Run Dick Run - the 2008 question

[slamdunkpro]

I know it’s only 2005 but time’s a wastin! Who do you think is going to try for the presidential nomination from both parties? Get out your crystal balls – I’ll archive this thread and pull it back out in 2008.

Please just party and name – no explanations more than a few words or flames of other posters.

I’ll start:

Democrats

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton – Makes the ticket
Mark Warner – Makes the ticket
John Edwards
Howard Dean
John Kerry
Al Gore

Republicans

George Allen – Makes the ticket
Condi Rice – Makes the ticket
Tom Ridge
John McCain
Jeb Bush

[Zeno]

New American Party: The Andy Fox/Zeno Ticket wins going away.

We declare a New American Empire and rule jointly, like the Consuls of Roman during the Republic.

WW III starts soon after. We are swiftly victorious and quickly deified by the public. Peace and prosperity are ushered in and the New Millennium dawns fresh and bold over the entire planet. After our joint illustrious rule of 1,000 years we ascend to the heavens via a fiery chariot pulled by twelve Pegasus-like chargers. We sit at the right hand of God, on gold –plated thrones, sardonically puffing on divine cigars, basking in glory, and conversing with Mark Twain - Who is an infinitely more pleasurable conversationalist than the Holy One.

-Zeno

[andyfox]

Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example.

[JackWhite]

Hillary vs. Bill Owens

[player24]

I woldn't mind seeing Clinton versus McCain. I would prefer McCain, but I could live with either of them as President - because they are each smart on the issues and politically pragmatic.

[jj_frap]

Russ Feingold/Bernie Sanders

Otherwise, America will continue to suck.

[Greg J]

Interesting predictions. You seem to actually know something about politics.

Predictions subject to change.

Likelihood of nomination in order:

Democrats:
1) Mark Warner
2) John Edwards
3) Bill Richardson*
4) Wes Clark*
5) Hillary Clinton
6) Joe Biden
7) Al Sharpton
Darkhorse VP Candidate:
Mike Moore (former Mississippi AG)

Republicans:
1) Bill Frist
2) George Allen*
3) John McCain
4) Dick Cheney (call it a feeling)
5) Bill Weld*
Likely VP choices not running:
Rudy Gulioni
Jeb Bush
Darkhorse VP cand:
Bobby Jindhal (LA congressman -- remember I said it first!)

* Likely VP candidate

[slamdunkpro]

I forgot about Al Sharpton. He may actually make a big enough dent in the primaries for the Democrats to actuall have to pay attention to him.

I'm curious though, why isn't Howard Dean on your list?

Do you really think Frist has presidential asperations? I considered him but didn't think he would give up his Senate post.

[Broken Glass Can]

Likelihood of nomination in order:

Democrats:
1) Hillary Clinton
2) John Kerry
3) Mark Warner
4) Joe Biden
5) Wes Clark
6) John Edwards
7) Bill Richardson





Republicans:
1) George Allen
1) Bill Frist
3) John McCain
4) Bill Owens
5) Dick Cheney
6) Jeb Bush
7) Rudy Guiliani



My gut tells me that it is a toss up between Hillary and Kerry in the primary, but Allen will take the GOP nomination and win in November.

[Greg J]

First I think this is a great thread b/c it represents a level of higher discourse -- more than just the partisan shouting match that happens here too often. Kudos SDP. And *BUMP* /images/graemlins/smile.gif

To yr inquiry. I don't think Howard Dean thinks he can win, and I think he likes his current job. I could easily be wrong. I also don't really think Hillary wants to run -- I think she likes where she is too, but she is being pressured to run from many different directions in her own party.

MArk Warner is my guy. He is moderate -- "on this issues" actually ranks him moderate right. He only has one term as governor under his belt, not much of a record, which is good. It makes him the Democrat most likely to win a general election.

Frist is, as far as I know, retiring in 06. I suspect he wants to run for President. Personally (as a Dem) I hope he gets the nomination, since he has one HELL of a record to attack and will probably get creamed in a general election. Examples: he was one of those "I will only serve one term" 1994 Contract with America guys, his unpopular actions re: Shiavo, today's abrupt reversal re: Bolton's floor vote, and just being a Senator. Senators usually don't do well in general elections, while governors do very well (more of a legislative record to attack).

Again, cool thread. Even BGC chimed in with some objectivity. Nice!

Oh, and I love Al Sharpton, but he won't be taken that seriously.

Other notes... Watch out for Bobby Jindhal. He is the Republican's Barak Obama -- young, super smart, a minority, and VERY charismatic. He came within an eyelash of winning the Governorship of Louisiana. I only wish he was a Democrat. (He is the guy that came up with the purple finger idea at the State of the Union -- good idea!)

[slamdunkpro]

It will be interesting to pull this out in 2008.

I think Howard Dean really believes he deserves to be president. At the very lease he’ll do New Hampshire and Iowa.

Hillary will run – no question, that’s what all this has been leading up to. The only fly in the ointment is that Howard Dean replaced Terry McCaliuf. The only question I have is will she unload Bill before or after.

I live in Virginia – Mark Warner is no “moderate”; he’s a true tax and spend Democrat liberal. I hope he doesn’t run because I agree he’ll be tough to beat.

I just don’t see Bill Frist throwing his hat in the ring – I think he wants to retire and go back to practice while he’s still fairly young. But don’t be surprised to see him try for another term.

I really think Al Sharpton will garner the votes to force the Dems to take him seriously, or at least give him some major party juice.

[thatpfunk]

Do you honestly think the Dems would risk running Kerry again?

[Broken Glass Can]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think the Dems would risk running Kerry again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the deluded ones think he won.

Re-Elect Kerry in 2008. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
I live in Virginia – Mark Warner is no “moderate”; he’s a true tax and spend Democrat liberal.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am not going to argue about this since you probably know more about VA poltics than me... but I know a true Democratic insider who knows a LOT about VA politics that says otherwise. I'll just leave it at that.

To be fair, I do take issue with many of "on the issues" rankings of left right.

[Zoelef]

Primary Runners only.

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton (hooray for mindless nepotism, contender even w/o the last name)
Joe Biden (cowtows to Republicans too much, dead by NH)
John Kerry (see Lieberman 2004, dead by Super Tuesday)
Russ Feingold (Kucinich's platform + Dean's grassroots = fizzles out by March)
Wesley Clark (Dear Wesley, please declare that you're running a little sooner this time. Contender, especially in the South)
John Edwards (His daddy worked for a mill owner? Electable, but probably can't get nominated due to inexorable link to Kerry. Democratic AG?)
Al Gore (A fresh start? He's not out until he's not in, and Dems will probably be more forgiving to his second chance than to Mr. Skull 'n' Bones.)

Republicans:
Bill Frist (Name rep, experience, and not a blatant Bush lackey. Contender.)
George Allen (Smells like a contender but I don't know a lot about him.)
John McCain (Doesn't appeal to fundies and doesn't suck up on command. Contender, but probably can't get nomination.)
Rudy Giulani (9/11 9/11 9/11...but I anticipate he'll probably run for Gov. of NY instead)
Jeb Bush (Does the country really want a Bush behind the desk for four out of six terms? Also, Schiavo Schiavo Schiavo. Doubtful.)
Bobby Jindal (I feel obligated to point out that yes, he's a rising star in the GOP, but he's still too young/inexperienced for the head job yet. 2016 perhaps?)

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Jindal (I feel obligated to point out that yes, he's a rising star in the GOP, but he's still too young/inexperienced for the head job yet. 2016 perhaps?)

[/ QUOTE ]
Yr right. No way Jindhal is running for President. I think he would make a GREAT VP candidate though.

[ QUOTE ]
Bill Frist (Name rep, experience, and not a blatant Bush lackey. Contender.)

[/ QUOTE ]
actually that might be some of the rap against him -- that he IS a Bush lackey (see his actions yesterday as one example). However, that won't hurt him so much in the primaries.

[Zoelef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Jindal (I feel obligated to point out that yes, he's a rising star in the GOP, but he's still too young/inexperienced for the head job yet. 2016 perhaps?)

[/ QUOTE ]
Yr right. No way Jindhal is running for President. I think he would make a GREAT VP candidate though.

[ QUOTE ]
Bill Frist (Name rep, experience, and not a blatant Bush lackey. Contender.)

[/ QUOTE ]
actually that might be some of the rap against him -- that he IS a Bush lackey (see his actions yesterday as one example). However, that won't hurt him so much in the primaries.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be wrong here - I was typing this up late at night. I don't pay that much attention to politics but merely believed that Frist was more of a generic Fundamentalist-friendly person than a "Bush lackey", but I don't know.

As for Jindal, I'd dare say he doesn't have the depth to be a VP yet - in 2008 he has less than two House terms total? Remember how people were jumping down John Edwards' throat for only having one Senate term? I'd sooner think someone like Chuck Hagel or Rick "Don't call me Dick" Santorum would get the nod, nominee-dependent of course.

[slamdunkpro]

After some thought - I think Bill Frist will only run for Pres if he runs again for the Senate in 06. This is the same issue that Hillary Clinton faces. If they lose or retire, they will be out of the public eye for 2 years.

[ptmusic]

Add:

David Dreier, Republican (CA) (out early, then makes the VP list, then forgotten after losing his House seat)


I'd like to see Edwards vs. McCain.

I'd hate to see Clinton vs. Bush (except for the fun coverage)

Your "makes the ticket" prediction would be a very tough and unpleasant decision for me.

-ptmusic

[slamdunkpro]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see Edwards vs. McCain.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just Democrat vs Democrat

[ QUOTE ]
I'd hate to see Clinton vs. Bush

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
...Frist is, as far as I know, retiring in 06. I suspect he wants to run for President. Personally (as a Dem) I hope he gets the nomination, since he has one HELL of a record to attack and will probably get creamed in a general election. Examples: he was one of those "I will only serve one term" 1994 Contract with America guys, his unpopular actions re: Shiavo, today's abrupt reversal re: Bolton's floor vote, and just being a Senator. Senators usually don't do well in general elections, while governors do very well (more of a legislative record to attack).

Again, cool thread. Even BGC chimed in with some objectivity. Nice!

Oh, and I love Al Sharpton, but he won't be taken that seriously.

Other notes... Watch out for Bobby Jindhal. He is the Republican's Barak Obama -- young, super smart, a minority, and VERY charismatic. He came within an eyelash of winning the Governorship of Louisiana. I only wish he was a Democrat. (He is the guy that came up with the purple finger idea at the State of the Union -- good idea!)

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in TN, and keep up with statewide politics. Frist is definitely retiring in '06. And for the record, he never said he would only serve 1 term, he said that he would only serve 2 terms which is what he will do.

He will run for President. He isn't at the top of my list, but I could vote for him.

I think Pataki is a good darkhorse candidate right now.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
And for the record, he never said he would only serve 1 term, he said that he would only serve 2 terms which is what he will do.

[/ QUOTE ]
I looked into this, and you are 100% correct. I stand corrected. I have imperfect memory recall... I must have gotten Frist mixed up with someone else.

[shots]

I think it'll be
DEMS:
Clinton/Clark
GOP: This one is tougher but I'm going with...
Allen/rice
I guess I agree with the original poster on everybody except that I think that when Clinton wins the primaries she will pick Wesley Clark for VP because everybody knows that he and the Clintons are very friendly and having a bonafied general on the ticket will be good for squashing talk of Hillary being weak on defense.

A few that will definetly not make it are:
-Cheny: Said he won't run and I believe him
-Dean: ditto
-McCain: doesn't have a chance of winning the GOP primary
-Sharpton: His chances are laughable

[riverdance]

eliot spitzer

[slamdunkpro]

[ QUOTE ]
I live in TN, and keep up with statewide politics. Frist is definitely retiring in '06. And for the record, he never said he would only serve 1 term, he said that he would only serve 2 terms which is what he will do.

He will run for President. He isn't at the top of my list, but I could vote for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not doubting you, but what chance does Frist think he has if he's out of the public forum for 2 years?

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
Not doubting you, but what chance does Frist think he has if he's out of the public forum for 2 years?

[/ QUOTE ]
Plenty. He does not have to shmooz the public, just the right Republicans in the right states (Iowa and NH). He is already starting this process.

Seriously, think about it. How many political figures outside of the public forum have gotten Presidential nominations? Bush in 2000 (versus a nationally known McCain), Clinton in 92 (vs a much better known Jerry Brown), Carter in 76 (no one outside of GA knew who he was)... none of these guys were visable to the entire country when they ran. Running for President is a targeted mission.

[slamdunkpro]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, think about it. How many political figures outside of the public forum have gotten Presidential nominations? Bush in 2000 (versus a nationally known McCain), Clinton in 92 (vs a much better known Jerry Brown), Carter in 76 (no one outside of GA knew who he was)... none of these guys were visable to the entire country when they ran. Running for President is a targeted mission.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but how many politicians were not currently in office when they ran? Other than Nixon. I think Reagan may have been the last.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, think about it. How many political figures outside of the public forum have gotten Presidential nominations? Bush in 2000 (versus a nationally known McCain), Clinton in 92 (vs a much better known Jerry Brown), Carter in 76 (no one outside of GA knew who he was)... none of these guys were visable to the entire country when they ran. Running for President is a targeted mission.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but how many politicians were not currently in office when they ran? Other than Nixon. I think Reagan may have been the last.

[/ QUOTE ]

Frist is kinda between a rock and a hard place. He pledged to serve only 2 terms if elected, and he wants to uphold that pledge. However, I agree with you that it would be easier for him to be in the day-to-day spotlight as Senate Majority Leader.