1800GAMBLER
06-21-2005, 12:13 PM
Want to know how DERB does it? Want to know how that aggro seemingly idiot player beats 100/200? Or how a decent-good player went from killing 15/30 to 100/200 super fast ...... and then also finished 12th in a WSOP event? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
RUN WELL!
Lets take all the players ever on party poker, say 1 million, one of these players has to have the best run ever and 1 person has to have the worst run possible. Lets assume 7/10ths are losing players and they average to lose at 0.5bb/100h, how far ahead COULD Mr Losing Lucky be after 10k hands? 100k hands? 1/2 million hands?
Mr Lucky: Player Pool: 700k. Win rate: -0.5, Variance: 18. Hands: 100k
These stats i've made are what DERB may be like; If Mr Luckiest out of the 700k pool size played 30/60 he should be down $30k after 100k hands, <font color="red"> instead he'd be ahead $130k! </font>Lets make him a -0.1 loser, up $165k! Lets increase his variance to 20bb, up $170k, a difference of $200k! A free house because randomness has blessed him!
In a time scale this means the player who probably started with $10k and should have been bust, gone and not spoke about had he ran normal has now won the cost of a house. In 357 hours or 3 months (30 hour weeks) Mr Bless By Randomness has just won what it would take the average American 4.25 years to earn. 4 years!
FWIW, putting DERB back at -0.5, 18, luckiest in 70k players it would take 3 million hands for 'his luck' to finally not be lucky enough for him and for him to go back to break even. Just short of 7 years. In that time this losing player has gone on a roller coast ride, bought a house, forced to sell a house, married super models, probably gone balded, teached all his friends how to play poker like him, and probably published a book called 'Play Poker Like the Pros'. So is it really all that surprising that a player in this run gets a thread on 2+2?
Mr Unlucky: Player pool 300k Win rate: 2. Variance: 18. Hands 100k
This player spends 5 hours a day learning, spent $300 on books, spends hours everyday speaking about poker to friends, logs all his hands, uses PT, understands maths, hell he could even have a math degree, or a math, psychology, and chemistry and whatever degree, but none of that will stop him from <font color="red">losing $33k </font> over 100k hands if variance picks him as the unlucky one, <font color="red"> when he should be up $120k! </font> Here is the scary part, this streak of cards, the cards that make him the unluckiest person in 300k players could be ready to start, at the very moment you pick that seat, you could have just sat yourself down on this variance streak, instead of winning $120k over the next 12 weeks of full time play, you are going to lose $33k. Lose your first session. 2nd session, maybe break even, log a small win and think it's over. 5th session, gone again. Week in week out.
Mr Average in 100/200
Just moved up. He's been a winner at all his over stakes but he will probably break even in a tough high variance game now. WR: 0. Variance: 22. Hands: 100k. He's the luckiest guy in a 1000 player pool. Given these figures, <font color="red"> he wins $351k </font>. Nice run since he only just moved up.
Fun One: Best possible day for a 2+2er?
Say 50 2+2ers all play the 30/60 for 4 hours each day, 4 tables. That's 1120 hands in a day. What's the best 1120 hand streak that the luckiest will have? 50 players and 365 means 11k 2+2 poker days. Best will be top percentile in 11k. <font color="red">$14000 day </font>. So in a year we should be able to come back to this post and one of us here should have won $14k in a 1120 hand sample.
So far this has all seemed unrelated and like a math excercise, looking at what may happen in the future, but this is happening now. 1 player out of all the party poker accounts has been the luckiest over the last year. 1 player in the 100/200 has to be also. 1 player in the WSOP fields has to be. If he's a winning player anyway it will help increase his profits, and he'll go very very far but even a loser playing could go this far. So control your ability and let randomness do whatever it wants, the only promising part is even if you are the 1/1000 unlucky sole if you are always playing at 2bb/100h level with a 16bb/100h variance after 77500 hands you will be 1.5 big bet UP!
Lastly, here we taken a 1m pool size with medium variance. Imagine taking every blackjack player in the world? Or every player to ever play a casino game? Life has variance too, imagine the person who makes OK decisions for himself yet he is the luckiest person in a population of 6 billion?
Jason.
RUN WELL!
Lets take all the players ever on party poker, say 1 million, one of these players has to have the best run ever and 1 person has to have the worst run possible. Lets assume 7/10ths are losing players and they average to lose at 0.5bb/100h, how far ahead COULD Mr Losing Lucky be after 10k hands? 100k hands? 1/2 million hands?
Mr Lucky: Player Pool: 700k. Win rate: -0.5, Variance: 18. Hands: 100k
These stats i've made are what DERB may be like; If Mr Luckiest out of the 700k pool size played 30/60 he should be down $30k after 100k hands, <font color="red"> instead he'd be ahead $130k! </font>Lets make him a -0.1 loser, up $165k! Lets increase his variance to 20bb, up $170k, a difference of $200k! A free house because randomness has blessed him!
In a time scale this means the player who probably started with $10k and should have been bust, gone and not spoke about had he ran normal has now won the cost of a house. In 357 hours or 3 months (30 hour weeks) Mr Bless By Randomness has just won what it would take the average American 4.25 years to earn. 4 years!
FWIW, putting DERB back at -0.5, 18, luckiest in 70k players it would take 3 million hands for 'his luck' to finally not be lucky enough for him and for him to go back to break even. Just short of 7 years. In that time this losing player has gone on a roller coast ride, bought a house, forced to sell a house, married super models, probably gone balded, teached all his friends how to play poker like him, and probably published a book called 'Play Poker Like the Pros'. So is it really all that surprising that a player in this run gets a thread on 2+2?
Mr Unlucky: Player pool 300k Win rate: 2. Variance: 18. Hands 100k
This player spends 5 hours a day learning, spent $300 on books, spends hours everyday speaking about poker to friends, logs all his hands, uses PT, understands maths, hell he could even have a math degree, or a math, psychology, and chemistry and whatever degree, but none of that will stop him from <font color="red">losing $33k </font> over 100k hands if variance picks him as the unlucky one, <font color="red"> when he should be up $120k! </font> Here is the scary part, this streak of cards, the cards that make him the unluckiest person in 300k players could be ready to start, at the very moment you pick that seat, you could have just sat yourself down on this variance streak, instead of winning $120k over the next 12 weeks of full time play, you are going to lose $33k. Lose your first session. 2nd session, maybe break even, log a small win and think it's over. 5th session, gone again. Week in week out.
Mr Average in 100/200
Just moved up. He's been a winner at all his over stakes but he will probably break even in a tough high variance game now. WR: 0. Variance: 22. Hands: 100k. He's the luckiest guy in a 1000 player pool. Given these figures, <font color="red"> he wins $351k </font>. Nice run since he only just moved up.
Fun One: Best possible day for a 2+2er?
Say 50 2+2ers all play the 30/60 for 4 hours each day, 4 tables. That's 1120 hands in a day. What's the best 1120 hand streak that the luckiest will have? 50 players and 365 means 11k 2+2 poker days. Best will be top percentile in 11k. <font color="red">$14000 day </font>. So in a year we should be able to come back to this post and one of us here should have won $14k in a 1120 hand sample.
So far this has all seemed unrelated and like a math excercise, looking at what may happen in the future, but this is happening now. 1 player out of all the party poker accounts has been the luckiest over the last year. 1 player in the 100/200 has to be also. 1 player in the WSOP fields has to be. If he's a winning player anyway it will help increase his profits, and he'll go very very far but even a loser playing could go this far. So control your ability and let randomness do whatever it wants, the only promising part is even if you are the 1/1000 unlucky sole if you are always playing at 2bb/100h level with a 16bb/100h variance after 77500 hands you will be 1.5 big bet UP!
Lastly, here we taken a 1m pool size with medium variance. Imagine taking every blackjack player in the world? Or every player to ever play a casino game? Life has variance too, imagine the person who makes OK decisions for himself yet he is the luckiest person in a population of 6 billion?
Jason.