15/30 JTs in a mixed field [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 11:43 AM

Very nice PP 15/30 table. Solid player is UTG, mostly tight and aggressive overall. BadPlayer is just to my right: very fishy, calls way too much, makes many mistakes. SB is to my left, and is fairly loose pre-flop and passive post-flop. BB seems to be weak-tight.

What do you think about my pre-flop cold-call?

What do you think about my raise on the turn after getting 3-bet on the flop?

What do you think about checking behind on the river?

What's your read on SB and UTG? I'll give you mine later and try to justify my actions.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: ResidentParanoid is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG raises, 5 folds, BadPlayer calls, ResidentParanoid calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, BadPlayer calls, ResidentParanoid raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, BadPlayer folds, ResidentParanoid calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, ResidentParanoid raises, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, ResidentParanoid checks.

Final Pot: 16 BB

Results later.

mab_nyc69

06-21-2005, 12:20 PM

this hand should have been folded. but if you decide to play, then the raise on the turn also seems like a mistake. check the river as well.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 12:38 PM

On the pre-flop CC: Getting 3:1 (likely) on my cold-call, sitting on the button ,with a big donator to my right, and two other readable players, I decided to play this one just a shade loose. One of my rare cold calls, but I think it is correct here.

I think I have to continue to charge draws on the turn so I raise again. With UTG so passive, he's waiting for something. With the flush draw now coming for me, I can make an additional bet on the river if I hit, planning to check behind if not, which is what I did.

DpR

06-21-2005, 01:02 PM

I think your line is ok.

dbecham

06-21-2005, 01:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SB is to my left, and is fairly loose pre-flop and passive post-flop. BB seems to be weak-tight.

SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, BadPlayer calls, ResidentParanoid raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, BadPlayer folds, ResidentParanoid calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

you just got check/reraised by a passive player post flop who 3 people left to complete the action. I think you are most likely dominated and would have no problem folding.

highlife

06-21-2005, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB is to my left, and is fairly loose pre-flop and passive post-flop. BB seems to be weak-tight.

SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, BadPlayer calls, ResidentParanoid raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, BadPlayer folds, ResidentParanoid calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

you just got check/reraised by a passive player post flop who 3 people left to complete the action. I think you are most likely dominated and would have no problem folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, you are often looking at a set here, or top two pair.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 01:28 PM

I am almost certain I am behind the SB after he check-3-bets the flop. Coming back to me on the flop, I'm getting 19:1 to close the action and see the turn. Normally I'd call in this situation, plus backdoor straight and flush options have me calling easily, with plans to fold on the turn if nothing good happens.

There's no way I can fold the flop with those odds in that situation.

bpb

06-21-2005, 01:34 PM

I don't like the turn raise.

SB is likely ahead of you here. He's a passive player who check-3bet the flop and led the turn. He has at worst top pair, and most of those outkick you.

If you knew SB and UTG would call and check to you on the river, your play would be fine. But if the SB has a biggie and 3-bets, you could lose UTG. I don't think UTG is a real threat here ... I'd rather keep him around to pay off on the river with his AJ or scared QQ or whatever.

brick

06-21-2005, 01:34 PM

UTG probably has TT, KQ, or AK
Sb could have a J, two pair, or OESD. I don't think he would go 3 bets with J-bad kiker.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew SB and UTG would call and check to you on the river, your play would be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am absolutely expecting SB and UTG to call and check to me. SB I am very sure will do that, since he's not a 3-bet-it twice kind of player unless he has the complete nuts, and even then he might not.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think UTG is a real threat here ... I'd rather keep him around to pay off on the river with his AJ or scared QQ or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG has gone to sleep, so I'm not too worried about him unless something scary hits.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG probably has TT, KQ, or AK

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty close to my read on UTG. I don't think he would play overpair in this way.

[ QUOTE ]
Sb could have a J, two pair, or OESD. I don't think he would go 3 bets with J-bad kiker.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ or two-pair or better seems right to me for SB. He's not the kind of player to check-3-bet a draw or a weak kicker.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 01:50 PM

Board: [9/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif] 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Results:

SB has J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (two pair, jacks and nines).
UTG has K/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (one pair, sevens).
ResidentParanoid has J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (two pair, jacks and sevens).

Outcome: SB wins 16 BB.

dbecham

06-21-2005, 02:13 PM

thought the river 7 was the best card for you in this situation, if SB had J5 or 95. I think its clear raising the turn was a mistake unless your intention was to get a free showdown. However, you put in 2 bets either way and I think you realize you were behind, which you were. However, if you call the turn, you still have to call the river for the chance the board paired above one of his pair. either way its 2 bb after the flop.

MattiasL

06-21-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG probably has TT, KQ, or AK

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty close to my read on UTG. I don't think he would play overpair in this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not really understand this. My read is that UTG probably has an overpair and is in call-down mode (hoping to pair the board low to beat J9 which feels like a probable SB holding). He bet out the flop and got a check-3bet back from a passive player. You think he would 4bet an overpair in this position? Or call two bets with just overcards?

This of course depends on the player reads, but you did specify SB passive post-flop and UTG tight.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 02:30 PM

If I miss on the river, the raise-the-turn-check-through the river costs me the same two BB as call-call. I raise the turn to get the extra bet in when I hit my flush or str8 on the river.

If the SB had a small 2 pair on the flop, like you mention, then the paired turn+river is also 3 outs for me.

Of course, a spade that doesn't boat-up SB is the best card for me on the river /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

ResidentParanoid

06-21-2005, 03:50 PM

My read on UTG is that he's raising or folding an overpair at some point after the flop. He hasn't done either. The He would bet many hands after being checked to on the flop, but he went into hibernation after a little aggression. I read that he doesn't have a hand to show down and is drawing.

YoureToast

06-21-2005, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this hand should have been folded. but if you decide to play, then the raise on the turn also seems like a mistake. check the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

same here....the raise on the turn was the worst part cuz you weren't likely going to get either of the two off a better hand and you needed a spade to win......in this case, getting the free card on the end was less useful since it was extremely unlikely you were ahead.

koa

06-21-2005, 05:09 PM

probably a call would of been better considering your read on the SB but I don't think the turn raise is that bad. But I think you should change your read on the UTG. I don't see him as tight if he is drawing with inside draw , he has to know his two overs are no good.

ResidentParanoid

06-22-2005, 10:24 AM

I had fairly limited information on UTG post-flop. But you are right, he should have gotten away from his hand after all the action on the flop. My turn raise definitely punished that mistake.

ResidentParanoid

06-22-2005, 10:28 AM

My turn raise was not trying to get anyone off of any hand. If I was ahead on the turn (unlikely) it gets more money in. If any of my draws hit on the river, (I'm almost certainly ahead then), I get an extra bet in on the river. If I miss, like I did, I check through at the same cost as calling down.

I think the only question is if I call on the turn, should I have called a river bet from SB unimproved? No one has commented on that so far.

ResidentParanoid

06-22-2005, 10:33 AM

No one commented on whether just calling the turn and folding the river unimproved is a better line.

On the turn, here are my three options:

1. Raise the turn with option of checking through on river unimproved (cost 2BB).

2. Call the turn, with plan to call the river unimproved (cost 2BB).

3. Call the turn, with plan to fold the river umimproved (cost 1BB).

Which is best here? Do you see any other options?

dbecham

06-22-2005, 10:46 AM

like i said before i think you have to call this river. If it didnt pair the board i would have no problem folding but this card could have negated one of SB's two pair.

MattiasL

06-22-2005, 12:05 PM

If you just call turn, the river decision is much harder. If we assume turn call - SB river bet - UTG fold, the final pot odds would be 14:1. Do you win this 7% of the time? It depends on the player read, but against a passive player I could fold this. Against many players I would not even consider a fold.

I think that only the fact that you want to call the river is what makes the turn raise a reasonable play.

The obvious risk is of course a 3bet from SB. A simplified attempt to calculate the EV:

First we calculate the cost of getting 3bet:
We assume that a 3bet simply costs you one extra bet when you miss (since you are now 100% sure that you are beat when you miss and SB bets the river. This could be a bit unclear if you hit the 10). And if you win you collect 2 BB (UTG folds turn, SB check/call river).

So 10 outs (9/images/graemlins/spade.gif and 10/J not counted) are 10/46 to win 2BB and 36/46 to lose 1BB. The cost of a 3 bet is 16/46 BB.

If you do not get 3bet, the cost is the same if you miss and you can get 1 extra BB when you hit. So you gain 10/46 here (the 10 may well be good also, giving you more outs).

So the play is +EV as long as you do not get 3bet more than about 40% of the time. That seems to be very Ok against a passive player.

(I am aware that the calculations above are far from exact, but I think the answer is close to correct)

MattiasL

06-22-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If you do not get 3bet, the cost is the same if you miss and you can get 1 extra BB when you hit. So you gain 10/46 here (the 10 may well be good also, giving you more outs).

So the play is +EV as long as you do not get 3bet more than about 40% of the time. That seems to be very Ok against a passive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. You get 2 more BB on the turn with no 3bet. So you can be 3bet about 60% of the time and still have +EV according to this logic.

ResidentParanoid

06-22-2005, 12:27 PM

Just quickly reviewed the odds/EV calculations, but that agrees with my intuition at the time, that it was an easy 3-bet on the turn vs a passive player.

MattiasL

06-22-2005, 01:10 PM

Yes. At the table you could do it quicker:
1. I will call the river UI
2. This means a raise is +EV as long as I am not 3bet
3. A 3bet from this player is improbable

ResidentParanoid

06-22-2005, 02:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. At the table you could do it quicker:
1. I will call the river UI
2. This means a raise is +EV as long as I am not 3bet
3. A 3bet from this player is improbable

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. The only fairly close decision is 1, but with the pot getting large, even that is a fairly quick decision.