.. mlb one play 6-21

[scalf]

phils -117

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[dicelumpY2005]

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phils -117

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The only problem is that Philly is -165. I love them at that line, either way... The Mets couldn't win a series from the lowly Mariners, and Philly puts one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL out there tonight in Myers... Mets just 11-22 on the road, Phillies are 22-11 at home... Sounds like a recipe for a win to me...

[scalf]

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pitching change from overnight line..

betting new line phils bustout bet -162

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[mrbaseball]

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Philly is -165. I love them at that line, either way

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At what price do you like the Mets? I have this one as basically a pick'em which means I like the Mets a lot at this price.

Myers tough at home for sure but Benson no slouch. Mets 7-2 in Bensons starts (2-1 on road). A quick glance at the pitcher/batter charts shows Benson handling Phillies lineup a bit more effectivelly than Myers has handles the Mets. Phils have .641 OPS vs Benson but Mets have .914 OPS vs Myers.

Phillies still have slight edge but not enough to cover this line. The value here is on NY.

[dicelumpY2005]

Mr Baseball, let me ask you something (please enlighten me here...) Why are all your bets based on overall statistics, and not recent trends, the way teams are coming into the game recently...I guess the key word here being "recent"... The way I look at it, the Mets are coming into this game after losing 2 series on the road to teams far superior to the Phillies, IMO... (Oakland and Seattle) Shouldn't betting on baseball be a good mix of not only the statistics you are providing, but the recent trends as well? Let me know here...

[scalf]

shouldn't stats be corrected for ooponents and ballpark...regression techniques readily available..power numbers for year worth little..must know how teams and managers react in situations...jmho

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[mrbaseball]

I'm not a fan of streaks or trends. They can stop just as fast as they start. What I do believe in is current form. Phillies are in a bit better form right now but they are coming off 2 losing series themselves. And the season series so far is 6-2 Mets favor (1-1 in Philly).

I especially like current form in the starters and my favorite stat there is whip or MBA or WHpG or whatever you want to call it for the last 3 starts. Whatever you call it of all ML starters going tonight Benson has the lowest at 7.20 while Myers is a respectable 12.84.

What it means is Benson has been allowing fewer baserunners via hits and walks. It means he's hot and pitching well and getting guys out. It means he shouldn't be a +160 dog to anyone!

Philly just doesn't beat Benson 62%+ of the time that they need to do to break even with this line. I keep harping it's not about picking winners it's about picking the undervalued team and this is a classic example. Philly may very well win but it's a bad bet to bet them at this price and the Mets are a bargain at this price win, lose or draw. You get enough chances like this over the course of a season and you WILL be a winner. And if you give up enough edges like this you don't have a prayer.