Worst Move Ever - calling a shorty's push with 2/7 with 3:1 pot odds?

[The Student]

Okay, so I've been struggling with this hand for the past few days since I played it. First the hand, then my thoughts:
This is a $20+2 table.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1310)
Button (t340)
SB (t1425)
BB (t785)
UTG (t1220)
UTG+1 (t1575)
Hero (t680)
MP2 (t665)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t340 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>,

Hero ?

So, the initial raise was a steal attempt that went awry. I had played one hand before this outside of the blinds (I put in a PFR, but check-folded when my overcards missed the flop), so nobody should be thinking that I'm too loose. The villian meanwhile, was playing about 5 hands a round, and was cold-calling small PF raises when it looked like it would be a big multi-way pot. So when he re-raised me, I couldn't limit his range of hands to just a top pocket pair.

My thinking:
I'm getting almost 3:1 pot odds (565:190), and although I'm almost positive that I'm up against a better hand, I'm most likely facing overcards and not an overpair (because he's pretty loose, and because mathematically he's more likely to have overcards than a pair). So I most likely facing a 30/70 situation. If I'm facing an overpair, then my chances are down to 1:9. So here's my math, assuming that 85% of the time villian has overcards, and the other 15% of the time he has an overpair:

Facing overcards - 85% x (I win this 30% of the time)= .255

Facing overpair - 15% x (I win this 11.6% of the time) = .0174

So my total chances of winning are .2724, or 27% of the time. So if the pot odds are 3:1, this should be a call, right?

There were two other factors that pushed me towards a call. One was the fact that I didn't mind showing down 2/7o because I knew people would go nuts about it - which they did. The other factor was that if I folded I had 530 left (10 X BB), and if I called and lost, I had 340 (~ 7 X BB) with the blinds not rising for another 8 hands. I felt like I wouldn't be crippled with 7 X BB at this point in the game.

Please let me know if you see this problem differently or if you think my math is screwy.

thanks,

ts-

[lastchance]

Don't raise preflop unless this table is 00ber tight, and it's not.

I probably call this though...

[flyingmoose]

When do the blinds go up? I'm not sure I like the steal attempt at this stage in the tournament. Given that you did try to steal, I think a push is better than a 3xBB raise.

Once you're in this situation, the call seems fine, but I'm too lazy to run any ICM calculations.

[skipperbob]

Typically I don't respond to individual hand questions, but since Citanul has gone MIA why not?
1.) WTF were you hoping to do with your half-assed raise? Pickup up the blinds from early position?..Big Woop
2.) what did u intend to do when somebody raises your "H-A R"?...Fold?...Why bet to begin with?
3.) Pot odds don't mean diddly-squat when u risk most of your chips for no gain.
4.) Don't know how you got ss'd by Level 3; but given that situation, do you really want to go broke w/2-7 ?...Please tell me that you realize how completelyshitty this hand is!

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
. The villian meanwhile, was playing about 5 hands a round

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you trying to steal from a loose short-stack with a terrible hand, particularly when you are a short-stack yourself?
Also, why are you stealing with (relatively) short-stack at 25/50? You are putting almost a quarter of your chips at risk to win 75. You should be waiting for a spot here to double up and pushing.
That being said, you have put yourself in a situation where you are forced to call him for pot odds. You are getting more than 3-1...at this point you have to call.

edit: whoops skipperbob already said some of this. Well, it's good stuff.

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
whoops skipperbob already said some of this. Well, it's good stuff

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG: A compliment for content!...Alert the media /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Amid Cent]

To summarize what has already been said...

The raise was crap and should never have happened.

However, since you already dug this hole and jumped in, you now have to call the reraise.

[microbet]

I think the blind steal from early at level 3 can be profitable, but it requires picking a better spot. A real short stack is always going to be more likely to call/push. You are somewhat likely to be called anyway, so a hand that doesn't hate calls so much is good - say 78s. And you want to be able to afford the 150 chips more.

I think it's a pretty easy call after you are reraised.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
Typically I don't respond to individual hand questions, but since Citanul has gone MIA why not?
1.) WTF were you hoping to do with your half-assed raise? Pickup up the blinds from early position?..Big Woop
2.) what did u intend to do when somebody raises your "H-A R"?...Fold?...Why bet to begin with?


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey SB - not that Citanul has retired, I was hoping that I might get a formubot appearance on this thread to slap me in the face. I agree - the PFR was not a good move. I am trying to move away from the Aleo guide's formulaic strategy, so I am trying to put in some more early-mid position raises in the earlier levels. Sometimes the cards don't always cooperate, but since I'm trying to move away from my tendencies to play very tight in the early rounds, I sometimes throw in raises without the best of cards. So far I have found that it helps me to get to the mid-levels without being so short-stacked and having to go into push/fold mode so early if the good cards don't come early. I'm not saying it's a good reason, I'm just explaining how I ended up having to make a decision about calling the short stack's push. I raised here hoping to either take the blinds or take down the pot on the flop (if the blinds came along then I was going to take another shot on the flop).

[ QUOTE ]

3.) Pot odds don't mean diddly-squat when u risk most of your chips for no gain.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? My question in this post is whether or not I should call the short stack's push with 2/7 and getting 3:1 pot odds. There are chips in the pot to gain, so what do you mean? If you mean that my PFR was a mistake, I agree - but now that the PFR is in the past, what do I do now?

[ QUOTE ]

4.) Don't know how you got ss'd by Level 3; but given that situation, do you really want to go broke w/2-7 ?...Please tell me that you realize how completelyshitty this hand is!

[/ QUOTE ]

I do realize that this is the shittiest of hands, but I'm now trying to figure out if I should fold here when they pot odds tell me to call.

ts-

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. The villian meanwhile, was playing about 5 hands a round

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you trying to steal from a loose short-stack with a terrible hand, particularly when you are a short-stack yourself?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify - the villian here was on the button, not in the blinds.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes the cards don't always cooperate

[/ QUOTE ]

You make it sound like the cards' fault you raised with 72.

The general agreement is crap preflop, call the bet.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the blind steal from early at level 3 can be profitable, but it requires picking a better spot. A real short stack is always going to be more likely to call/push. You are somewhat likely to be called anyway, so a hand that doesn't hate calls so much is good - say 78s. And you want to be able to afford the 150 chips more.

I think it's a pretty easy call after you are reraised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, 78s would have been a lot better here. As I replied to skipperbob, the PFR was a mistake, but I am not opposed to attempting steals in the earlier levels without the best of cards.

My question to you is about this line:
[ QUOTE ]

A real short stack is always going to be more likely to call/push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you consider the blinds to be real short here? I think the villian is very short here(with less than 8 x BB), but he's on the button, and the SB and BB both have over 15 x BB. I'm just hoping you can clarify if you thought this was a particularly bad PFR because a shorty was probably going to call me.

ts-

[gildwulf]

It was a bad PFR because you had a read that the short-stack was loose and you tried to bluff a loose, short-stacked donk.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
It was a bad PFR because you had a read that the short-stack was loose and you tried to bluff a loose, short-stacked donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

The shorty was on the button - so I don't understand why you are saying that I was aiming my PFR/steal attempt at the villian/shorty. If anything, I was aiming the steal at the blinds - which was also a mistake, because my cards were crap and I couldn't withstand any real action if they decided to play back at me.

[gildwulf]

What does it make a difference where you "aim" your raise?

You raised on a bluff with the intention of making the people fold after you.

Loose donk was after you.

Thus, you tried to bluff a loose donk.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]

You make it sound like the cards' fault you raised with 72.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, if only it was... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
No, the fault was mine and mine alone. I posted this question to determine if I made one (the PFR) or two mistakes in the hand (the PFR and then making the wrong decision once the pot odds told me to call).
[ QUOTE ]

The general agreement is crap preflop, call the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but if anyone wants to show me another way to do the math here, I'd greatly appreciate it.

ts-

ts-

[PapiChulo503]

Its only level 3.

Whats is your table image?

If youve shown them UR loose UR going to get that steal attempt called a bit more often.

How would you classify your table?
If youve determined that your table is supertight then this steal might work because everyone else is going to be playing conservative poker until later rounds.

Its only level 3.

Did you do those calculations while you were playing?

Just curious because when I play I have 1min or less to make a move and I CANT do math like that. I like your thinking on this but you have to remember that this is a tourney and not a ring game. Pot odds are not that useful when you are risking all your chips.

I dont think that I would try that steal only because its level 3. I would have tossed the cards and waited for a better steal opp.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds are not that useful when you are risking all your chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf?

[The Student]

Check the OP again - I had only played one hand so far, and it wasn't showndown, so if they're paying attention, they would not think I'm loose.

No, I didn't do these calculations while playing. While playing, I thought that I was very likely up against overcards and that I was probably 40/60 against them, so with 3:1 odds I should call. Only when doing the math today using pokerstove did I see that I was actually only 30/70 against overcards.

ts-

[Jay36489]

In answer to your orginal question "Worst Move Ever - calling a shorty's push with 2/7 with 3:1 pot odds?", the worst more ever was the raise /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[trdi]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, but if anyone wants to show me another way to do the math here, I'd greatly appreciate it.
ts-

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you made those pecentages (85 and 15) so that it is profitable for you to call. Button was TIGHT and shortstacked. You had a TIGHT image and raised from early position. What do you think he put you on? He put you on a big big hand. And he went all-in AND he expected a call from that big big hand. I would put him on:
- AA or KK: 60%
- QQ, JJ, TT: 20%
- AK : 20%

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
I am trying to move away from the Aleo guide's formulaic strategy, so I am trying to put in some more early-mid position raises in the earlier levels. Sometimes the cards don't always cooperate, but since I'm trying to move away from my tendencies to play very tight in the early rounds, I sometimes throw in raises without the best of cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can understand your wanting to expand past the basic guide but this is not the way. If you want to expand your game, call with suited connectors in LP, call with 22 in EP, raise when its folded to you in LP with a med PP or 2 broadways. Go all in when folded to you on the button when shortstacked. Go over the top of one limper when you are in the BB. Just don't raise in MP with 72. What works for Carlos Mortenson on the WPT is not going to work on the internet.

[freemoney]

lol the percentages with hands is very funny, if its not intended to be a joke then quit.

[trdi]

Ok, I might be too harsh there. I should let at least 10% for worse cards. But 85 for overcards and 15 for overpair?! No way. What would you give to him? I'm definetly staying with 50%+ for JJ+.

EDIT: Oh, only now I saw, he was a loose player. I read that sentence wrong. I thought he was very tight. /images/graemlins/grin.gif Because an allin of a tight player after EP raise of a tight player would definetly mean my percentages coould be correct.

[microbet]

Number of big blinds isn't really the measure of how short shorty is. He has 340 and is loose and maybe steaming and will push with a very wide range of hands pretty much all of which are ahead of you.

Being in the blinds is certainly a factor in deciding how likely someone is to call you, but not the only one.

This one guy is not a huge factor in itself, but pretty much the stars have to line up pretty straight to go for an early position blind steal in level 3. IMHO, of course.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, but if anyone wants to show me another way to do the math here, I'd greatly appreciate it.
ts-

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you made those pecentages (85 and 15) so that it is profitable for you to call. Button was TIGHT and shortstacked. You had a TIGHT image and raised from early position. What do you think he put you on? He put you on a big big hand. And he went all-in AND he expected a call from that big big hand. I would put him on:
- AA or KK: 60%
- QQ, JJ, TT: 20%
- AK : 20%

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the button was not tight - as I wrote in the OP, the villian had played about 10 of the first 20 hands, so he wasn't tight at all. Furthermore, he was playing some of those hands by cold-calling raises, not by being the first one in the pot. Yeah, I made up the 85% and 15%, but I thought I had good reason to do so.

ts-

[The Student]

Thanks for the response, Microbet. I hear ya about the stars aligning properly for a level 3 steal from EP. I definitely won't be trying this again for a while. Although some of the table chat that came from this hand was almost worth the buy-in alone.

"PhilStubbs: so wrong
SUPERjoe77: nice hand a-holee
sports2266: are you stupid"

ts-

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
so if they're paying attention, they would not think I'm loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's your problem right there. They are not.
And even if they are they probably figure you must be bluffing anyway.