curious little 99 hand in the $11s

[mlagoo]

***** Hand History for Game 2241162052 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13285393 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, June 21, 13:50:57 EDT 2005
Table Table 35306 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 5: ACEHIJD ( $2164 )
Seat 6: cupahearts ( $851 )
Seat 9: EmperorRandy ( $600 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $1190 )
Seat 3: broncostyle ( $1170 )
Seat 4: berry1986 ( $1407 )
Seat 7: cpd48 ( $618 )
Trny:13285393 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9d 9s ]
berry1986 folds.
ACEHIJD raises [400].
cupahearts folds.
cpd48 folds.
EmperorRandy is all-In [600]
HERO: ???

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a table read situation. First raiser is a big stack and can raise with a very wide range of hands. You would need to push all your chips in, and hope he folds for this to be correct to play. If that is the case, there is a lot of dead chips in the pot to play for.

So, I'm saying, what is your read on bigstack? Has he been raising a lot? Could he fold to two allins in front of him?

More importantly though, this hand is normally a fold for me here anyway. The only thing that makes this a little more interesting is the deadchips vs. the remaining stack you'll have if you lose (assuming bigstack remains on the sidelines).

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a table read situation. First raiser is a big stack and can raise with a very wide range of hands. You would need to push all your chips in, and hope he folds for this to be correct to play. If that is the case, there is a lot of dead chips in the pot to play for.

So, I'm saying, what is your read on bigstack? Has he been raising a lot? Could he fold to two allins in front of him?

More importantly though, this hand is normally a fold for me here anyway. The only thing that makes this a little more interesting is the deadchips vs. the remaining stack you'll have if you lose (assuming bigstack remains on the sidelines).

[/ QUOTE ]

The big stack only needs to call 700 chips to win about 2000 chips (I think). The Big Stack has everybody covered by about 1000 chips. No matter what your read on the Big Stack, you have to assume he is going to call this. It would be a mistake to assume anything else.

[45suited]

If it were me, I would fold every time in this spot. You've still got plenty of FE to push later.

BTW, that really sucks - 7 handed in level 5.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
If it were me, I would fold every time in this spot. You've still got plenty of FE to push later.

BTW, that really sucks - 7 handed in level 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's been absurd today.

On the other hand, I'm currently on a 5 straight 1st place streak. So that's nice.

Yeah, what I meant to add and forgot to was that the original raise had been very loose aggressive. So I didn't put much stock into his initial raise. However, I still assumed the initial raiser would call if I went allin.

Here was my thought process: The initial raiser could have any two cards. Well, I would say he could have Kx, Ax, any PP, and 89+. The second raiser I had to put on either a PP or two highcards. I don't do any math at the table -- I try and read these forums enough that I just have a general feel for the math -- but I felt like I was roughly 30-40% to win against their collective range, given what I "put them on."

However, I would be putting in about 1100 chips to win about 3000. So I was getting around the right odds to call, assuming I was right in my feeling about my chances.

Apart from that, I felt like, if I won, I would be the dominant chipstack at the table, and could just start running people over, especially with the blinds being what they were. So I called.

Results in white:

<font color="white"> Initial raiser flips over JJ, reraiser flips over 44, and I spike a 9 because I'm awesome at poker. </font>

[Steve]

[ QUOTE ]

The big stack only needs to call 700 chips to win about 2000 chips (I think). The Big Stack has everybody covered by about 1000 chips. No matter what your read on the Big Stack, you have to assume he is going to call this. It would be a mistake to assume anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at it another way, the big stack really SHOULD call in this situation, but I'm not sure he will. Seeing 2 all-ins he might fold this and you'll be getting 2 to 1 here w/ your 99 which you have to feel pretty good about.

[lastchance]

Yeah, that would be a great spot. 99 is a very, very good hand, but in front of two raises?

Gotta see if you can get big stack to lay this down, or have a wide range. Given your read, I push.