Daily Hand Post: TPTK with AK

[jason_t]

Wynn 8/16 with CDC

Read on MP: I think he's a semi-rock, but others who played with him this weekend think he's a semi-LAG.

Preflop: I am CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
MP opens, donk cold-calls, I 3-bet, CDC 4-bets, MP calls, donk calls, I cap, CDC calls, MP calls, donk calls.

Flop: (21.5 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
MP checks, donk checks, I bet, CDC calls, MP check/raises, donk folds, I 3-bet, CDC folds, MP 4-bets, I call.

Turn: (15.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP bets, I fold.

[crunchy1]

I think that fold sucks. Call down.

[Grease]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that fold sucks. Call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I call down especially given that there have been disagreements about the way MP plays.

[HajiShirazu]

I guess calling down hoping for a split isn't the greatest, but couldn't he play AK this way? Either way pretty big pot, I don't like this, but you were there, if you know the guy is only 4 betting that flop with the set or top two then I guess laying it down is okay, just don't see how you could be so sure.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I call down especially given that there have been disagreements about the way MP plays.

[/ QUOTE ]
I assumed that this determination took place after the fact. I can find reasons to call down regardless of whether he's a semi-rock or semi-lag.

[chief444]

I sort of doubt even a semi LAG 4-bets the flop with another AK here after you capped preflop. I think this is OK since a flush draw just got there so you're chopping or have 3 outs at the very best and chopping seems unlikely.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is OK since a flush draw just got there so you're chopping or have 3 outs at the very best and chopping seems unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think either of those player types are 4-betting the flop on a flush draw.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think either of those player types are 4-betting the flop on a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AJ or JJ are the opponent's most likely hands here. K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is possible though. Basically, the flush card coming does reduce his chances of winning a little more.

[Paxosmotic]

Do you honestly think you're losing this hand more than 94% of the time? I understand that it looks grim but I think a calldown is warranted.

You have him read as a semi-rock, why the flop 3-bet?

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
why the flop 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Value with likely the best hand. Knock out CDC and play to showdown HU.

[chief444]

He needs to be good way more than 6% of the time. For one thing he has to call two bets to showdown. So he's really getting 17:2...not 15:1. For another thing when he is good he's likely splitting the pot. This makes a huge difference. For another thing when he is good the opponent sometimes has the flush redraw. This makes a slight difference.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think either of those player types are 4-betting the flop on a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AJ or JJ are the opponent's most likely hands here. K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is possible though. Basically, the flush card coming does reduce his chances of winning a little more.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. I had missed the flop 4-bet in my earlier posts.

I'm just too loose to fold HU on the turn with TPTK in a big pot that I already have quite a bit invested in (plus a lot of dead money).

[Nick C]

I think Chief is probably right and the fold is fine, but I would have called down.

Part of my justification for this is that I saw quite a few badly overplayed and badly underplayed hands during my first venture into B&M 6/12 this weekend. I think that in the 6/12 game I was playing, calling down could well be correct. (Being up against something like A3s/A3o or 77 wouldn't have been that unlikely at all.)

Also, though, I'm just not very good at laying down TPTK in huge pots that have become heads-up.

[mister]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think you're losing this hand more than 94% of the time? I understand that it looks grim but I think a calldown is warranted.

You have him read as a semi-rock, why the flop 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]


My thoughts exactly. I'd be inclined to think that you're going to have to run into AQ sometimes, and sometimes you're going to hit your K also (beating AJ). If that happens only 6% of the time you cash in.

[mister]

Also worth adding that if this guy is observant enough, he'll push you off TPTK every time a scare card comes. You can't let him do that all day.

[SippinSoma]

Read on MP: I think he's a semi-rock, but others who played with him this weekend think he's a semi-LAG.

Please provide the reasoning behind both statements.

[michaliv]

You have 8.5:1 pot odds. That is pretty good odds. The decision for calling this down would have to come from your read on MP. AK, AQ, AJ, JJ, KQs are his most likely holdings. 3 of those have you beat (AJ, KQs, JJ). 2 of those you are drawing dead to (JJ, KQs) and 1 you have 2-3 outs(AJ). The pot is so big I would have to be pretty sure of my read to not call him down.

[Bill C]

Hero doesn't have many draws. An Ace won't necessarily win, and one of the three kings is tainted, plus a King may not win it. Say we give Hero 3 outs. Pot odds of 8.5/1 aren't enough.

I think the reraise on the flop looks pretty sincere, too.

I'm gonna fold this one.

bill c

[mr pink]

umm... what?

[aK13]

Uhh...Am I missing something?

I'm calling down. You are putting him on AA, JJ or AJ (possibly KQs) only?

EDIT:

Actually, thinking about it more, KJs another option, QJs...

We're only ahead of AQ and AT (maybe A9) against his likely hand range of 4betting the flop...

Interesting.

[meep_42]

He could also be freerolling with AxK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

-d

[private joker]

Did you consider just calling the flop check/raise intending to raise the turn, charging CDC with 2BBs, and folding to a turn 3-bet?

Given that you took this line, the fold is probably okay. His flop c/r into a big field that likes their hands screams something like JJ or the nut flush draw. If he hit a flush you're drawing dead. If he has a set you're drawing close to dead. If he has AJ you have 3 outs. If you have him beat (with what, AQ? He has to know you have at least AK) or chopping, then that sucks, but I think most of the time you're behind.

This is, of course, based on your read and not theirs. But I like just calling the flop. I don't think CDC will 3-bet behind you, and you'll have a chance to charge him with 2BBs on the turn.

[shant]

i cant believe you are still making folds like this

call down, pot is huge

this is klepton

Edit: My brother is too lazy to login on his own account.

[einbert]

By reraising the flop jason is not giving CDC correct odds to see the turn with a pocket pair, but with your line CDC gets to try to make a set profitably (I think this is why jason took his line).

I don't like the fold at all. The pot is too large and you're playing live with someone relatively unknown. I'm seeing a showdown.

[S_Perry]

[ QUOTE ]
Read on MP: I know he's a semi-rock, but others who played with him this weekend think he's a semi-LAG. They are wrong and dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit your post thus and I like your fold.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Read on MP: I think he's a semi-rock, but others who played with him this weekend think he's a semi-LAG.

Please provide the reasoning behind both statements.

[/ QUOTE ]
I had played with this guy at an 8/16 table the night before with PBob. He had raised flops and folded to 3-bets, also raised some wierd hands, and made some bad call-downs. I wouldn't say he was a LAG, just not as tight and decent as Jason was telling me he was. He also seemed to be observant though, because he didn't like me or Bob and made some comments about our play.

Edit: This is not the hairy, mafia guy from Bob's other post if Bob happens to read this.

[jason_t]

Three comments:

1. There are some very bad errors in this thread concerning the odds that I'm getting calling down. chief444 and others have corrected these errors, but they shouldn't be there in the first place.

2. I'm surprised that no one has done a hand combination analysis.

3. Saying this fold sucks without giving good reasons sucks.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you consider just calling the flop check/raise intending to raise the turn, charging CDC with 2BBs, and folding to a turn 3-bet?

Given that you took this line, the fold is probably okay. His flop c/r into a big field that likes their hands screams something like JJ or the nut flush draw. If he hit a flush you're drawing dead. If he has a set you're drawing close to dead. If he has AJ you have 3 outs. If you have him beat (with what, AQ? He has to know you have at least AK) or chopping, then that sucks, but I think most of the time you're behind.

This is, of course, based on your read and not theirs. But I like just calling the flop. I don't think CDC will 3-bet behind you, and you'll have a chance to charge him with 2BBs on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want him seeing the turn with a pocket pair, especially one that holds a big /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Three comments:

1. There are some very bad errors in this thread concerning the odds that I'm getting calling down. chief444 and others have corrected these errors, but they shouldn't be there in the first place.

2. I'm surprised that no one has done a hand combination analysis.

3. Saying this fold sucks without giving good reasons sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Funny how #2 will clearly answer #1 and #3. This sort of falls in line with some comments I made in QTip's post earlier today. That is...it's hard to have a semi-intelligent discussion about a lot of limit poker hands without considering the math/expectation involved with certain decisions. Anyone ever notice how a lot of examples in probability texts involve cards?

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Saying this fold sucks without giving good reasons sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having sex with a stripper when we leave you behind as a practical joke sucks. Who cares about the hand, tell us about your stripper rash.

TT /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Wynn 8/16 with CDC

Read on MP: I think he's a semi-rock, but others who played with him this weekend think he's a semi-LAG.

Preflop: I am CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
MP opens, donk cold-calls, I 3-bet, CDC 4-bets, MP calls, donk calls, I cap, CDC calls, MP calls, donk calls.

Flop: (21.5 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
MP checks, donk checks, I bet, CDC calls, MP check/raises, donk folds, I 3-bet, CDC folds, MP 4-bets, I call.

Turn: (15.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP bets, I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are likely playing for a split at best, and could even be getting free-rolled vs. AKd. I think the fold is tough but correct. Nice hand.

[jgorham]

Jason, this fold doesn't suck. But it is wrong, IMO:

On the turn, there are 15.25 BB in the pot. If you call the turn, you are clearly going to call the river, so we need to look at this as you getting 17.25-2 on your money. So for a fold to be correct, you need to have less than 11.6% equity in the pot.

Assigning villain the absolute worst range for your hand: AA, JJ, AK, AJ, or KdQd, lets look at your equity (my numbers from pokerstove). 2% of the time, you will win outright (outdrawing AJ). 17% of the time you will tie the pot - so cut that in half its worth 8.5% equity. Together that is 10.5%, so just 1% short of what you need. So for you to fold to villain here, you need to be 100% sure there exist no other hands villain might play this way.

But your description of the player factors in here (only using yours, cause that is what you had at the time). He is a semi-rock, meaning not a player who is 100% predictable. He could be playing AQ this way (especially if the Q was a diamond). Or maybe he has watched you fold a lot, and has just decided to throw bets at you. Or maybe he has seen you bet a lot with marginal hands, and honestly thinks his AT here is good.

The point is, your equity edge is so thin that there is absolutely no margin of error on the hand range listed above. If any other hands are even remotely possible (which against 99% of players there are) then you can't fold this hand with a pot this large.

[jgorham]

Thinking about this hand, all of you who said "this fold sucks" without really thinking about it are doing yourself a disservice. The play is pretty close, and is only a call because the pot is SO large. Yet I would imagine if the pot were 8bb on the turn, some of you would still say "bad fold, large pot," when at that point a fold would clearly be correct. Listen to Jason and post your reasoning - you might learn something!

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Saying this fold sucks without giving good reasons sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've failed to find a poster in this thread who has not given reasons for saying that folding sucks.

(I will conceed that it's possible that some of the reasons given for saying folding sucks aren't good ones. Most all that I've seen are related to pot size - which I think is a pretty good reason.)

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. Saying this fold sucks without giving good reasons sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've failed to find a poster in this thread who has not given reasons for saying that folding sucks.

(I will conceed that it's possible that some of the reasons given for saying folding sucks aren't good ones. Most all that I've seen are related to pot size - which I think is a pretty good reason.)

[/ QUOTE ]

The first post in this thread was from you and it said

[ QUOTE ]
I think that fold sucks. Call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

You barely elaborated.