Top 25% of calling hands

[Steve]

When doing all-in or fold (i.e. on the bubble) EV calcs, here is a chart of hands that one experienced player says you'll get called by if your opponent will call with his top 25% of hands:

66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo

I seen that floating around 2+2 a lot, yet I disagree that they'll fold A6o-A2o yet will play QTo and JTo, most players I play against LOVE to call you with any Ace. They are much more likely to call with A2 then with, say, QT or JT.

Opinions?

[lastchance]

That's an absolutely horrible chart. 22 > A2s > A2o > JTo.

This range makes no sense.

22+, A2+, KT+, K8s+, QJs+ is a helluva lot better.

[Steve]

Anybody ever do any data mining on Partypoker to see exactly what are the most likely hands you'll be called by?

i.e. Level 7 or higher, player goes all in for about 4xBB, what hands are they most often called by.

[lastchance]

Oh, I meant a sane range that I would use. I'm sorry.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, I meant a sane range that I would use. I'm sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was just about to flame him too till i read your post.. LOL! yah im not sure what they use but that seems like a good example because i hardly see opps call me all in with 44 55 22 ..
of course some3times donks will call me down with J8 .


heres a question i was thinking about say the donks will use your calling range .

hero UTG 1300 with A6
MP 1600
B 1600
SB 1500
BB 1400

blinds 100-200

is this a push situation with the range of hands you put opp on ?

i did the math its a 1.5-1 against while you will steal 1out of 2 times. when you get called you will be 40-60 while the pot odds give about 1.4-1 maybe a little this isnt even break even with the pot odds . if you put your opp on this range with 4 people to act then A6 is too weak of a hand with your stack size.
i believe that you would need about T800 in chips for an all in to be correct here.

ie. +150 to each time you steal because you will be able to steal half the time with anytwo if htey have that call range.

if you get called the pot will offer 1100 chips + the value of 150 for those steals. 1250/800 = 1.56 which is better than the odds against you.

so 800's is the lowest a push with A6 would be correct.

did i do my math wrong?

[Gramps]

Yes, you're more likely to get called by A2-A6o than JTo/QTo/K9o by the vast majority of players, whether at the $215s or the lower levels.

But if you're doing an analysis on how certain hands do against that range, the differences are going to be quite minimal and probably (for practical purposes) irrelevant.

[Steve]

I think you're doing something wrong, if all 4 opponents will call with 22+, A2+, KT+, K8s+, QJs+, you'll get called almost 2/3 of the time (63.5%). But you're right that you'll basically be a 40/60 when called (38/62 to be exact).

[treeofwisdom7]

oh sry i used a diff calling range when i did it .. one from my exp.. A7+ 66 + K10+ Q10+
which is about a 60-40 but will get called less.

the range i use is one that i blieve that avg tight player will call

the important thing isnt to get the range correct but to create one and change it as you go along. and also to learn how to apply that range

[Steve]

I just went through about 50 of my tourneys (11s and 33s). When I went all in for about 4xBB near the bubble, here's what I got called by (provided opponent had at least 3x-4xBB himself):

A2, A4, KQ, A5s, JTs, A8, A5s, KQ, A6s, AK, A4, K3, A4, A2, 98!, A5s, KT

Ignoring the fact that this isn't statistically accurate, and ignoring that I'm a lucky sob and I never once got called by a pair, it does show a pattern of a lot of calls by A2-A4.

I sure would like to see someone datamine 1000s of PP tourneys and see what percentages they come up with. Could make a difference in all in hand selection.

If I were Sklansky I'd offer $200 for it. But I'm not so how about a deluxe partypoker hat (you pay shipping) /images/graemlins/smile.gif