set of aces, 4 straight on board.

[chopchoi]

Pokerroom $20 SNG with $100 added. 4 handed, blinds 150/300, and about to increase. I''m BB w/ AA. I have about 3,900 chips, as does SB. 1 other player has about 3,500. The smalles stack is 2,500.

SB is pretty tight. He min-raises. I mean to re-raise to 1,200 but make a mistake and only raise to 900. He calls.

Flop is A,Q,J rainbow. He checks. The straight potential is scary, but my hand is strong enough that I want to make some money off of it. I don't want to bet him out of the pot. I figure if he has anything, he'll call a half-pot bet, so I bet 900. He calls.

The turn is a 10. F#ck! He leads out with the minimum bet of 600. I really don't see him doing this without the K. I call, praying the river will pair the board. It doesn't. He bets 600 again.


The small stack is weak, and I figure with 1,500 chips, I have a good shot of making it into the money, but with 900, It'll be hard. Would anyone fold here?

[Maulik]

I would have folded the turn, but you've almost committed yourself to calling here, haven't you?

I'd fold

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
my hand is strong enough that I want to make some money off of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You made your bed, now you have to lie in it.

With a board like that, I am shutting it down (by pushing) as soon as possible.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded the turn, but you've almost committed yourself to calling here, haven't you?

I'd fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Why should I fold the turn? I'm getting 7:1, with 10 outs.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my hand is strong enough that I want to make some money off of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You made your bed, now you have to lie in it.

With a board like that, I am shutting it down (by pushing) as soon as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered that, but then I thought, "There are only 8 cards in the deck that scare me (4 tens and 4 kings). The odds are that one won't come, and even if one comes, there's a good chance it won't help him, and even if it helps him, I have a strong redraw." So trying to milk him seemed like a good idea at the time.

[durron597]

The pot has 1800 chips in it and you have a scary board that your set of aces is unfortunately vulnerable on. There are 8 cards in the deck that you really don't want to see.

If he has AK, let him make the mistake of calling your flop push.

[gildwulf]

I would overbet this pot on the flop with a push (I recently posted a 30+3 hand with a similar problem).

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my hand is strong enough that I want to make some money off of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You made your bed, now you have to lie in it.

With a board like that, I am shutting it down (by pushing) as soon as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]
couldn't have said it better myself.

[chopchoi]

I don't want to be rude, and I appreciate everyones advice, but many of you are not answering my question. I did not ask if I should have pushed the flop, I asked if I should call the river. It's not just this post either. Often, when I read threds that other people have started, I notcie that those who reply do not answer the question that was asked.

I don't mind your saying that I should have pushed the flop, but please try to answer the original question es well (e.g. "You should have pushed the flop, but since you didn't, you should...").

Thanks, and I apolgize if I offended anyone.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

So trying to milk him seemed like a good idea at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate your desire to get maximum value from your strong hands- it's something I have been working on lately, as I have a tendency to shut the hand down when I am sure I am ahead. I _rarely_ continue past the flop in my games. If I do, it's because I have 3252526 outs, or I flopped the nuts.

(I think Gamboholic_ plays a similar style. It means I either end up with a huge stack from doubling up a few times, or I get broke early in the game.)

Chasing in SNGs is generally a very bad idea.

Save your extraction plays for a less scary board, and dare I say, a stronger hand. Against a tight player, it's highly unlikely that he wasn't helped by that flop... however unless he has *exactly* KT, you are ahead. Just push the chips in the middle and feel good about getting your money in with the best of it.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to be rude, and I appreciate everyones advice, but many of you are not answering my question.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are trying to explain that the reason you are in such a difficult spot on the river is because you made a mistake on the flop.

On the river:

The pot has 5400 in it, and you have to call 600. You are getting 9:1. Harrington's rule says that your opponent is bluffing at least 10% of the time. Who knows, maybe he has AT/QT/JT. Call.

You can also run ICM on this and plug in the probabilities associated with having the best hand, but you've only given 13800 chips and PokerRoom SnGs have 15000 so you must've made a mistake somewhere.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

you should not try and extract w/ a scary board take your money on the flop and be happy that you're ahead. As far as folding the river, you should. He called your large bets, and now he is leading the betting w/ an amount he thinks you will call. He made his hand, save some money and fold... you missed your opportunity.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]

You can also run ICM on this and plug in the probabilities associated with having the best hand, but you've only given 13800 chips and PokerRoom SnGs have 15000 so you must've made a mistake somewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about that. I post from work, and don't have access to the HH, or I would just post that. Anyway, I know I had 3900 and change, and the short stack had about 2,500. SB had a little more than me.

I don't remember what the other guy had. I gave him 3,500 because I thought would make it all add up to 15,000 (+ or - 200), but I screwed up the math.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

I considered that, but then I thought, "There are only 8 cards in the deck that scare me (4 tens and 4 kings). The odds are that one won't come, and even if one comes, there's a good chance it won't help him, and even if it helps him, I have a strong redraw." So trying to milk him seemed like a good idea at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that reasoning I assume you don't protect your hands against flush draws either? Afterall, there are only nine cards that can hurt you.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
you should not try and extract w/ a scary board take your money on the flop and be happy that you're ahead. As far as folding the river, you should. He called your large bets, and now he is leading the betting w/ an amount he thinks you will call. He made his hand, save some money and fold... you missed your opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The bet is 600 and you're getting almost 10:1, and opponent could still have QQ, JJ, AQ, maybe QJs or JTs... OP shouldn't be in this spot, but since he is, hero calls...

[durron597]

Alright using stacks of:

SB - 4200
You - 3900
Short - 2600
Other guy - 4300

Then if you fold your equity is: 13.8%
If you call and win: 36%
If you call and lose: 9.3%

If the probability of winning is x, then $EV(call) =
36 * x + 9.3 * (1 - x) = 26.7 * x + 9.3, which needs to be bigger than 13.8%

Thus x > 16.85%.... which means you need to have the best time approx 1/6 or better times in order to call. This isn't fully accounted for by Harrington's bluff rule, but I think it's accounted for by the the times the ten on the turn gave him two pair or he has QQ/JJ. I call.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The bet is 600 and you're getting almost 10:1, and opponent could still have QQ, JJ, AQ, maybe QJs or JTs... OP shouldn't be in this spot, but since he is, hero calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose for $600 more he should call, but in my observation when a player calls big bets then a card comes and he starts betting he almost always made his hand.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to be rude, and I appreciate everyones advice, but many of you are not answering my question. I did not ask if I should have pushed the flop, I asked if I should call the river. It's not just this post either. Often, when I read threds that other people have started, I notcie that those who reply do not answer the question that was asked.

I don't mind your saying that I should have pushed the flop, but please try to answer the original question es well (e.g. "You should have pushed the flop, but since you didn't, you should...").

Thanks, and I apolgize if I offended anyone.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are looking for a cure to the disease, and shunning the vaccination.
a little bit of prevention goes a long way.

[Sean D]

Looks like it may be a blocking bet by two pair, lower set. I think you are definitely good more than 1/6th of the time. Barring a great read on the player, I make a crying call.

[chopchoi]

The more I think about this, the more convinced I become that I was right not to push.

If he has KT, I'm going to pay him off one way or the other, so thais doesn't matter. What we need to establish is, how often will I be ahead on the flop, but lose the hand on the turn?

The only cards I fear are the 4 K's and the 4 T's. The odds are about 5:1 that one of these cards won't come. Now, if one does come, I only lose if he makes a straight. So, If a T comes, he needs to have a K, and if a K comes, he must have a T. Of all the hands he raised me with PF, how many would have either a K or a T? Half seems like a reasonable estimat. so we'll say he has a K 25% of the time, and a T 25% of the time. So, a scare card comes one time in 5, and it makes him a straight 1 time in 4. So, he will only take the lead on the turn 1 time in 20, and even then, I hvae a ten out re-draw. I lose here only about 4% of the time. Anyone who says I need to protect my hand is too paranoid.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says I need to protect my hand is too paranoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says I need to protect my hand is too paranoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

And people with a cunning way to extract chips by slowplaying are the first ones to go from the tables I play at. They often seem to think they got unlucky, judging by their chat.

[durron597]

You're thinking about it the wrong way. Mine and the rest of this board's line - you win 1800 chips on the flop or get the rest of your chips in while ahead. By letting him draw you allow yourself to make "HUGE FOLDS" or draw out on you.

Let him make the big mistake. And reread chapter 9 in Theory of Poker.

[adanthar]

Slowplaying's great on an AQJ flop in theory, but the thing about betting half the pot on a board like this after min-reraising is that any jackass can now put you on AA or 2 pair and play accordingly, ie, fold.

Therefore, just push, since anything that calls half the pot on a regular basis will put you on KK and call anyway.

[chopchoi]

I started a new thread on the push/fold question, titled "Do I need to protect my hand?"

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like it may be a blocking bet by two pair, lower set. I think you are definitely good more than 1/6th of the time. Barring a great read on the player, I make a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

perfect explanation of why you call here. if im the opponent and have A10, i bet the turn and river just as your opponent did.

[lastchance]

Um... If I have AT, I don't see the turn. Just poosh it.

Shove it in, because you're going to want this huge pot, and you don't really care if you're getting called considering the money already in the middle.

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to be rude, and I appreciate everyones advice, but many of you are not answering my question. I did not ask if I should have pushed the flop, I asked if I should call the river. It's not just this post either. Often, when I read threds that other people have started, I notcie that those who reply do not answer the question that was asked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well when you post a hand it is implied you want people to analyze the whole hand. As others have said, you screwed yourself earlier on, but you have to call this river. I see him min betting a turned trips or 2pr, but not betting more because he is afraid of the straight himself. Unfortunately he may also play the same way if he has a K...

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The bet is 600 and you're getting almost 10:1, and opponent could still have QQ, JJ, AQ, maybe QJs or JTs... OP shouldn't be in this spot, but since he is, hero calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose for $600 more he should call, but in my observation when a player calls big bets then a card comes and he starts betting he almost always made his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is often true, but check-call, bet, bet could easily be a donk slowplaying QQ or JJ (kind of the donk version of lead, check-raise, lead with a set), or hitting AT two pair on the turn.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Um... If I have AT, I don't see the turn. Just poosh it.

Shove it in, because you're going to want this huge pot, and you don't really care if you're getting called considering the money already in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if you have QT?

[lastchance]

Tougher spot, cuz he really could be checking an ace... I really don't know.