Party 15: Agonizing river fold.

[Jeff W]

Villain is very passive and reasonably tight.
VPIP 23, PFR 7, AF .8

Party 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Th, Tc.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 3c, 6h, 2s (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 5s (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 9h (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds.

[AceHigh]

No way I fold here.

[The Truth]

I agree, I think you have to call.

[17percent]

call

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
No way I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. Maybe it's a bad fold, but I don't think it's more than a small mistake if it is.

[tighterr]

why even risk the river bet? You have had two callers down to the river I think you have made enough money already. Why not just check behind on the river to get the free showden and see if your medium over pair actually hold up? Maybe this is too weak but it just seems as if the villian played this perfectly allowing you to fatten the pot for him to take down in the end. They were not both going to fold to a river bet, so I think a check behind maybe in order.

[17percent]

"they were both not going to fold to a river bet"

isnt this the definiton of a value bet.. ?? you have to bet this river, am i wrong?

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
but I don't think it's more than a small mistake if it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand are you putting him on? Seems to me if he had a set he would have check/raised the turn. Most likely hands seem to be A9/9x to me.

[billyjex]

obviously a somewhat passive player C/R the river is cause for concern but the pot is so large you need to call.

I can't rely on a set of #'s here (how many hands were they over?) to make a fold with an overpair on a fairly unthreatening board getting 17 to 1. He played it too bizarre to make me believe he has a 4 or a set that is not 99.

[SpicyF]

This you can't fold. Call and lose, but don't fold.

[seabass74]

If I was folding to a check raise here, I would check behind on the river.

[ResidentParanoid]

What would a tight, passive player cold-call with pre-flop and then check-call with until the river? Seems like a slow-played pair bigger than TT or maybe 99. I can't imagine something like Axs that has top pair or straight on the river.

Even though it doesn't look good, I think I still have to call the river unless my read on him is really solid.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was folding to a check raise here, I would check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said. P.S. i think he has 99.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
why even risk the river bet? You have had two callers down to the river I think you have made enough money already. Why not just check behind on the river to get the free showden and see if your medium over pair actually hold up? Maybe this is too weak but it just seems as if the villian played this perfectly allowing you to fatten the pot for him to take down in the end. They were not both going to fold to a river bet, so I think a check behind maybe in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

This all seems really bad. Especially this part:
[ QUOTE ]
why even risk the river bet? You have had two callers down to the river I think you have made enough money already.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are lacking a lot of limit holdem fundamentals.

ps. I am not saying the river bet is correct or not, but your entire reasoning is wrong so it doesn't matter if your conclusion is correct (I'm not saying it is).

[DcifrThs]

big fold. call, call call call call call call RAISE? did the 9 help him?, was he depending on you to bet so he can c'r his flush?

so he either has 87 or a flush b/c i can't see a set ever being played that lightly and then c'ring the river.

so i see 2 hands. what i dont see is any sense in his line.

i have to call this and lose about 85-90% of the time.

-Barron

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
No way I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't fold cuz I don't bet....I see this showdown thankfully for free....MP2 was sandbagging a set the whole time the whole time or one of them hit their river.

[billyjex]

FYI there is no flush possible.

[elindauer]

It looks like you must be behind. On the other hand, there certainly is some doubt. He could be check-raising (incorrectly) w/ A9 for value, and he could be bluffing with something like KQs. It's a big pot, and even though he has told me I'm behind, it's not clear to me what he has. I don't fold to bets that just say "I like my hand".

Sure, he'll show you 99 most of the time, but you'll win sometimes too, and you don't have to win many to making calling correct. More to the point, this guy is passive, and I'd like to keep him that way. Since this decision is very close anyways, I don't want him to have reason to think he can put a move on me in some pot later in the session, especially since I know this move is likely to succeed.

Good luck.
Eric

[Gabe]

His numbers make him look pretty passive.

So, on the one hand, when you get check-raised on the river by a passive player, he has a very strong hand.

However, with that board, there is not a really strong hand that a passive player would have played that way.

Therefore, he must either be not as passive as he looks, or he is not as passive as he looks.

To be on the safe side, I'd assume the latter and call.

[jstewsmole]

I think this is a weak fold. ur getting too much to call one more raise. I think this guy could have a number of different nines here maybe he had J9 or 9T as well. And was hoping for a Multiway. Playing those types of hands in this situation are what give people 23 to 25% vpip's.

I think u have to factor in the fact that (i think like many of us) the villain can occasionally act out of character and try something especially if hes on tilt or whatever.

Is there any chance that he thinks ur betting with UI overcards like AK and will take a shot at u like this. I dont think its impossible here being that he got someone with a legitamate hand to fold which he probably wasnt even counting on.

[Jeff W]

The fold was bad. I need to win only 5.5% of the time to break even and I think that I do even against a seemingly passive/predictable opponent.

[einbert]

Hey Jeff,

Why did you raise the flop? To me this seems like a situation where it would be best to wait till the turn since you can't really protect your hand against overcards or anything else.

[Levi King]

Go back and read SSHE - it's a huge mistake to fold on the river in large pots for one bet if there's even a small chance you could win.

[Nate tha' Great]

How many hands do you have on him?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands do you have on him?

[/ QUOTE ]

1500 hands.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many hands do you have on him?

[/ QUOTE ]

1500 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a pretty safe sample size. Hard to see how you're ahead here. I'd say he has 87s or maybe a set of 9's around 95% of the time.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Go back and read SSHE - it's a huge mistake to fold on the river in large pots for one bet if there's even a small chance you could win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, please estimate how many BBs my huge mistake cost me.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Call.

[Michael Emery]

I pay off the river myself because I have no confidence in my reads. /images/graemlins/smile.gif But the part of the hand that puzzles me is how you could raise the flop here with your tens. We have an UTG player that capped and led out, I would be assuming I was against an overpair to my tens here??? The pot is so big its not like a flop raise is going to do anything to protect your hand. I would have simply called the flop. If UTG led out again on a blank turn I would want to raise to charge any draws/weaker hands but would still be to concerned I was crushed by JJ-AA. Therefore I would simply call down. Weak?

Mike Emery

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, please estimate how many BBs my huge mistake cost me.

[/ QUOTE ]
0.2-0.9 maximum.