Blind battle

[mperich]

Button sucks really bad, very lag preflop, and predictable postflop. SB is unknown.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

[sthief09]

nh

[Scotch78]

I don't like the pre-flop call for several reasons. First, if the SB is an unknown to you, I'm guessing it's because he hasn't been at the table long, and that makes it less likely he knows to isolate the weak button. Second, the SB is unknown to you. You're probably going to end up with some tough post-flop decisions given the action and your holding, and it takes things like good information to counter that disadvantage. Third, the predictable player will be acting after you, so you won't be able to capitalize on the one advantage that you do have. On the river I can think of reasons to call and fold, so without any 10/20 experience I'll abstain from judging that play.

Scott

[sthief09]

button's raising all kinds of crap and hero has control over him. random people at 10/20 raise a wide variety of crap. so it's very likely he's against 4 overcards. 2 of the overcards he can read postflop because of the button, and the other 2 probably include an A. plus he has set value. I'd say 88 is a standard play here and 77 is borderline. based on this, I think 66 has to be a play here.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
random people at 10/20 raise a wide variety of crap. so it's very likely he's against 4 overcards

[/ QUOTE ]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 6h 459156 33.50 908657 66.29 2941 0.21 0.336
As Tc 505879 36.91 861934 62.88 2941 0.21 0.370
Kd 9h 402778 29.38 965035 70.40 2941 0.21 0.295

If the button caps, hero is left with zero margin of error. If he just calls, the hero has roughly an 8% edge that's worth half a small bet.

6s 6h 234697 17.12 1133033 82.66 3024 0.22 0.172
As Tc 514097 37.50 853633 62.27 3024 0.22 0.376
8d 8h 618936 45.15 748794 54.63 3024 0.22 0.452

If there's an overpair out there, he's losing roughly the same 8%.

So, let's simplify it by assuming all other scenarios cancel each other out and that he's up against 4 overcards 2/3 of the time. I have no idea how realistic that percentage is for 10/20, but it shouldn't be too far from reality. So, the hero is now holding an edge of about 3%.

With excellent postflop play, that is certainly enough, but this is the type of hand that makes for difficult decisions later on. If you switch the opponents' positions so that he can take better advantage of the LAG or have some reads on the SB, okay. He doesn't though, and he will need to see a showdown against two players who are very likely to make him call several bets/raises with middle pair or worse just to get his 3%, and at least one of whom is likely to see a river with high cards and get his full equity.

Oh, and I'm ignoring the set value because it requires him to make up at least 4BB post-flop to break even, so he would have to earn even more than that to significantly improve his equity.

Scott

PS Please tell me I'm making a coherent argument here, my poker judgment feels way off base lately so I need some reality checks.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]

Oh, and I'm ignoring the set value because it requires him to make up at least 4BB post-flop to break even, so he would have to earn even more than that to significantly improve his equity.


[/ QUOTE ]


basically whta your saying is preflop he has to make a decision. he can play his hand for set value or pair value. this is not the case. it's pair value more than makes up for what you can't make up the times you flop a set and win

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
basically whta your saying is preflop he has to make a decision. he can play his hand for set value or pair value

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I'm just simplifying something that I don't know enough math to handle unabridged. My argument basically goes like this:

1) with excellent post-flop play this call is just slightly +EV
2) it will be extremely difficult to play this one well post-flop
3) therefore this call is -EV (purely my opinion)
4) things like set value and bluffing out a better hand could swing could swing it back to +EV
5) given his opponents and the action thus far the latter will not be a significant factor (an opinion I think others will share)
6) at 3-1 pot odds he needs a lot of implied odds just to break even on his set value, so I don't see that factor swinging this back to +EV (again, purely my opinion)

Scott

[sthief09]

what I think you're missing is that set value and pair value both contribute to overall value. you don't need the 3.5*2 = 7 SB of implied odds AND +EV pair value to make it a good call. to use an extreme case, if you expect to gain 8.99 SB in implied odds, then you only need to play ti slightly well postflop to make up the difference. if you folded everytime you didn't flop a set then it has 0 pair value. assuming he'll make the right decisions and fold when he should he should be doing better than that 0.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
if you folded everytime you didn't flop a set then it has 0 pair value.

[/ QUOTE ]

D'oh! I'm going to bed. Yes, I was forgetting that breaking even on his set value with implied odds would make his total value 0, and thus any pair value makes it +EV. Okay, I'll call this one now. Thanx for bearing with me /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Scott

[etizzle]

plus, there is a significant chance that SB/button share one of the overcards, making only a total of 8 cards he has to dodge as opposed to 12 and increasing his equity a lot.

In these not too rare situations he will actually be a decent favorite.

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6d 6h 602768 43.97 764587 55.78 3399 0.25 0.441
As Qh 482251 35.18 868688 63.37 19815 1.45 0.359
8s Qc 265920 19.40 1085019 79.15 19815 1.45 0.201

[mperich]

I should also note that button will openraise hands I have dominated a decent amount of the time. Low kings queens and aces are all within his range. Possibly low suited connecters and such too and maybe random junk.

-Mike