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View Full Version : 100 games since blinds change - crazy ITM #s


45suited
06-21-2005, 03:59 PM
I wrote the other day that because of the new blinds structure, I have been sitting back more near or on the bubble (with a non-desperate stack) and watching my opponents get into post flop fireworks. I'm still pushing alot when appropriate, but probably not as much as Eastbay's tool would recommend. With the blinds at 75-150, there are many more spots in "no man's land" - You're at 8-12 X BB and don't know if you should raise, push, or fold. The new blinds coupled with my belief that BB's are calling SB open pushes more often has led me to be more selective and conservative in spots where previously I would have pounded on the BB. The result is a ton of ITM's but not alot of firsts. Here are my results after 100 games (at the 11s) of my "new blinds structure experiment":

Games Played (100)
1st: 10
2nd: 25
3rd: 20

No, those 2nd and 3rd place numbers are not a misprint. Only a handful of times though have I started ITM with the chip lead. I don't have the exact number, but it has probably been ten times at the most. During this time, I have open pushed when apppropriate, but not one time did I re-raise on the bubble when I thought that the initial raiser was stealing (unless I had a monster hand). This is even in spots where I was pretty sure that the raiser was stealing because he had mini-raised three hands in a row.

My normal ITM before the blinds change was 44% over the span of more than 1200 games (at the 11s), so the ITM of 55% over 100 is not completely out of line.

There was alot of talk that this blinds structure would favor the better players, but I feel like I might be turning weak-tight late in games a bit. Has anyone else noticed a big jump in ITM but a drought of 1st place finishes?

I plan on playing this way for 500 games and I will post my results when my experiment is done. It is very odd not playing so aggressively on the bubble but I have a feeling that the new blind structure might dictate this. Decreasing my chances to play for first has been completely offset by the easiness of making ITM. The extra blinds level gives the fish so much rope to hang themselves that you can be much more patient. (But it is frustrating getting heads up down 3:1 all the time.)

jcm4ccc
06-21-2005, 04:15 PM
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Has anyone else noticed a big jump in ITM but a drought of 1st place finishes?


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The only way this makes sense is if other people (e.g. fish) have a dip in their ITM but an increase in their first place finishes. This seems pretty unlikely.

45suited
06-21-2005, 04:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Has anyone else noticed a big jump in ITM but a drought of 1st place finishes?

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The only way this makes sense is if other people (e.g. fish) have a dip in their ITM but an increase in their first place finishes. This seems pretty unlikely.

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What I'm getting at is, is anybody else tightening up a bit on the bubble (because of lower blinds)? The result for me is that my ITM has gone up but I am usually either the 2nd or 3rd stack when 3 handed play begins, thus less 1st place finishes.

I'm fine with this because my ROI has not suffered at all (it has actually gone up).

I think what's happening is that if two fish get into a post flop pissing match on the bubble, one survives as the big chip leader and the other busts. Thus, higher ITM for me, but lower 1sts. Remember this is at the 11s...

TheTimeIsUp
06-21-2005, 04:20 PM
I've personally increased in ITM, and 1st place %.

Sabrazack
06-21-2005, 08:12 PM
I had a 60% ROI over 100 games, i also had a 0%ROI over 300 games. You just cant draw conclusions after 100 tournaments played..