I don't consistantly get through it)

thank you for clarifying the importance of stack sizes and the associated level of risks to take or not.

As for variance, I guess you are right, if I had folded or just raised, I could have gotten away from hand and his QQ would not have mattered.

I have a follow-up. If I am mostly playing position (as you suggest), then some players will think that I am picking on them, (i.e. I raise from SB, then BB will think I am bullying him.) So I assume that I will still need to raise in LP with mostly strong hands incase BB wants to spite call...

This was another nice and detailed explanation. Thank you.

[pooh74]

The push all in is still a powerful tool, and someone will sometimes wake up with QQ+ and call you. (remember, even then you still win 1 in 3 times or so with A9).

Reiterating a bit what the previous poster said, all of the stacks here can pretty much cripple you, so with 2800 and 200 blinds, you dont need to put your whole stack up UTG with 3 potential crippling stacks ready to act behind you. It doesnt mean you cant raise there, or if the blinds were 500-600 then a push would be better perhaps....always think risk/ reward, even if not in mathematical terms, try to imagine roughly what the outcomes are.

[spentrent]

Be careful when you find yourself thinking "I should keep this bubble alive." The right ingredients for this situation don't come together frequently in the 800 chip games.

You want a short stack who's not desperate or short enough to spite call (or make a +CEV desperation call). And you want to have a dominating big stack... something like:

Blinds 100/200
UTG: 1500
Button: 1500
SB: 3200
BB: 800

Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG folds, Button folds, Hero ???

Now you can fold your AA in the SB to the short stack and steal the blinds the next two hands from the "worried" villains.

You'll probably run into more places to make these plays in the $55+ games since there are more chips on the table. But it's not something that happens a lot in the 800 chip games.

EDIT: It was hard to come up with a good situation in an 800 chip game... very telling, no? This might not even be a good enough spot.

[45suited]

That is a terrible example of keeping the bubble alive. I would not fold aces in that spot in a million years. If you put BB all-in, it's a 1000 chip pot. Maybe he'll call. Maybe if you have a good read that he's aggressive, he'll push if you limp. Either way, folding there is horrendous.

IMO, the notion of preserving the bubble has to be the most misused and overrated concept that I have ever seen. Maybe it works on the higher buy-ins but not at the lower ones. There is a time and place for it, but the situation has to be pretty extreme. I'm not doing anything at the 22s or below that can only work if my opponents are playing well. I'll make my "moves" on the belief that they will play poorly.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
That is a terrible example of keeping the bubble alive. I would not fold aces in that spot in a million years. If you put BB all-in, it's a 1000 chip pot. Maybe he'll call. Maybe if you have a good read that he's aggressive, he'll push if you limp. Either way, folding there is horrendous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I edited this right after I posted it.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
That is a terrible example of keeping the bubble alive. I would not fold aces in that spot in a million years. If you put BB all-in, it's a 1000 chip pot. Maybe he'll call. Maybe if you have a good read that he's aggressive, he'll push if you limp. Either way, folding there is horrendous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, can you throw me a bone and come up with a good situation that clarifies?

[KingDan]

If you are good enough to be +EV by keeping the bubble alive while folding aces, you don't need to be told when.

FWIW, I don't plan on ever folding them PF in a SNG, unless all hell breaks loose. ( i have 1 chip left on the button, and shortstacked UTG pushes)

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are good enough to be +EV by keeping the bubble alive while folding aces, you don't need to be told when.

FWIW, I don't plan on ever folding them PF in a SNG, unless all hell breaks loose. ( i have 1 chip left on the button, and shortstacked UTG pushes)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for this high content post.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I think for now, until I can consistently get through the bubble, I will not try and keep it alive. I am barely a break-even player, although the advice on this forum has improved my game immensely, I want to show a profit. I am just afraid the longer I spend in the bubble the more likely I am to make a crippling mistake.

[KingDan]

I was just saying... most people on this forum who would fold aces would be applying it incorrectly, and you would not be costing yourself much EV if you NEVER folded it.

[45suited]

Sorry, I wasn't trying to flame you. If you want to see what I'm talking about read this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2551498&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=

I learned my lesson that counting on the smart play of your opponents on the lower levels is a dangerous thing...

Sorry again Spentrent, I came off as a little harsh, no offense intended.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I was just saying... most people on this forum who would fold aces would be applying it incorrectly, and you would not be costing yourself much EV if you NEVER folded it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. Is there a way to jimmy the numbers in an 800 chip game that makes it worth it? Ever?

I admit that I came up with a shitty example in between folds on my tables... but let's add some content here instead of knocking people over with our enormous cocks. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[KingDan]

One of the problems is the person you let stay alive can really [censored] it up, if he just starts pushing frequently.